Model banter and emotions

[raz.org.rain]

 WYorksWeather there's seemingly still a strong appetite for a SSW induced cold spell in the model thread, but I'm not convinced we'll see anything notably cold if we end up with the colder output, my thoughts is it's more likely we'll end up with the warmer effects of a SSW. Significant cold is in very short supply across the northern hemisphere, even in Scandinavia. I'm not seeing where this supposed "sting in its tail" for the end of February could come from, other than delivering another cold rain spell.

[Retron]

 raz.org.rain 

The charts this time back in 2018 were bullish on a cold spell, and we were already in one of course.

They were a world away from what we're seeing at the moment.

[baddie]

Looking like a cold start to March according to the Met Office. Hoping the winds are away from the North Sea so we dont have to see a 4th consecutive bleak start to March. February is probably going to be duller than average unless we see a sunny final third

Fingers crossed for a March version of April 2021

[ANYWEATHER]

9 minutes ago, baddie said:

Looking like a cold start to March according to the Met Office.

If that is about as accurate as there summer and winter forcasts ,then we can write that prediction off as well.....

[raz.org.rain]

 baddie considering how their February forecast went...

[raz.org.rain]

Iberian highs galore in Western Europe. Eastern Europe is a much different story. If we do get an SSW, I'd imagine it would follow the same footprint.

 

[Frigid]

 baddie Would love a March version of April 2021. A largely anticyclonic, cold spring would be great after this sad excuse of a winter. It's an almost certainty that it'll get warm sometime this year so plenty of time for some cold 

[Nath]

This has truly been a dire winter for anything remotely wintery.  Worst one I can remember TBH.

[baddie]

February might as well just stay mild and wet, and maybe we would have a good chance of a lovely sunny March

Edited February 14 by baddie

[ICE COLD]

Evening, been keeping Quiet for the last few weeks waiting , waiting and waiting to start posting the cold blocked charts . Well sorry there’s none to post . A horrible winter , not only because it didn’t produce the goods but it promised so much . Even the strat forecasts have been truly shocking ( usually they’re more reliable ) . As you’ve probably guessed that’s my big white towel well a truly thrown in ( earliest I’ve ever given in ) Have a nice summer / Autumn everyone and see you next winter maybe . Is there any point chasing winter anymore ??????? 
 

Cheers Everyone .

[Mark wheeler]

 Daniel* haven't commented for ages, feel despondent, down about the weather etc. It seems the Fat lady is about to open up her tonsils. For me as a lover of extremes , either Snow or heat. Lets goooo.

Ps , I know 18c and mehhhhhh

Edited February 15 by Mark wheeler

[sheikhy]

 ICE COLD mate i threw it in on the 17th or 18th of january lol!!didnt even waste my time trying after that!one of the worst winters for my location ever and just to add thats with background patterns apparently looking more favourable this winter!yeh right!ive had more snow and cold in the past in what was supposedly meant to be the milder winters !not gona say much more as i said my bit a month ago lol!!on to next winter.....!!

[cyclonic happiness]

 Penrith Snow No, you're right.

Climate change has only brought one thing to this area, a lack of weather.

This winter is the worst I've known in my 46 years on earth, literally nothing has happened of interest.

Can someone just euthanise this awful season please??

[rug]

Definitely the worst winter I can remember. Grey nothingnesss. 
 

 

[KTtom]

 northwestsnow Having seen some of Norway from the sky, I would think Dennis has done very well this winter..ideal pattern,Atlantic  low after low crashing into Norway whilst entrenched in the Scandinavian cold..like Finland I would say Norway has had copious amounts of snow this winter.

Back to our miserable back yard...just give us some sunshine! Please! 

Edited February 15 by KTtom

[northwestsnow]

 KTtom for some reason I thought Dennis was in the Nertherlands

[MJB]

It's been a shocker, a handful of frosts.

Not a snowflake in sight 

Worst I can remember for years 

[AO-]

 northwestsnow

Good Morning,

lol, Scandinavia somehow hit the jackpot this winter (sort if). The Netherlands is a whole different story

Edit: to illustrate with the sea ice extent of the Baltic sea compared to previous years.

Edited February 15 by AO-

[jellybaby1969]

 syed2878 it has been a bust for the majority of the populated areas in Scotland. We don't all eat haggis and live up a mountain 

[TillyS]

10 hours ago, ICE COLD said:

Evening, been keeping Quiet for the last few weeks waiting , waiting and waiting to start posting the cold blocked charts . Well sorry there’s none to post . A horrible winter , not only because it didn’t produce the goods but it promised so much . Even the strat forecasts have been truly shocking ( usually they’re more reliable ) . As you’ve probably guessed that’s my big white towel well a truly thrown in ( earliest I’ve ever given in ) Have a nice summer / Autumn everyone and see you next winter maybe . Is there any point chasing winter anymore ??????? 

 

Over the past 24 hours there’s been a general air of resignation on here from seasoned posters. It’s not hard to see why with only 2 weeks left of winter and a batch of dire overnight outputs.

I took matters into my own hands and chased snow up the Cairngorms this week, and it was absolutely stunning yesterday (see the Scotland Alba thread), but that doesn’t mask what a dire ‘winter' it has been even for the Scottish ski industry. I may go to Norway at the end of this month to see the real deal whilst it still exists. Your final question is a good one and no joke. Just look at the chronic situation in the Alps at times. 10C in Chamonix at 10 am in mid-February. 

 

 

Edited February 15 by Paul

[Summer8906]

The models just seem to get worse and worse. We lose the exceptional mildness accompanied by permadrizzle next week but we go to... stormy and exceptionally wet. It might go coldish for a while following that but FI then sets up a Greenland high with lows crossing the southern UK. March 2023 all over again, oh joy. This endless spell of dire conditions just never seems to end.

I think the 9 month period starting July 2023 is going to smash all records for rainfall for summer/autumn/winter combined and is probably going to be one of the dullest such periods on record too (near permanently dull except early September and mid-January).

Must be worth placing bets for February 2024 being both the mildest and the dullest February on record. Not sure about the wettest, as it's less cyclonic than say 2020, but perhaps top 5 wettest on record?

 

Edited February 15 by Summer8906

[baddie]

 Summer8906 I find Easterlies at the start of March always leads to cyclonic conditions later on (March 2006, 2018 and 2023), and I believe most Easterly Marches come after cold Januarys/Februarys. If we see Easterlies, they should at least not be coming off the North Sea

Edited February 15 by baddie

[Summer8906]

 baddie very true. Mind you the model wasn't really showing easterlies, except for Scotland. The FI frames were more like the post-breakdown phase of March 2023.

Hopefully it'll change. Cold and dry is what I'm looking for, I doubt we'll get that, but even an average March temperature, rainfall and sunshine wise would be a vast improvement on what we have now, so that would do!

Edited February 15 by Summer8906

[baddie]

 Summer8906 I would take either Northerly the whole month or Northerly until the equinox then Warm and Sunny Easterlies/Southerlies after (Not quite March 2012 but something like 2020 or 2022)

We are due a thoroughly settled month and for March to be like last March or December 2023, then thats just torture. March 2010 first half and March 2020 second half would be perfect

Edited February 15 by baddie

[Sherry]

18.1 degrees today! Let’s keep it going! Love the warm weather!