Moans, ramps and banter

[B87]

 Don 14-15c in April is not warm, it's below average to average.

In May it would be exceptionally cold. May 1984 and May 1996 (Heathrow's 2 coldest Mays on record), saw average highs of 14.9c and 15.1c respectively.

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 SunnyG im not excited. Still too cold for me

[danm]

6 hours ago, AWD said:

On my way into London to pick up my job.  Left Bath & it was glorious, sunny & warm enough out the breeze.  Same at Chippenham, same at Swindon.  Didcot was even better, almost clear blue skies & a warm sun shining.

Get to Reading and it’s now cloudy & raining.  Looking east towards London and there are dark clouds and further rain visible.  Makes a change for the SW to be better than the SE.  Take me home please!!!  

It has to happen occasionally!! 

[Don]

1 minute ago, B87 said:

14-15c in April is not warm, it's below average to average.

No, but I wasn't necessarily referring to April though.  I wouldn't say 14-15C is below average for mid April, even in this ever warming climate!

Edited April 16 by Don

[B87]

 Don 15.0c is the average for mid-April here. In early April 13-14c is typical, rising to 16-17c in late April.

Edited April 16 by B87

[Don]

 B87 Ok, that sounds about right for in and around London.

[CryoraptorA303]

3 minutes ago, B87 said:

it's below average to average.

Firmly average in the south and above average elswhere.

15 minutes ago, B87 said:

1995

Mean temp: +2.0c

Sunshine: 113%

Rainfall: 29%

2011

Mean temp: +1.8c

Sunshine: 134%

Rainfall: 28%

I'm sure an extended heatwave without any cool spells could improve on those months.

Neither of those get anywhere near the quoted figures. >150% sunshine (has this ever even been reached in October at all?) & >30% rainfail and an anomaly in the region of 3°C is just an impossible combination for physical reasons. For a >+3°C anomaly in October you'd need the first 15 days to be very warm, with the nights still short enough and the wind strong enough to not have inversions get in the way and have nights stay warm as well, and then an extremely mild period with heavy cloud, likely frequent rain and next to no variation between day and night temperatures, essentially a version of December 2015 but in October and the first half of November. The very warmest Octobers on record were mostly extremely mild like this.

[B87]

 CryoraptorA303 October 1997, 1999 and 2003 all saw more that 140% of average sunshine, so it's not inconcievable that one could break the 150% barrier.

A 20c October would almost certainly do it with a 2 week heatwave and then a 2nd half of near average temperatures and sun.

[Wold Topper]

What a carp day today, 6.5°c at 8am on my drive to work in the pi55ing rain, reached 9°c this aft when the rain cleared and the sun made an appearance, currently 4°c this evening, pretty carpy for April despite what some may claim....

[Azazel]

So the rest of April looks uninspired and cold - if May is the same then I feel we can definitely say something has really tangibly changed in our climate since 2020 which is worrying.

I can’t cope with 9/10 months of autumn/winter every year. 

[Alderc 2.0]

The outlook remains drier but looking pretty meh, I’m still not convinced we’ll see anything overly sunny and certainly looks like average days and cool nights. Nothing warm, dry and sunny for many. 
 

Actually take that back, looks really quite chilly at the surface, looks like it’s going to well into May before any length of dry, sunny and warm period materialises, really disappointing I won’t see any warmth before i leave. 

Edited April 17 by Alderc 2.0

[I remember Atlantic 252]

looking vile on GFS, especially from Mon 22nd, cooler than many days in Jan and Feb

[Alderc 2.0]

Completely grim

[raz.org.rain]

Hopefully the cold gets massively downgraded as it has continually been throughout winter, and we see a very sudden flip to warm conditions in May.

[Scorcher]

 B87 Those sorts of temps are not 'exceptionally cold' in May, even in London. Cooler than average yes but it's not unheard of for temps to struggle to get out of double figures in May- even in the south.

May 28th 2007- max of 7.4C at Heathrow. Now that is exceptional.

 

Looking back over the last few Mays as well- Heathrow has had a fair few days at 14C or below.

[raz.org.rain]

Weather app can't seem to decide on which direction the wind will be coming from at the end of the month. I'd expect this cooler weather will indeed get downgraded to a few days.

[Scorcher]

 Alderc 2.0 Looks bad but those charts always look worse than the reality. April 2021 looked terrible in terms of the 850 hPa temps but it was very sunny and much better than this month so far in that regard.

The night time frosts are a problem (and annoying) but strong sunshine (if we get it) in the day now will raise temps higher than many are expecting.

On the south coast you will do okay in a NE flow.

[SunnyG]

 Alderc 2.0 It's been grim for over a year so nothing new there. We may get a mix & match of the worst features of April/May 2021/2023. Yuk yuk yuk. I am working towards leaving the country but this time I don't think I'll make the mistake of coming back lmao

Edited April 17 by SunnyG

[midlandsun]

Feels more like a cold November day in this wind. Absolute joke,.when is it going to bloody warm up.

[B87]

 Scorcher But they would be exceptionally cold for a monthly average in May.

7.4c in 2007 is the coldest May max on record.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

3 hours ago, Azazel said:

So the rest of April looks uninspired and cold - if May is the same then I feel we can definitely say something has really tangibly changed in our climate since 2020 which is worrying.

I can’t cope with 9/10 months of autumn/winter every year. 

My sentiments exactly. It's a real worry.

12/13/14c for the rest of April, and for SE England no less! Something not quite right indeed.

Realistically, if Spring drags it's feet to warm up, it's usually late May / early June that you need to wait until for anything properly warm and sunny to arrive. 

Then if you get a bad July like 2023 or 2021, that's the "centre" of summer ruined. Augusts tend to be cloudy and stormier these days, so then it's only September that can bring a slight reprieve which by that point feels like a slight kick in the teeth given the shorter days and lower sun strength. 

My point is...if we have a poor Spring for sun and warmth, we effectively are left with just a 3-month or so window of time for warm, sunny weather. 3 months...out of 12. That's it. 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Alderc 2.0 Very similar set up to last year, looks like.

It's a shame, but you basically have an entire summer of near guaranteed warm, sunny weather awaiting you!

The rest of us will be stuck with whatever manifests in the British summer-time lol.

[CoventryWeather]

I'd take the next few days, drier. Shame it's fresh but I'd rather have this than rain all day. 

Think the warm dry weather we are all after will be early to mid may.. and seems to fit the LRFs nicely for the summer. Wonder if we will see a summer with an Azores Low anomaly again? 

[Scorcher]

 B87 Yes as a monthly average. I thought you meant the odd day. It wouldn't be out of the ordinary for a dull, rainy day to max out at 12-14C in London in May.

[TwisterGirl81]

Currently at my allotment, it’s 10c here and a cold breeze, that’s well below average, I can’t wait for some warmth hope we don’t have to wait until mid May like last year