Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[Gowon]

Looks like the GFS is going the same route as the 06z 

 

[frosty ground]

 CoventryWeather spring is outside the model range, I wouldn't expect anything spring like just yet

[Lukesluckybunch]

20 minutes ago, Gowon said:

Looks like the GFS is going the same route as the 06z

Yep..probably looking a bit better then the 6z..or maybe not at 192..there appears to be no opening

Edited February 9 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Mike Poole]

Models at T144:

GFS and UKMO have the more negative tilt to the low to the west compared to the GEM.  But all look promising, let’s see how they go.  GFS has more weight to the small low near the UK, UKMO hardly has it at all - which will be better, I think.  GEM somewhere in the middle.

Edited February 9 by Mike Poole

[Johnp]

Another wildly different GFS run.  This is like pulling teeth, meanwhile we are another day nearer to spring.

I know many people don't agree that the micro can impact the macro (if that makes sense) but that pesky low that failed to deliver the goods it initially promised, is now screwing up the overall movement towards blocking to our north that 'should' be happening.

 

 

Edited February 9 by Johnp

[Lukesluckybunch]

Once again no consistency in the models..the 12z couldn't repeat the 6z!

[feb1991blizzard]

 Lukesluckybunch

Or could it?

[joggs]

 feb1991blizzard Iberian heights

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Or could it?

Possible..it could look ok by day 14!

[Ice Day]

Day 7 UKMO - not bad at all

 

[Mike Poole]

UKMO T168:

Much better, more room between the low and the UK.

[Drifter]

 Mike Poole You can see how things could rapidly turn for the better if the cards fall for us. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Much better, more room between the low and the UK.

Trough backing away east into Europe like we want it mike..further South slightly would be a perfect set up!..a slightly better version of 168 would be excellent!

Edited February 9 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[LRD]

 joggs Iberian Heights is a great name for a nightclub!

GFS 12z FI is looking as though it's setting up cold

But Iberian Heights there once again

Edited February 9 by LRD

[Singularity]

2nd day running that the 12z UKM is the most interesting deterministic model run of the day so far.

As well as holding back the Atlantic trough more effectively than GFS (not surprising), it disrupts the one over Scandinavia against the high to its east, which leads to a split in that high, one portion setting up over the Barents-Kara seas. This was last seen in a det. run to some extent in yesterday's 12z ECM.

While not directly influencing our weather, such a high can drive cold air from Siberia toward Scandinavia, building up a cold airmass, which would be an interesting thing to see given the propensity appearing in the models for some manner of ridge development near Iceland around 18th or 19th Feb. Even the GFS 12z has got there despite its earlier aggressiveness with the main Atlantic trough. Imagine if it had followed UKM and Scandinavia was considerably colder as of 21st Feb.

[feb1991blizzard]

 joggs

Trough now replaced it, -12c screaming NE flow inbound with snow showers, that ridge trying to take a chunk out the lower strat vortex, absolute stonker.

[Lukesluckybunch]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Trough now replaced it, -12c screaming NE flow inbound with snow showers, that ridge trying to take a chunk out the lower strat vortex, absolute stonker.

Pretty good stuff feb..is that a griceland high at 318!

[AO-]

 Mike Poole

Good afternoon, 

That chart does look promising. However the shape of the low in the west bothers me. We never will know how the 192h would look like, but I would expect the hp over Scotland to be overrun by the through. There is though a possibility that with help of the background drivers (MJO phase 7) that it will not get overrun. But none of the models are very useful beyond day 4-5 at the moment, so what is the value to be attached to it atm?  

 

Edit: after having seen the WZ version of the 144 and comparing it to the GFS they are pretty similar and I could be wrong. The jet looks to be heading pretty South and the through is not really progressing, but rather shaping up to create WAA.

(I'm having more difficulty interpreting the MC charts)

Edited February 9 by AO-

[Mcconnor8]

 feb1991blizzard Cold uppers never even reached the UK lol

[joggs]

 feb1991blizzard Yes, following the pattern alot of winter, then vanishes.

I personally prefer to keep the model outlook to 5 days or so.

I know there's nothing wrong with drooling over day10 + for some.

 

Edited February 9 by joggs

[joggs]

 LRD some potential there yes,but it's a fair way out...

[winterof79]

 LRD They  always will be there if jet is north.Nowt new.

Still sticking with a very brief Scandi rise transfering to Our NW as i posted before

[LRD]

 joggs and it ended up resulting in next to nothing! A few frosts under a cold high. Absolutely thrilling stuff

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, LRD said:

and it ended up resulting in next to nothing! A few frosts under a cold high. Absolutely thrilling stuff

Same old story LRD..the cold is restricted to the same old areas over Europe..one day it will cross the north sea!

[LRD]

5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

They  always will be there if jet is north.Nowt new.

Well, quite. I realise that. IH = northerly jet = IH = no cold