Moans, ramps and banter

[TwisterGirl81]

Heating has automatically turned on again for half a. Hour then turned itself off, you know I have had central heating for years and only realised this year that it comes on if the temperature inside goes below I think 19c not just at set auto times it’s chilly out there.

Is that what the screen means? 

Edited April 26 by TwisterGirl81

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Cloud all day today ... I expected nothing else ...

 TwisterGirl81 That's cold! Mine comes on below 21  

[TwisterGirl81]

 *Stormforce~beka* I don’t blame you, it used to be that temperature for us too but i lessoned it last winter when I finically decided to properly program it via a youtube video I followed not sure if it saves many pennies. 

We had sun this morning then it clouded over late morning to the usual grey sheet and has been raining the past hour, feels cosy though….I having a feeling the weather is going to flip to something sunny and warm mid May just like last year 

Edited April 26 by TwisterGirl81

[WYorksWeather]

Just posted about it on the model thread, but a very pleasant later period to tonight's GFS. High pressure dominated for most, consistently warm in the 19-21C range for about five days in a row beginning at about day 11 or 12. Still a long way away of course but nice to see this after the pretty good 00z that was posted earlier.

Again though, the difficulty with decent weather lately has been getting it to actually verify, so a long way to go...

[baddie]

 Summer8906 With the way models are going (Warm and Thundery BH weekend, then cooler and drier), I wonder if it would be a May 2023 repeat but the fine spell starting a few days earlier. I would hope something like that does happen. i would say one good thing about this chilly spell we just had was that May wouldnt be as spartan and bland, tough probably still somewhat spartan

[Summer8906]

One thing about the current cold spell is it came about 2 weeks too late.

By mid month most of the spring blossom was already past its best, due to the extremely mild weather of the first half of spring.

If the cold weather had come in two weeks earlier, and it had then turned warmer (and dry!) in the second half of April, the blossom might have been delayed coming out and then we'd have been able to enjoy it in the 2nd half of April.

As it is, never mind the weather, this is definitely the least pleasing spring from a nature POV for many years. Persistent mildness made the blossoming very transient and it already feels like spring flowering is in decline, as I feared might happen back in March.

Much better would have been for Feb and March to be cold, April about average, and for the warmth to arrive now rather than in winter....

Edited April 26 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

 baddie True, I think it's helped somewhat: though as I said above, the cold spell came about 2 weeks too late!

[B87]

 WYorksWeather It's taken this long for something springlike to actually arrive. It's what I would expect as standard in May, so it better happen.

Still no sign of any proper warmth though.

[richie3846]

 Summer8906 it's interesting that the late trees, especially ash, are now probably going to leaf fully, around the average time, in early May to mid May, WAY behind the trees which were more responsive to the early season warmth. 

[johncam]

 *Stormforce~beka* surprisingly another nice bright day here 

 

[WYorksWeather]

 B87 I suppose it depends on conditions. 20C in May with sun is properly warm in my book. Cloudy and with a strong breeze, then no. I think 20C is right around the cusp where it does very much depend on the surface conditions as to whether I'd consider it warm or not.

Personally, assuming relatively typical surface conditions (let's say for argument's sake, a light breeze, sunny intervals, and moderate humidity), my personal warmth scale would be something like this:

20C - neutral

22C - warm

25C - very warm

28C - hot

32C - very hot

35C - extremely hot

Obviously, it's very person-dependent, and conditions could vary this massively. A stiff breeze could make a 20C day feel quite cold for shorts and T shirt - there were quite a few days like that last May here. Equally I remember a 27C late afternoon last June when I was leaving work which actually felt very hot with the humidity. As it turned out, weather apps were showing feels like 32C, so it wasn't just me.

[B87]

 WYorksWeather 20c days are pretty common in May (around 10 days on average), whereas something like 25c typically only happens on 2-3 days in May on average, and 27c maybe once a month. I'd consider 25-27c 'proper warmth' for May. 

 

I change what I would consider warmth based on the time of year; obviously in July, 20c would be poor and 25c pretty close to average.

Edited April 26 by B87

[Summer8906]

 richie3846 Interesting, yes. In fact there are a small number of blossoms which are coming out around the normal time, a few local cherry trees are always a little later and the apple blossoms seem not too far ahead of average.

It indeed seems anything which avoided coming out in the silly mild earlier in the month and in March has been held back further by the current cold (and this week, dull) spell.

Edited April 26 by Summer8906

[WYorksWeather]

 B87 I meant more universally in terms of how it feels to me, which doesn't really depend on time of year between about the start of May and mid-August as the strength of the sun is relatively similar.

In terms of how unusual it is, you're right that 20C days are pretty common at your location. I'm guessing in May 2020 when the average was near 19C for the CET region you were possibly even averaging 20C or higher?

Of course up here it's quite different - we generally learn a slightly higher tolerance to cold. Anything about 18C and up if it's not either windy or raining, you'll see plenty of people out and about in shorts and t-shirt walking, sitting out at cafes, etc. I guess we have to make the most of it a bit more!

If summer-type activities up here were limited to properly warm days of say 22C or higher, it'd be pretty grim.

