Moans, ramps and banter

[Scorcher]

 Greyhound81 The reason is purely the much stronger sun in April as well as the longer days. The October sun is weakening through the month and later on in the month is on a par with late February.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 raz.org.rain end of the week?! Why so long??

[danm]

 Earthshine drops to 11c tomorrow. I’ll be in Zurich tomorrow and Wednesday and it’s not going to get higher than 9c on Wednesday. 

Edited April 15 by danm

[raz.org.rain]

@CryoraptorA303 I reckon we could be seeing the beginnings of that significant change that was predicted for around mid-April. Just hope it persists through summer now, although I have a feeling that we'll be wishing for rain once the heat hits.

[cheese]

The next week looks pretty good. Would prefer it to be slightly warmer but I won’t complain.

[SunnyG]

 raz.org.rain I bet you it won't happen and we'll see rain again at the end of next week (or sooner). I don't trust ANY positive mid-long term forecast. They are 99% wrong.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

 raz.org.rain Kind of like a spring/summer 2018 redux. I have a feeling that is what will happen also. Just like with this year, I recall that we didn't have much of a spring that year and it more or less went straight from winter to summer from mid April onwards.

A 2018 style summer would be most welcome for many of us.

Edited April 15 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Sun Chaser]

This upcoming sunnier drier spell better last a while yet, we have some catching up to do. Here's the sunshine stats here for the first 3 and a half months of the year since 2018:

2018 - 293 hrs

2019 - 299 hrs

2020 - 313 hrs (this came before the sunniest May on record too)

2021 - 297 hrs

2022 - 293 hrs

2023 - 212 hrs (already dull)

2024 - 161 hrs (shocking!) 

 

* the only "recent" start to the year comparable to 2024 for dullness was 2013 which was infamously god awful, but even that managed 193 hours!

No wonder it's barely felt like spring at all. If 2024 wants to be considered a good year it'll need a classic late spring and summer, otherwise another one for the bin!

Edited April 15 by Sun Chaser

[B87]

 Greyhound81 20c is likely in both April and October here. April generally slightly warmer for the warmest day of the month, but they both average 2-3 days above 20c.

[CryoraptorA303]

 raz.org.rain  Sun Chaser

37 minutes ago, Sun Chaser said:

the only "recent" start to the year comparable to 2024 for dullness was 2013 which was infamously god awful, but even that managed 193 hours!

2013 turning up would seem to back up the "poor early year, much better summer" relationship, as July 2013 is the fourth hottest on record (above 2022 and 1976!) being only just edged out by 1983 and got the highest temperature since 2006 at the time. June was a bit naff but I wouldn't say it belongs with the infamous Junes of our history, it was dry and mostly average with sunshine. August thru early September is decently passable, being dry aside from the odd thunderstorm and a bit of a nothingburger otherwise, so nothing disruptive to summer plans. The September heatwave had good timing, right before the kids went back to school so one last beach trip etc..

July 2013 was off the back of the 2007-2013 aberration though, presumably such a repeat would see considerably higher temps for longer now and in the leagues of the classics like 1995 or 2006. Indeed the June-July 2013 period reads a lot like 2006 so one has to assume 2013 was an attempt at that and it did very well with what it had in the end.

As for concerns about "it's too early for another big heatwave etc.", 1975/1976, 1989/1990, 1994 if you want to count it/1995 and 2018/2019/2020 were all consecutive so there is no minimum time limit between years with big heatwaves. Wet soil also isn't a concern as many of these had infamously wet and miserable starts to the year like this one, and they all managed to get rid of it once the Sun came out for an extended period, 2020 perhaps being the most notable of these when we started with extreme wet and a prolonged dry and warm spell over April and May was able to completely turn it around and leave the ground desperately dry within the space of two months. If the weather really wants us to have a big heatwave then we'll get one.

Edited April 15 by CryoraptorA303

[cheese]

2013 was indeed a good summer - July was phenomenal and August was decent. June was a bit poor but otherwise I would take a repeat of 2013.

Edited April 15 by cheese

[Alderc 2.0]

Well there’s a rarity, a dry dog walk on a Tuesday morning! Sun was out but it’s cold in the wind! 

[reef]

Awful here this morning. Cloudy, raining, a persistent 20-30mph NNW wind gusting to 35-40mph and just 8.1C.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Sun Chaser Impressive stat for 2024 (for all the wrong reasons obviously, but impressive nonetheless). 

Lets bear in mind also, that very low sunshine hours figure has been compounded with well-above average rainfall. A tale of two woes. 

Anyway, I'm at the point now where there's not really much that 2024 can do weather-wise to redeem itself into a "great year on the whole. If we have a warm, dry and sunny late Spring and summer, then it'll be a passable year. But it won't erase the god-awful winter and early Spring. 

Because the reality is, we've had a quarter of the year more-or-less resigned to dross already. It's time that we aren't getting back, regardless of what happens in upcoming seasons. 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 SunnyG Undoubtedly. This week is already being downgraded from what it was.

