Model banter and emotions

[MJB]

3 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

promising Northerlies for weeks

That's a slight exaggeration I know 

[mountain shadow]

 MJB No, it isn't.

There long range forecast has been promising Northerlies for weeks, buy keeps getting delayed.

[raz.org.rain]

The Met Office updates are still suggesting colder conditions it would seem, I wonder if they're hesitant to update with how abruptly the model outputs have backed away from the idea of colder conditions? As things stand, I'm not inclined to believe that anything notably cold will develop.

Edited February 7 by raz.org.rain

[mulzy]

 raz.org.rain But it is the start of the widely expected backtrack.  Agree with you that cold snowy conditions are a very outside bet now.  As others have indicated, the one thing I have seen in the modeling is lower heights being progged at our latitude which ties in with the extended part of the MO forecast.  Northern parts of the UK are probably in pole position to get any colder conditions.

Edited February 7 by mulzy

[raz.org.rain]

 mulzy yeah, I don't think I've seen anyone mention the possibility of a north south divide. We could very well end up with Scotland in a deep freeze while England and Wales get some balmy weather. "Chances of colder conditions" could mean anything, but doesn't guarantee that the whole country will see it.

[HarrogateSnow]

Is anyone sure of what could happen with Harrogate as the met office is showing 8 hours of snow on Thursday midday but I thought that I should check with everyone here. Thank you

[TURNED OUT NICE AGAIN]

I keep telling you boys and girls to watch out for March 2024...its written in the stars

[ANYWEATHER]

I see in the MAD thread their starting to ramp the model output up, but I really don't know what about...

 HarrogateSnow I think they mean 8 minutes

[KTtom]

 ANYWEATHER The odd one for me is the excitement over a potential SSW being modelled for the last week of Febuary...2018 was an exception and not the rule, traditionally the continent has no cold pool left by March.

[raz.org.rain]

 KTtom that's been on my mind too. Record mild across most of Europe as things stand.

[MP-R]

 KTtom Maybe a February 2019 bit in March. Now that would be nice after last year!

[raz.org.rain]

 MP-R sounding more and more likely I think, but it's mostly hopecasting on all sides this evening.

[cobbett]

On 31/1/24 we had this for next week

and today

[MP-R]

 raz.org.rain yes indeed. Probably a bit early. More likely, blocking to the north, blocking to the south, and the Atlantic train through the middle firing straight at… us!

[raz.org.rain]

 cobbett more downgrades? 

[Don]

9 hours ago, MP-R said:

I mean, I'd rather a northerly or easterly, but there's no denying a Feb like 2019 is much better than relentless dull featureless southwesterlies which, in February, are about as seasonal as constant cold northerlies in August...

I understand where you're coming from and the warm spell in February 2019 was very pleasant, but it just felt so wrong for the time of year!

[raz.org.rain]

I think it's fair to say there's some doubt regarding a SSW induced cold spell. There always was a chance that it just wouldn't deliver any cold for us and it looks to be sliding away from any cold output.

[MP-R]

 Don I guess so, but I can deal with ‘wrong’ as you put it if it delivers nice weather. Less so when it delivers rubbish, like last July.

[ANYWEATHER]

Why do people have to blame something or someone these days? The weather is the weather here in the UK ,the most unpredictable part of the world to forecast ,and everyone is so surprised that a long range forecast is inaccurate.  Dear oh dear..!

[Lincs Observation]

 ANYWEATHER your absolutely correct we live in a maritime climate, and it’s right to say our weather is one of the most complicated in the northern hemisphere, however I still would argue that global weather patterns are becoming increasingly volatile which ultimately does effect even our small isle, I don’t think it’s a case of blaming anything, just an observation of how things have changed, the disturbing thing is its pace and downstream effects.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

So this mid feb cold spell has imploded too has it? 

Tbh this place is the reason for this constant let down because we all get roped into background signals etc but it means sweet FA in Britain.

 The whole of Europe looks warm.

People need to be honest with themselves and own up that the weather does what it wants. 

People rely so heavily on background drivers. What a boring horrible winter.

Mild interludes turn unto a mild month and cold spell become a blink and will miss it job.

All abit embarrassing this is tbh 

[Matt Jones]

 Severe Siberian icy blast Given the right conditions and decent fall it wouldn't be gone by lunch, but the main problem for us is getting the snow before lunch or anytime! Ice days are possible in March. 

[MJB]

3 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

March will provide snow. But will be gone by lunch.

March snow can hang around for more than a few hours, that's a misleading comment ...................as you know 

[AO-]

 MJB

March 11th 2013. Snow cover plus one of the latest ice days ever recorded. I suggest under the right circumstances this is possible in England as well.

 

This was the chart a few days earlier

 

Edited February 8 by AO-

[topo]

I don't know why in the UK which is quite north, there are complains about snow in March.

UK has a much greater latitude than New York or Chicago, I don't see a problem with sustained snow cover in March under proper synoptics.

The weather set up is the issue, not March.

Yes, it is not December but still, mid March in Leicester has the same maximum sun angle as early February in Chicago