Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[andymusic]

 sheikhy with the amount of cold air being brought down from the north and the way the low is interacting dragging a little cold air off the continent too could be some surprises yet

[weirpig]

Crikey quite a shunt south on the Arp

[sheikhy]

 bluearmy yes it does!!!!defo upgrades this evening though for anyone in that snow zone!!

[Ali1977]

 Lukesluckybunch hoping the ENS have some members showing snow south of the M4

[Stabilo19]

Perhaps stating the obvious.. but it's worth pointing out these snow depth charts could show 5 cm snow falling widely across e.g. the midlands but none of it even settles. 

Suspect any settling snow will be restricted to high ground in Wales.

[WINTRY WALES]

Another dig 80 miles or so south and south midlands south wales and West Country come in to play. Parts of London too! Is it possible!?!

Edited February 6 by WINTRY WALES

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, Stabilo19 said:

but it's worth pointing out these snow depth charts could show 5 cm snow falling widely across e.g. the midlands but none of it even settles. 

I'd agree with that.  You also have to factor in that due to recent conditions, the ground is much warmer than would be the norm for early Feb, making it more difficult for falling snow to settle.  Keep your expectations low away from high ground, certainly around the midlands.

 

[CoventryWeather]

 Spah1 Not really ranting just stating I want the southwards shift to continue. 

Definitely a trend south, by 20 miles or so. Still a fair few runs until models get the hang on it, so I wouldn't rule out the south midlands for now. Seems the cold air is undercutting faster than what was initially forecasted. 

[Daniel*]

12 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Crikey quite a shunt south on the Arp

Something not right there with snow line near London uppers are positive.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Pretty horrific 12z runs though..longer term!

 

Edited February 6 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[mountain shadow]

 Lukesluckybunch Indeed. Zero sign of favourable heights to the North by mid month with the permanent Iberian high remaining supreme. 

I guess we now have to wait until late February into March for the favourable heights to materialise. 

[February1978]

 Lukesluckybunch  Afraid so - that low leaks away northwestwards again on GFS and opens the door to the Sahara

[Mike Poole]

 Daniel* 1 hour difference there between the two plots might explain?

[andymusic]

 mountain shadow  February1978 meto (UKMO) not seeing that with their update today - meto's longer range update today is still camped in cold northerly/north easterly set up with cold and icy/frosty nights with the possibility of Atlantic incursions into the south west into the cold air with snow well into March so it seems we have the pattern change, lets see how it pans out

[Lukesluckybunch]

The contrast you just have too laugh!gfs been showing this pattern for days now!

[February1978]

 andymusic hopefully they are right, anyone seen the UKMO 12z yet?

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, February1978 said:

hopefully they are right, anyone seen the UKMO 12z yet?

Really bad!

[alexisj9]

 Daniel* ice rain, and no thank you.

[Drifter]

Well disappointing runs so far tonight, especially for the longer term. Hopefully ECM can pull out one from the top shelf. 

[Drifter]

 Lukesluckybunch Exactly. If anything my money would be on an exceptionally mild spell rather than a deep cold spell. Grim. 

[Daniel*]

Little consistency today the earlier GFS runs veered the flow from continent. Faith in NWP reaches rock bottom...

[Ali1977]

I just can’t believe how the Arpege can be 100 miles wrong at T48 - normally it’s a very good model as we get close!! I just can’t see it being right looking at the GFS and UKMO 

[CoventryWeather]

 Ali1977 tbh it was one of the further north models with the GFS. 

None of the models have been consistent today at 48 hours. Stop looking at day 5-10, cause that's rapidly changing due to the low on Thursday. 

[Mcconnor8]

 Ali1977 Have seen it be wrong before, I think it was Storm Ciaran back in November it along with the Arome was taking quite a different track to the UKMO/ECM at just 24-36 hours out but turned out to be wrong and it followed UKMO very closely.

[Ice Day]

GEM is the latest model to show a forming Scandi high at day 9, following something similar on the 6z GFS