Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[damianslaw]

Interesting to note GFS holding firm with pushing the trough east through next week and mid atlantic heights building to the west. A deep trough is shown with a NW- SE aligned jet, certainly a plausible evolution. Thereafter low pressure from the NW phases into the scandi trough. A cold unsettled end to winter would be the end product with snow likely to modest low levels in the north.

Remember northerlies and easterlies become statistically more likely as we enter Spring, peaking in April and May.. 

[Nick2373]

Anyway onto the 06z the trend still from the 22nd onward to something colder moisture spikes pretty much still around but should imaging we'll see theses drop away next few days to more of a showery regime.  With the SSW in play and with the UK already in colder conditions it may work to our favour something to watch. 

Edited February 13 by Paul

[Dennis]

CFS from 18th 

[feb1991blizzard]

Cold and troughy Uk.

[mountain shadow]

 feb1991blizzard Great to see, but I guess like most, lets get in inside 5 days before getting excited.

[andymusic]

 mountain shadow been on the last three or four runs of the gfs - something is building

[MP-R]

Nice to see these synoptics but can't help but feel like yet another garden path is being laid, or something like this will happen:

   

[Matt Jones]

Not convinced by those charts showing late in the GFS run, to me they are consistent in one thing, flushing out the 850's, looks mostly cold and wet unfortunately, this time of year would much rather be seeing a block of cold 850's approaching from the NE.

[Purga]

Could get a tad breezy on the south coast

[Jordan S]

I may aswell show these charts today as the weekend is a few days away.

Strong signal showing visually now for rather cold and unsettled conditions from northwesterlies towards end of February. 

Very low heights to note on this afternoon’s Gfs, partly explains the lower level snowfall indicated by it for the same time over a few various areas. Though snowfall to that extent and especially further south unlikely of course at that time.

As you can see from these charts below, snow risk increases after midweek in the north then further south by next weekend, though the risk itself in the south is low as expected, these are primarily indicative of mostly high ground wintry precipitation Wednesday to Friday, though the risk of heavy wintry precipitation (primarily in form of showers afterwards) increasing slightly for some southern and central parts of England too by next weekend.

increasing risk of those northwesterly gales mentioned in my previous post. Especially southwest and western areas Wednesday-Thursday next week, reading between the meteorological lines so to speak this indicates clearly a low such as Gfs 12oclock update makes an increasing likelihood of appearing into the southwest with potential snowfall along north/northeast boundary lows east/northeast, location of that is uncertain though for now and mainly high ground, though I wouldn’t rule out low level snow on the boundary with high intensity to the precipitation, the gales I mentioned above being especially more likely along western and southwestern coasts, though perhaps further northeast slightly too come the time, depending on exact intensity of the trough over and to our east by this time.
 

Certainly an interesting evolution ahead for last week to 10days of February.

[Methuselah]

This week's Deep Dive hints at a possible cold spell following the expected SSW. How cold? Well, that's still up in the air, so to speak: 

 

[northwestsnow]

It would be great if the hard core ( I'm looking at @Ali1977 @feb1991blizzard ) could be rewarded for their persistance.

Ive thrown the towel in myself, not because snow isnt possible into march ,because i lose interest mid feb onwards for various reasons..

 

[stratty]

 Methuselah Are these a live feed?

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,GFS holding it’s forecast at around 216 hrs with a notable storm followed by an Arctic air flow with a strong chance of snow over most of the UK.I am sure that we are all following this continual show of cold Arctic air that GFS keeps turning out will it come to fruition,certainly SSW likely very much involved so uncertainty still there at the time lapse of 9 or 10 days minimum.

[Methuselah]

 stratty Yes, I think they are, but I never get there quick enough! 

[blizzard81]

Nothing has changed since my last post on Sunday. Still on course for Feb to have the last laugh this winter. Gfs has been rock solid in this regards. It's now coming into range of the ecm 10 day op. 

[damianslaw]

 feb1991blizzard GFS maintains the theme of recent runs as mentioned in previous post i.e. trough heading east, cold polar maritime flow thereafter with temps closer to average as we enter latter end to the month. Such changes still out of the reliable, will wait to see if ECM follows suit.

Immediate outlook very mild but rather grey and dull and not very inspiring. 

[Stuie]

GEFS for the South coast (Dorset) looks pretty mundane on this runs diagrams. Nothing to raise the eyebrows.

[RJBingham]

A tad less chilly. cold rain anyone?

 

[raz.org.rain]

 RJBingham it'll more than likely end up with significant downgrades and we'll get maybe a week of cold rain and sleet.

[feb1991blizzard]

 damianslaw

Tentative signs of something a bit better than polar maritime entering March, can't see any proper sustained HLB until further into March but maybe a bit better than PM, Arctic maritime / topplers / polar lows / runners etc possible

[damianslaw]

 MP-R The way cold prospects have been snatched away this winter wouldn't be surprised. You can make out two eyes and a scary mouth over Iberia.

ECM is pulling in a strong westerly 7 days time kicking the high to the SW into touch. Perhaps this is as far as we should go now.. i.e. the very mild south westerly becoming a less mild but still mild westerly. 

Edited February 13 by damianslaw

[Mcconnor8]

 Met4Cast Thats the GEM not GEFS ensemble, GEFS doesn't look too different from earlier runs to me.

[minus10]

 northwestsnow i thought you were hardcore!...

gefs 12z still showing colder from soon after 22nd...

...however bit less cold from the ens although conversly colder op still...

..trough reaching down into spain with this run..

...anoms also showing height lines with increased westerly component ..

...850 anoms little less cold..

...so is this the start of the watering down of the colder signal (again) that the gefs has been modelling for days?...is it a wobble?...will the ops continue to be colder than the mean?...and of course the ssw ???

...zonal winds should be in the process of weakening now however latest predicted reversal looks brief ...still all to play for i suppose...one last time...

 

[Theresnoway]

 Stuie Indeed, on the short ensembles shown, all looks pretty mild. I believe the excitement for cold weather fans comes after this period, which may or may not materialise. Lots of changes to come, but better than the weather being shown in recent days.

Edited February 13 by Theresnoway