Moans, ramps and banter

[Don]

Although the winter coat remains away (for now!) it has felt decidedly chilly the last couple of days.  However, at least it has been fairly bright and sunny between the showers!

[Don]

4 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Middle!!! 25-30c is perfect.  Hell I would even accept 20-25c. I don't wanna boil in the mid 30s plus

Same here!

[Azazel]

 richie3846 at least they had a heatwave. We had a mildripple 

[TwisterGirl81]

 richie3846 not that I wish that on anyone, rather them than us after the weather we’ve had but at least they’ve had some real good spring warmth and sun unlike us, it’s looking like all eyes on May now until we see temps of anything close to 21c/70f or above. 
 

i saw the met office ten day trend and he mentioned about the wet winter we had, no mention of the wet autumn most of us had or the summer and spring which was wetter than average in many areas, many of us are very weary….Call it what it was, don’t gaslight us  

Look at all this blue in areas that are usually the driest 

Edited April 17 by TwisterGirl81

[raz.org.rain]

It's raining here for a change, except it's cold now.

[raz.org.rain]

Could we see a return of the fabled balmy breeze?

 

[TwisterGirl81]

 Azazel I feel for you, we had 6 weeks of lovely weather from mid May last year til the last week of June. July wasn’t great, august faired a little better but still below average, the first week of September was lovely and very warm but otherwise it’s been mostly pants…dull and wet for the most part, summer has to be better this year

Edited April 17 by TwisterGirl81

[In Absence of True Seasons]

Low cloud scuppering hopes of sun. What a surprise.

We just can't have nice things in this country.

[B87]

The last few days have felt more like March than April.

[marky810]

The last few days have felt like Jan round here. It's only the daylight that gives it away.

[LetItSnow!]

 B87 Good to counteract the February days that felt like April!

 

 

I see the El Niño pattern of chilly weather appearing in April is finally rearing its head. Another parallel to the ever growing similarities to 1998. Not an entirely dissimilar pattern to then either as late March 1998 was exceptionally mild with freakishly warm minima akin to early April this year, but then turned very unsettled afterwards then ushered in a colder period afterwards. Only difference then was the cold was more pronounced than this year will be. 

I honestly would not be surprised to forecast May 2024 as a mostly anticyclonic month from this analogue alone and I don’t even believe in year matching analogues.  

I think May 2024 will be mostly anticyclonic but with a few pronounced wet spells (probably thundery) meaning the month has near normal rainfall. I think it’ll be one of those months that is remembered fondly but not as a classic, not like May 2020, May 2018 or May 1989, but like May 2001, May 2008, May 2016 etc. 

[B87]

 LetItSnow! There were very few February days that felt like April. It was a very dull and wet month.

December was the 3rd dullest on record as well. When are we going to get a run of sunny and dry months, or even a single sunny/dry month that is also warm?

I can see May being like a repeat of 2021.

Edited April 17 by B87

[richie3846]

 TwisterGirl81 sorry for trying to inject a bit of positivity. I shan't bother again. Looking on the bright side is now gaslighting apparently??

 Azazel It was very nice for the few days we had it. Getting on for 20c for some places, not bad for mid April in my book, even if Europe was hot at the time. 

[richie3846]

 danm wow that's pretty nasty. I wouldn't swap our more temperate April for the ups and downs of Europe. 

[WYorksWeather]

In terms of the further look ahead, I'm sticking with my idea of May as being the month where it all changes. A record or near-record warm month, including at least one day reaching 30C, and significantly drier and sunnier than average.

I would say you heard it here first, but it's a suggestion quite a few people have made.

 

[raz.org.rain]

 WYorksWeather I'd be more surprised if May turns out to be another dull mild fest that somehow doesn't manage any exceptional warmth. Realistically we've got the ideal synoptics in place for a good turnaround in May.

Edited April 17 by raz.org.rain

[stainesbloke]

 richie3846 Yes, we’re certainly paying for a few very warm days last week, it’s absolutely baltic in that foul wind. Think it got to the dizzy heights of 9°C today, the joy is indescribable 

[WYorksWeather]

 raz.org.rain April so far has been exceptional to achieve such a mild mean temperature with very uninspiring synoptics, boosted by a notable lack of cold nights in the first half, but also exceptional SSTs meaning we achieve higher daytime temperatures than you'd expect for the pattern.

By May that option is really closed off I think. The CET min, mean and max for 1961-1990 averages are 6.7C, 11.1C, and 15.6C. If we wanted a notably warm month by modern standards, to average 2C or more about 1961-1990, you'd need an absolutely ridiculous set of south-westerlies. If we assume you split it maybe +2.5C by night and +1.5C by day, then you'd need minima of 9.2C and maxima of 17.1C. In a westerly pattern that's just ridiculous.

A few days or a week of that kind of pattern is possible given the SSTs remain extremely high, but the odds of it maintaining for an entire month are essentially zero. At some point you'd either end up introducing something more southerly or south-easterly and going drier, sunnier and even warmer, or more westerly which would still be wet and dull most likely but also cooler.

I suppose May 2022 is the closest as it was very warm, duller than average (80% of average sunshine), and near average for rainfall. I'm not sure there's ever been a notably warm May that was also both significantly wetter and duller than average across most of the country, though it definitely will have happened at particular stations depending on the prevailing pattern.

 

Edited April 17 by WYorksWeather
Edited to clarify that April has been mild by both day and night.

[Don]

1 hour ago, raz.org.rain said:

Could we see a return of the fabled balmy breeze?

It would seem that exceptionally warm temperatures always manage to make their way back, no matter what.....

[TwisterGirl81]

 richie3846 hey…cool your heels, if you read the part where I said gaslighting it was in reference to met office weather reporter saying we had a wet winter and I was thinking ‘and the rest’ it wasn’t a dig at you, relax ok 

[richie3846]

 TwisterGirl81 sorry, I jumped the gun there. I'm a little prone to that as I'm in recovery from complex PTSD.

 stainesbloke it sounds awful. At least in southern UK, days as cold as that in mid April are pretty rare. 

[TwisterGirl81]

 richie3846 it’s fine, no worries, I understand I’m sorry I didn’t word it clearly enough. Hope you are getting some support hugs.

Edited April 17 by TwisterGirl81

[TwisterGirl81]

 WYorksWeather May is actually our sunniest month on average here oddly enough so wouldn’t surprise me, fingers crossed  

Edited April 17 by TwisterGirl81

[TheOgre]

I want May to be the hottest, driest and sunniest on record after this crap. Give us a break.

[raz.org.rain]

 TheOgre I'd want a fantastic June, July and August too after the lemone we had last July and August.