Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[blizzard81]

 bluearmy I didn't like the way it was going long before that. It's a terrible run BA.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

see that -24 to the right

God if only!!

[damianslaw]

I'd hold fire on saying the models have the synoptics right for Thursday, its an evolving situation. Don't be surprisee to see further 'u' turns back and forth...

[andy989]

 damianslaw This. 
I’m sure pub run will be different again 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Day 10 lovely and mild..strong heights to the South!

[mulzy]

FWIW, the ECM run tonight is a stinker.  I hope it's a crazy outlier.

[MJB]

And up it goes for GH right on mid month cue lol  

[blizzard81]

 mulzy Agreed. Everything put on the back burner again.

[Ice Day]

An unexpected turn of events, but I'm not sure this is nailed down yet. The performance of all the models betrays the complexity of what's coming up over the next few days.  Out of interest, has anyone got a link to the latest NWP verification stats?

[SLEETY]

no ecm is junk from start to finish,miles away from a decent cold-spell

 

having said that dont think later in the week is nailed yet, despite the massive backtrack of ecm and ukmo towards gfs

[nick sussex]

So chase number 73 looks on as we now rely on retrogression !

The ECM teases initially with the Scandi high although any cold has already been blasted away by the earlier effects of the will it won’t it low pressure .

So now coldies have to endure the retrogression drama to see if we can get a Greenland high .

At this point I think there’s more chance of seeing the next coming of Christ !

But we’ll indulge the ECM for a few runs .

 

[Singularity]

No doubt about it, seeing the 12 ECM take a route that none of its 00z ensemble suite or the 00z UKM did at just 4-5 days lead time is astounding. Should the 12z prove nearest the mark, it will have furthered a growing sense I’ve had these past two years that it’s no longer the top model for Europe by any appreciable margin.

Yet even with that large shift it has still cleared the low eastward from the UK by the start of next week, and that remains a critical step that separates it and all other deterministic model runs of late from GFS. 

Reason being, that’s when the next bout of pattern slowing and amplification is expected to arrive, initiating the move toward the HLB regime that’s long been expected to characterise 3rd week Feb.

If we’re under a ridge at that point it’s an easier, quieter route to a cold continental feed than if we’re under a trough GFS-style, let alone one centred so far northwest that it holds the door open for further lows to swing up from the southwest.

[mountain shadow]

We often worry about model differences at plus day 7 and we can't get agreed at 3 days.

What hope do we have getting three weekly forecasts correct?

[phil nw.]

Just putting these here T72hrs

Even at this range there are subtle differences and by day 5 the raw UKMO looks to send the low east rather than north so this really is a messy scenario.We should hope we do get that low east eventually which does help to keep the cold air close by and return it south over the weekend.

It has to said none of the current outcomes are good for deep cold with gfs and ecm mixing the colder uppers out because of the low movement dragging the pattern north.We do have a better chance with the UKMO but even that isn't what we really wanted,it just keeps some cold around. 

The underlying problem on the whole setup of course  is the lack of blocking heights to our north.

[Drifter]

 MJB Come on - the point is, that cold air is heading northwards away from us!

[bluearmy]

 blizzard81 it’s a different transition to the expected pattern post mid month with height rises to the north (somewhere )

 Of course it will disappoint given what some were expecting 

but it’s just one run 

[LRD]

24 minutes ago, Derecho said:

If that high nudges further east we can get a nice early taste of Spring!

We've already had one of those IMBY - the weekend just gone. Felt like mid/late March! And that was after a very mild end to Jan

The GFS ensembles show some ensemble members that do go full spring-mode from the 15th

The control looks very spring-like in FI

Another joke of a winter so far and only a really significant, fairly lengthy wintry spell before 29 Feb will rescue it from anything other than the dross category

Edited February 5 by LRD

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,big climb down from ECM tonight to follow GFS route keeping any snow to the normal Scotland and possibly very far north,leaving UKMO on its own to install the hope that a colder theme could bring snow at least to wales and the north midlands.Must say I felt confident of snow to many parts of the UK this weekend,but after tonight’s chart’s it looks very doubtful.

 

 

 

 

 

[Kasim Awan]

Unlikely to see any significant snow South of the central Midlands- reason is a push of high pressure from the Azores which pushes the cold northwards quickly. Making blizzard preparations here though, expecting a significant event.

[Tim Bland]

Day 10 has potential …Hurry up spring…put us out of our misery

[tvh3382]

 Polar Maritime The models are definitely struggling but people need to read the Met Office updates for 10-19 Feb and 20 Feb-5 Mar because the written forecast does not agree with tonights model output.  I would rather believe the written forecast than the models at the moment.

[joggs]

Awful performance from the Euros.

Kudos GFS.

Roll on spring. What a frustrating winter,for all the good signs.....

Iberian heights are a killer.

 

[bluearmy]

 tvh3382 the 12z  models don’t go to the 20 feb ??

[Polar Maritime]

 tvh3382 Absolutely yes, re- the writen forecast, But remember they also state high uncertainty regarding the next 2/3 days but a week out much better.. Once the Models are past the next 2/3 days regarding how for North or South the Low goes then they should settle down in line with the written..

We shall see!

Edited February 5 by Polar Maritime

[Cheshire Freeze]

All coming together for a cold March, isn’t it.