A couple of days back, it was showing every day this week as dry and mostly sunny in my area, other than yesterday. Now today is likely to be seeing showers later on, and tomorrow also. 

Now Thursday and Friday look to be the only dry, semi-sunny days but - if we go by the same rule - they'll probably be downgraded by the time we arrive.

[SunnyG]

 CryoraptorA303 In London, 2013 spring and summer were awful. Awful. But I bet 2024 is gonna be worse.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

P!$$ing down with rain again, despite not being on the forecast (literally showing sun with a cloud right now!). 

Just no end to this dire, repeating, relentless unsettled pattern.

We get 24-48 (at most) hours of something more sunny and settled and then back into BAU of cloud, wet and windy.

I was going to pop to Portugal for a few days this week but I've now got an interview on Thursday which has scuppered my plans for that

Edited April 16 by In Absence of True Seasons

[Andy Bown]

 raz.org.rain after the last 6 odd months in my region and as someone who works outside, no I won’t be wishing for rain at any point! 

[danm]

45 minutes ago, SunnyG said:

In London, 2013 spring and summer were awful. Awful. But I bet 2024 is gonna be worse.

2013 Spring was cold, but the Summer was generally pretty good. June was chilly, but July 2013 was excellent with a 27c average maximum. August was also OK, with a 24.3c average max, a little sunnier than normal and about average rainfall. 

[B87]

 SunnyG Summer 2013 wasn't awful in London. June was poor, July excellent and August a bit better than average.

January to June 2013 was an extremely cold and dull period though. March 2013 was the coldest March on record at Heathrow, even colder than an already cold January and February.

Nothing short of a summer 1976 or 2022 repeat can redeem this year, because by mid October, there is zero chance of anything warm, dry and sunny.

Edited April 16 by B87

[CryoraptorA303]

Just now, danm said:

a little sunnier than normal and about average rainfall

And keep in mind a lot of that was from thunderstorms in the aftermath of July - Much of the month was quite dry aside from that. I remember near-continuous sunshine for most of the month. September also had that heatwave right before school holiday ended. Really it's the only very warm summer I'd be quite happy to repeat.

1 hour ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Anyway, I'm at the point now where there's not really much that 2024 can do weather-wise to redeem itself into a "great year on the whole. If we have a warm, dry and sunny late Spring and summer, then it'll be a passable year. But it won't erase the god-awful winter and early Spring. 

As I've said before, March-April and July have the highest expectations of the year. If we don't get warm and dry in March and April then the year is permanently tainted. September and October have the lowest expectations and people really aren't bothered about warm (or hot) weather anymore, if anything it's seen as an insult because there's a feeling of "why couldn't this have happened in the right season?".

Guess which year absolutely buggered up the March-April window and July, and had notable heat in the two months people care for it the least.

Funnily enough 1989 had an infamously horrendous start to the year before the situation significantly improved from May. I suspect there is some level of rose-tinted goggles going on here though and it wasn't quite as exceptionally well-received as it is now. 1995 had the same start to the year before it improved in April but that was so exceptional that both April and May could've been cold and wet and it'd still be remembered as a classic.

2021 is another case of this, we had the March mini-heatwave and then April was cold but very sunny and extremely dry, and July had the only hot weather of the year aside from September. Even though parts of 2021 really, really deserve the hate imo, it seems to be far less hated than it's hotter, more humid cousin 2020. Guess which months 2020 buggered up: Yep, March and July. And then it went ahead and had the most humid August known to man, before of course September was warm, dry and had a notable heatwave. This (along with the pandemic) is why it's so (imo) disproportionately hated for what it is.

[B87]

 CryoraptorA303 May 1989 was the sunniest month on record in London until May 2020. The summer that followed was warm and sunny. It would definitely have been received well these days.

[danm]

1 minute ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

If we don't get warm and dry in March and April then the year is permanently tainted. September and October have the lowest expectations and people really aren't bothered about warm (or hot) weather anymore, if anything it's seen as an insult because there's a feeling of "why couldn't this have happened in the right season?".

Not sure I agree with the above. March and April often have wild swings between warm and cold, it’s common at this time of year. Solar energy is enough to provide real warmth but SST’s and the Arctic is still cold enough to pack a real punch. It’s why Spring can be so frustrating as a season, because things can flip so suddenly. I.e. right now. I was in shorts, a t-shirt and flip flops on Saturday in 21c warmth. Today i have a jumper and coat on. 

I think September can now almost be viewed as a semi Summer month. It’s possible and becoming common to get heatwaves, or lengthy dry and warm spells. Yes it’s not great to get a hot September after a poor Summer, but it’s a month that can deliver. In fact it’s more likely to than May, which is the shoulder month pre Summer. You’d never get 5 consecutive days above 30c in May as we did in September last year. 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

5 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

if anything it's seen as an insult because there's a feeling of "why couldn't this have happened in the right season?

Definitely. It is a bit petty, but it's exactly how I felt about the warm, sunny weather in October (and to a degree, September) last year. 

I'd have much, much preferred that in July and August.

[MP-R]

I can only imagine how nice 1989 must’ve felt after the previous few years!