Moans, ramps and banter

[CryoraptorA303]

 Sun Chaser I still think there's a very good chance that this year's summer will be backended with August and September having the hottest and driest weather. Barring 2020 the most anomalously hot weather has been in either July or September since 2013 - and that one was just barely. August 2020's heatwave feels out of place as it's the kind of psychotic heatwave that belongs in a month like August 2022.

That gives me an idea: What would August 2022 look like with the August 2020 heatwave inserted?

I'll put the August 2020 heatwave first as the dates of the two major heatwaves overlap:

1st: 30.1°C Wisley
2nd: 36.4°C Heathrow, Kew Gardens
3rd: 34.6°C Burlands Farm
4th: 34.0°C Herstmonceux
5th: 35.7°C Burlands Farm
6th: 36.2°C Burlands Farm
7th: 35.7°C Burlands Farm
8th: 30.0°C Burlands Farm
9th: 30.2°C Westonzoyland
10th: 31.8°C Wiggonholt, Usk
11th: 34.2°C Wiggonholt
12th: 34.5°C Wiggonholt
13th: 34.9°C Burlands Farm
14th: 34.2°C Cambridge
15th: 32.1°C Coningsby, Cambridge
16th: 28.3°C Cirencester

While it misses 1976's record by one day, surely it's a genuine challenge for the most anomalously freakish heatwave ever recorded as it's overall consistently hotter than 76. Not to mention, knowing how the rest of August 2022 went, this must constitute the hottest month ever recorded.

The thing is, I can kind of see how this heatwave could've happened for real in 2020. Looking at the day after 35.7°C at Burlands Farm, Porthmadog reached 29.8°C which suggests that the wind turned easterly instead of continuing west as most receding heatwaves do. In that case there is a chance that the hot airmass fails to clear, after which it evolves into the 2022 heatwave and we get a freakishly long and hot heatwave overall.

If you want to beat 1976's record then I'd suggest holding this heatwave after a year like 2022, that way the ground is extremely dry, the initial heatwave loses less of its potential to evapotranspiration (and it's hotter than it was in 2020 in the first place as the ground wasn't horrendously dry in the epicentre like in 2022) and there's a lower chance of it collapsing in the transition to the second phase, and you'll probably get an extra two or three 30°C days out of it which will be enough to defeat the record. For maximum damage, you could have the August 2022 heatwave first, that way the 2020 phase will reach even higher temperatures.

If I was really going for the absolute maximum damage, I'd hold the heatwave over the July-August border so we're working with peak climatology throughout, and while that combined with the other factors might be enough to defeat the nonexistent 32.2°C record from 1976 as well, this somewhat defeats the purpose as I was trying to imagine the calendar month of August 2022 with a heatwave like this that would almost certainly propel it to the hottest on record.

[SollyOlly]

 Don yep, I was just about to say similar...'what winter'?! 

[CryoraptorA303]

 Bristawl Si Agreed, even with the showering in the first half of the day, the Sun came out for an extended period and it wasn't really cold, more just a bit windy on occasion. Comes off to me as a very typical April day tbh. I can think of much worse April weather.

[Sun Chaser]

Two days in a row, two sunny evenings in a row. It's felt amazing, like a part of me that's been hibernating for six months has been released. I feel the tide finally turning. 

[Don]

10 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

September having the hottest and driest weather

I hope not.....

[Frigid]

 raz.org.rain Ain't really a warm spell, more like a blip. Uppers during the weekend only make it around average. Of course, with clear skies it will feel pleasant.

The outlook afterwards puts us in a pretty chilly picture, hopefully it isn't the dull kind. 

[Snowy L]

Funny how northerlies being absolutely torrential showers after winter passes. Streamers pepping up out of nowhere as they move South and collect moisture from that famous sea in the middle of Northern England... If this was 2 months ago we wouldn't see a drop, or flake.

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

If this was 2 months ago we wouldn't see a drop, or flake.

If this was two months, we wouldn't be having northerlies!

[MP-R]

 Don Funnily enough this month’s synoptics wouldn't be at all out of place in February. 

[SollyOlly]

 MP-R Yep, wouldn't it be lovely to have seasons again, and the appropriate weather in them!  

[Josh Rubio]

Brr, it isn’t half cold out there right now!  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye, be warmer in Jan under cloud and rain

[MP-R]

 SollyOlly Amen!

[SunnyG]

 raz.org.rain I'll believe it when I see it. I don't think I will see it.

[SunnyG]

Once again, what looked like a spell of settled weather has become a settled couple of days. Forecasters should be better than this shouldn't they. Either the tech isn't up to it or they aren't.

[B87]

 CryoraptorA303 Octobers 1995 and 2011 were mild, dry and sunny.

1995

Mean temp: +2.0c

Sunshine: 113%

Rainfall: 29%

2011

Mean temp: +1.8c

Sunshine: 134%

Rainfall: 28%

I'm sure an extended heatwave without any cool spells could improve on those months.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 johncam No way!!! What a pain!!

[B87]

Even if the rest of this month has mostly sunny days, there's pretty much no chance we will even hit 150 hours, let alone average.

That would keep us on course for 1959s 139 hours, and keep 2024 on course to match 1959s sun hours within 2 hours in every month so far.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Bristawl Si Today was good! A nice seasonal day!!

 raz.org.rain I don't call 14/15c warm personally!

[raz.org.rain]

 B87 I wonder if 2024 still fits the 1995 analogue? I know it fits the 2018 analogue pretty well so far. I'm sure a repeat of either of those summers would be very welcome.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Don never again . Winter is extinct.

raz.org.rain I don't call 14/15c warm personally!

 Don never again . Winter is extinct.

raz.org.rain I don't call 14/15c warm personally!

 Don never again . Winter is extinct.

raz.org.rain I don't call 14/15c warm personally!

[B87]

 raz.org.rain March 1995 was Heathrow's sunniest on record with near 200 hours, with April being similar.

2024 so far has seen a very dull and wet March followed by a very dull April, with zero signs of warmth for the forseeable future.

[Don]

1 minute ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

never again . Winter is extinct.

Yep

1 minute ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I don't call 14/15c warm personally!

Depends on the time of year innit?!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Sun Chaser ive felt like this today. I feel a bit of hope. Which I haven't had I. The last month 

[Don]

1 minute ago, B87 said:

March 1995 was Heathrow's sunniest on record with near 200 hours, with April being similar.

Also had some nice snowy weather for some, including parts of the south, early and late in the month.