Moans, ramps and banter

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 B87 I feel like most people would prefer the sort of weather we get in September nowadays, in April or May. I certainly would. 20c+ weather in Sept feels like a tad of a waste, especially in the latter half of the month.

[B87]

 In Absence of True Seasons The average temperature in September is 20.2c so it's hardly a waste. 

Typical September weather would be pleasant for most.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Daniel*ours has been on and off today too 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Beautiful ....

[TheOgre]

I think I’ve happened to avoid the absolute worst of the weather being in Somerset instead of Derbyshire this week. Tuesday and Wednesday had sunny starts, cloudy noons/early afternoons and sunny late afternoons and around 13C. Today has been cloudier all day and windy but where I live it has been just 8C today !!

[Azazel]

Heating on full whack here. Can see my breath outside. Vile. 

[SunnyG]

 

Cold dry weather, yeah that worked out well....

Edited April 25 by SunnyG

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Frost tonight too, will be warmer in 8-9 months, raging SW'lys double digit temps feeling balmy

[In Absence of True Seasons]

  *Stormforce~beka*Quite literally looks like someone was pulled a giant cotton wall blanket / duvet over the sky. What a pretty shade of grey 

[CryoraptorA303]

 I remember Atlantic 252 With any luck the Nino backending will have worn off by then and there may be some chance of winter synoptics occuring in actual wintertime. A light La Nina beginning in around September would kill it by October and lead to more seasonality for the period, ENSO-neutral would probably see an autumn 2016 repeat with summer synoptics continuing into December and then rapidly giving up and switching to a more frontended year like 2017.

We have suffered the worst of all worlds in the last year, Super El Nino + positive IOD + sky high SSTs even without El Nino + late deep SSW. Horrible, vile combination that hopefully doesn't recur anytime soon.

We could do with quite a long ENSO-neutral period now, around 2-3 years, or at least only very mild Nina/Nino events for the next 4-5 years. This constant back and forth between El Nino, triple La Nina and Super El Nino is exaggerating the growing extremes we were already seeing without them. ENSO-neutral winters are really a 50/50 with them either being extremely mild like 2019/20 or 2013/14 or cold like 2012/13. For springs and summers though they have a good track record, spring 2020 was the last neutral spring we had and July 2013 occured in the last true neutral summer. I can't think of any serious stinkers that occured during true neutral. Something like 2003 (not a stinker but for the purposes of definition) which is technically neutral doesn't really count as that's post-Nino and the global climate was still clearly being affected by it at the time.

[Catbrainz]

Hello am I reading the charts wrong? GFS 12 doesn’t look terrible next week after the low dips down to Iberia meaning the U.K. is back under orange below that black line. 

[CryoraptorA303]

 Catbrainz Indeed GFS 12 has thrown out something more positive but there's no cross-model agreement yet. It's something to keep an eye on.

[MP-R]

 In Absence of True Seasons Any good weather in September I would welcome with open arms given it’s in the Atlantic half of the year. Anything to delay the onset of the depressing season.

[raz.org.rain]

The hv6999jxe blog is going for a "decent summer" as they describe it;

"I expect UK summer 2024 to be a “decent” summer, as I’ve eluded to many times on social media over the last few months. However, I expect it to start off as a bit of a slow burner, more especially June, with July and August the 2 months I would expect the warmest weather. 

I also believe we’ll see a significant increase in thundery plumes bringing plenty of thunderstorms up from the near continent this coming Summer!"

I'm inclined to agree. I don't expect a repeat of last July/August as a strong El Niño won't be a factor. I get the impression that a neutral or even a rapid flip to La Niña could actually help to flip us into a drier and warmer pattern this summer, considering we're already stuck in a wet pattern.

[CryoraptorA303]

 raz.org.rain I'd say it's August and September even that have the highest chance of seeing the warmest and driest weather of the season. The post-Super Nino and SSW are conspiring to make this year heavily backended.

Really we're just waiting for the affects of the late season SSW to wear off for the wetness to stop, depressions in the Atlantic as of late are getting much weaker than they were in early April and before.

June itself won't be special, I could see it being a bit of a May 2018 even with the thunderiness angle, July might have the first notable heatwave of the year and, assuming May isn't, could be the first drier than average month for most since June last year (0_0!), and then August will be the hottest month of the year with the final big (and possibly hottest, climate change is coming for the 1906 record) heatwave in September. What happens after that is heavily up to what happens with ENSO, as ENSO-neutral after this point would likely mean continued backendedness which means a dry, probably sunny autumn, while a new La Nina event (can we just not have neutral for a while please?) would likely see the backending stop by mid-October and we could actually see a colder than average Nov/Dec.

[raz.org.rain]

 CryoraptorA303 some positive signs for May at least 

 

[CryoraptorA303]

 raz.org.rain Hopefully this somehow escalates to the earliest 30°C on record, as my hair is now starting to get annoyingly long and I'd like a haircut Would also be just in time for a family wedding.

[TwisterGirl81]

 raz.org.rain god I hope so  as I sit here on the sofa with a throw over me, candles lit and the heating on with a hot cup of black tea….feels like autumn!

Has anyone been watching ‘Fallout’ on Amazon prime? Just about to watch 2nd episode, pretty good so far. 

 

Edited April 25 by TwisterGirl81

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 TwisterGirl81 No ... I'm still trying to get kids to sleep. I don't get free time for TV!

[Frigid]

15 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Hopefully this somehow escalates to the earliest 30°C on record

Going from one extreme to another, rather not tbh.. 

Wouldn't mind a few weeks in the mid teens with endless days of sun. 

[B87]

 TwisterGirl81  TwisterGirl81 I need to watch that. Love the games.

Could do with a summer that resembles the Mojave Wasteland.

[B87]

 CryoraptorA303 A June version of May 2018 would be warm and very sunny. Not a bad month at all.

Both June and August are both well overdue massive sunshine totals, like 300 hours each. Would still only have us at average for the year so not too outrageous to ask for.

[TwisterGirl81]

 B87 aha ha maybe not quite as barren, I still like to see some greenery. Lots of sun, 25c and overnight thunderstorms and rain will suit me fine.

i didn’t realise that it was based off a computer game? I don’t play computer games, not even candy crush 

[B87]

 TwisterGirl81Fallout was/is a game series. The Last of Us was another series based on a game that was actually really good as well. 

[TwisterGirl81]

 B87 oh The last of us was sooo good! Can’t wait for season 2