[Summer8906]

 WYorksWeather Depends partly on the time of year, too. For example 20C would feel:

March - hot

April - very warm

May - warm

June - neutral

July and August - cool

September - neutral, becoming warm

October very warm

[B87]

 WYorksWeather Last 10 Mays here averaged the following:

2023: 18.6c

2022: 20.2c

2021: 16.5c

2020: 21.1c

2019: 18.6c

2018: 20.8c 

2017: 19.8c

2016: 19.0c

2015: 17.6c

2014: 18.0c

For July and August at least, anything below 22c usually means cloudy, so a long stretch of 22c would be pretty disappointing. A few 22C sunny days mixed into the average week would not be an issue, however.

For the Jun-Aug period, I'd go with the following, assuming standard light breeze and partly cloudy skies:

<18: cold

18-21: cool

21-26: neutral

26-29: warm

30+: hot

 

Edited April 26 by B87

[Summer8906]

 B87 Interesting that only one year (2021) has failed to reach the "classic" southern England May maximum of 17C at your location - and then only just.

It does seem to be true that cool weather in July and August is never sunny. By contrast, it can be in May (e.g. part of May 1996 was distinctly sunny despite being cool) and can in the second half of September.

I can't remember a single instance of a cool and really sunny spell in July or August. August 2014 was relatively bright in the cool spell, but I wouldn't call it sunny. The northerlies required for a cool sunny combination invariably lead to extensive Sc buildup during the day.

June cool sunny weather is also rare but has happened, the first full week of June 2005 was sunny but failed to reach 20C, it was a distinctly unusual spell, quite a biting northerly wind but also sunny, more like spring than summer in feel.

Edited April 26 by Summer8906

[B87]

 Summer8906 May 2013 was even worse, with only 16.2c. The coldest Mays in the entire Heathrow record were 1984 and 1996, with 14.9c and 15.1c respectively!

Cool and sunny summer months are rare but can happen in June and August. June 2008, August 2007 and August 1993 probably the best recent examples. I suppose August 2014 was another example here. Average max a chilly 21.7c but with 204 sun hours (vs the avg of 202).

Cool and sunny Julys are very rare, with only 1985, 1977 and 1964 in the entire record. 1977 was borderline as well.

Edited April 26 by B87

[WYorksWeather]

 B87 Yep definitely shows how much difference a relatively short distance between us makes. Can't go back as far as you without finding a different source but using Ryhill for the last three years, I get:

2023: 17.4C

2022: 17.1C

2021: 14.3C

Minimum of around 1C cooler than yours and more typically 2-3C lower. I would say that Ryhill tends to be about 1C lower than my experienced temperatures though as I live in a more built up area, so it probably exaggerates things somewhat. Ryhill is in a really rural spot.

[Summer8906]

 B87 Mind you May 2013 wasn't so desperately wet and dismal and had dry periods at times.

I remember May 1984, an incredibly cool, dull and wet month. There was a cyclonic easterly all month with low pressure over or just south of southern England. The first week or so was alright, then it was just endless rain and gloom. Thankfully JJA were all warm and sunny!

May 1994 was very similar to 1984 but evidently not quite as cold.

May 1996 was less of a trial as the first half of the month was bright despite being cool. The worst weather was over the weekend of the 18th/19th when the Sat was wet and incredibly cold, then on the Sun there was an unseasonable gale. The rest of the month until the 29th was milder but with dull wet Atlantic conditions dominating, though through sheer good luck 2 out of the 3 Bank Holiday days were decent, and the month ended with 2 sunny days.

Edited April 26 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

8 minutes ago, B87 said:

Cool and sunny summer months are rare but can happen in June and August. June 2008, August 2007 and August 1993 probably the best recent examples.

True, though the cool and the sunny mostly didn't occur at the same time. August 1993 and 2007 seemed to be a mixture of warmish and sunny weather, and cool cloudy weather.

8 minutes ago, B87 said:

Cool and sunny Julys are very rare, with only 1985, 1977 and 1964 in the entire record. 1977 was borderline as well.

Don't remember 1964 or 1977 but I do remember 1985, it was very much a month of two halves, sunny and warm until Live Aid (13th) and then mostly cool, wet and windy aside from a brief warm spell in the 4th week. So again the sunshine and the cool didn't come at the same time - it would be interesting to note if either July or August have ever featured a few days that were both sunny and cool (by day).

Edited April 26 by Summer8906

[raz.org.rain]

I would honestly laugh if at some point in May we leap straight into summer heatwave weather and end up stuck with that through to September. Nine months of autumn and three months of summer. Sod's Law says that if we can end up stuck with perpetual autumn for so long, at some point we'll end up stuck with perpetual summer. 

[B87]

 Summer8906 June 1962, 1967 and 1969 were also cool and sunny months. June seemed to be the only month in the 1960s that was actually sunny at all, with generally most months being cool and cloudy for the entire decade.

June 60-69 averaged 213.1 sun hours, which is higher than the current average of 208.4 hours. Every other month in the 60s was very dull.

Edited April 26 by B87

[WYorksWeather]

 raz.org.rain I think four months of summer is theoretically possible - if we assume the envelope at which 30C is reasonably plausible (barring freak heat spikes) runs from mid-May to mid-September. In the future, this will probably extend to the first half of May and second half of September as well.

EDIT: meant to add - not likely though!

Edited April 26 by WYorksWeather

[B87]

 raz.org.rain Hopefully! Don't want 3 months of spring to start on 1st May and eat into valuable summer time.