Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Battleground Snow]

 Drifter

You conveniently left out the  10-20cm above 400 meters part, not everyone lives at sea level.

The evaporative cooling element will likely cause the biggest issue, heavy wet snow for hours, even if it doesn't stick around too long after the initial fall.

Edited February 5 by Battleground Snow

[TEITS]

So GFS wants to take the low to Scandinavia whilst UKMO/ECM send this SE into the Med.

Normally you would dismiss the GFS but sods law it would be right. Still despite these wild differences I believe the latter part of the 06Z is going to deliver. Encouraging sign when different routes end up to the same destination.

[sebastiaan1973]

I think it is time to watch the stratosphere closely. GFS0h delivers a split, combine this with a blocking in NW-Europe and you get downwelling till the end of march, start of april. 

https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/1/373/2020/ 

[daz_4]

 sebastiaan1973 Let's just hope it's wrong. Who wants another cold spring?

[Lukesluckybunch]

Arpege a tad further south at 48h

[Johnp]

 Battleground Snow To be fair, it doesn’t say ‘sea level’ either in the Met Office text. It just says lower levels.

 

[IDO]

Not only is the GFS op awful for the short term, but its FI is poor, with a touch of Spring at D10 and even the upstream wave toned down, meaning no apparent amplification in the Atlantic sector.

D11-12:  

Let us hope EC is correct.

[Zero Visibility]

 

Matching up with the warning area put out by MET.

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240:

The GFS solution at T192, in which the low clears away NE, is not really represented.  Cluster 3 seems the most northerly track of the low.  But the theme across all 5 clusters is blocking to our north. 

T264+:

Both clusters end with a block to the NW, cluster 1 it is over Greenland but declines, cluster 2 it is to our N then retrogresses, with an initial easterly in this timeframe.  

Given the UK is very much on a gambler’s losing streak at the moment, one worry I have is that the high latitude block will prove to be a mirage - no evidence for that at the moment, but a concern might be ridge up to that does seem to pass through the UK on some runs, which would keep the cold at bay.  So more detail as this counts down is needed…

[Battleground Snow]

 Johnp

Don't get me wrong, I'm not expecting much even here at 180m

But someone is going to get hit bad, and even 2cm can be disruptive to drivers that are not used to it.

Arpege nearer ukmo than gfs

Edited February 5 by Battleground Snow

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Arpege nearer ukmo than gfs

Midlands north!the place to be currently

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,GFS still going opposite to ECM /UKMO all on the Atlantic low progression heading into the north of UK from there continuing north bringing a mild air stream over the UK.Always brings some confusion when such a major difference from American models and UK /European models,will make for some very interesting model watching over the next 24/48hrs.

[Neilsouth]

 MattStoke Not exactly like the previous cold spell was accurate for those living in the south, all of them were chopping and changing daily. The low pressure ended up so far south it went into France!

[Daniel*]

I’m sorry but not a chance GFS is correct. Not a single EC ens does what it does. 

[Dennis]

just waiting to better days 

still this week can be surprising 

[Johnp]

 Daniel* Maybe not, but I’m sure I’m not alone in having that same sinking feeling as just before the last cold spell went belly up. 

[Eskimo]

 Daniel* That's based on its own algorithm though so the ECM could still be entirely wrong. The GFS isn't on its own.

Edited February 5 by Eskimo

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

That's based on its own algorithm though so it could still be entirely wrong. The GFS isn't on its own but obviously I hope it's wrong.

The worrying thing is..it's been consistent with its output!and just too expand on that the mean at 156 is even worse!no real flow there...that low needs to be about 500 miles further southeast!

Edited February 5 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[BarnetBlizzard]

The Beast vs the Iberian High, who's going to win?

 

[Nick2373]

 BarnetBlizzard Given the statistics for the UK i know where my money is, 

[NewEra21]

Well if the GFS does end up being correct, it’s beginning to look like the ship has sailed for this winter. Barring something special right at the end of Feb.

GFS really is worst case scenario stuff!

[Drifter]

Even in to deep FI, it’s like someone at NOAA has turned on the ‘do not disrupt lows’ switch on the GFS server. 

[frosty ground]

 Johnp

belly up? Must have imagined that week of lying snow and 4/7 days of sub zero temps

[February1978]

 Nick2373 Cold at Day 16-18!  

[Drifter]

 frosty ground I think he means it was cut way shorter than it initially looked to be.