Winter 2007/08 rumblings from Bill Giles and the ECPC (NOAA)

[johnholmes]

many thanks for that account Charlton and for the final paragraph.

Many on here fail to understand just what huge probelms any winter with the severity of 1946-47 or 1962-63 would cause. Welcome to net Wx as well.

This is the data I said I would post below

Very cold winter months from 1901 onwards.

My own definition of this and it’s a month with a CET, link for this data is below, at 2.0C or more colder than the CET average for 1971-2000 quoted in the data CET below.

Obviously some will not agree with the data set, some will want a different time period.

But what this method does very clearly is show those months that were ‘very cold’ by the definition given above.

Winter is taken to be December, January and February.

The CET web data on this site

http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley...av_temperat.htm

As an Excel document the full list is shown below

Very_cold_winter_stats_for_item_Very_cold_winter_months_25_Aug_07.xls

Summing that up (especially if you are unable to open an Excel sheet) December has more very cold occasions than either January or February, 18 compared to 13 and 15 respectively.

The last very cold winter month was December 1996. The last one in January was 1987 and for February it is 1986.

The coldest ever month in this list from 1900 onwards is -2.1C in January 1963, and thus the coldest January in the period.

The coldest February was 1947(-1.9C) with the coldest December in 1981 at 0.3C

Using this data I then looked up the station nearest to me with a fairly long record through much of this; RAF Finningley 1942-1995, to see how the winters highlighted showed up in that station statistics. For comparison I then looked at the data for the same months for Sheffield(Weston Park at 131m above sea level).

The first whole winter to show up was 1946-1947 followed by the 1962-63 winter. These being the only two complete winters occurring within its data set.

For the full listing of mean, max and min temperatures (averages and extremes) see the Excel sheet below.

Finningley_data_for_very_cold_winter_months___25_aug07.xls

The summary is given here

Mean temp for 1946-47 was 0.9C with the lowest min being -14.5C (24/02); 32 days with snow falling and 41 lying. Air frosts were not taken that winter but a total of 66 ground frosts

The summary for Sheffield (Weston Park at about 400ft above sea level)

The mean temp was 0.9C and a total of 50 air frosts.

The full data extracted is shown in the link below in Excel format

weston_park_data.xls

Mean temp for 1962-63 was -0.0C with a lowest minimum of -13.3C (23/01); 41 days of snow falling and 51 of it lying, air frosts=72 with 80 ground frosts.

In 1962-63 the data for Sheffield showed a mean temp of 0.2C with 71 air frosts.

So, perhaps rather unexpectedly the temperatures at Finningley were almost the same as Sheffield in both winters. Sad that there is no snow data only the rainfall totals for each station.

Finningley in 1946-7 showed 162.8mm with Sheffield reporting a total of 234.8mm

In 1962-63 Finningley had 67.0mm and Sheffield 129.2mm. As one would expect the Sheffield site showed much higher rainfall in both winters. Both sets of data do show how much wetter 1946-7 was compared to the winter of 1962-63.

I have not got round to looking at the figures for other ‘very cold’ winter months.

enjoy the data.

[Weather-history]

I wrote lengthy articles on the winters of 1946-47, 1962-63 amd 1978-79, a few months back

1946-47

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=33821

1962-63

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=35386

1978-79

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=33884

Got some Times clippings on the start of winter 1962-63, I'll post them sometime.

Edited August 27, 2007 by Mr_Data

[johnholmes]

very interesting they were/are and look forward to the Times clippings

[Anti-Mild]

I'm sure any self-respecting winter lover already has it but I can recommend 'Frozen in Time' by Paul Hudson and Ian McCaskill which details the above winters with loads of lovely pictures.

Of course it only highlights exactly what we are missing out on !

[acbrixton]

John many thanks for taking the time to compile the data...

Regards

ACB

[johnholmes]

I'm sure any self-respecting winter lover already has it but I can recommend 'Frozen in Time' by Paul Hudson and Ian McCaskill which details the above winters with loads of lovely pictures.

Of course it only highlights exactly what we are missing out on !

yes not a bad book with some good examples of what severe winter is like.

[androcles]

Hey Charlton.

That was a wonderful description of life in that bad winter. Although not here in that time, I was at school in North Yorkshire in the mid-late 60's and I remember most winters being much colder and snowier. Like you I remember the ice on the inside of windows and huge icicles dangling off the eaves. Snow on the bed in the morning......

Who in their right mind would want that now?

John, Great info. Keep the stats coming

Anti-mild. I have read 'Frozen in Time' and it is hugely informative - highly recommended.

If any of you can speak German, there is info on the winter of 78/79 here

http://www.saevert.de/ebsen7879.htm

Andy

[laserguy]

Excellent run of posts and info,especially IMO Charlton's reminisenses of a severe winter. Not much I can add to it but notice how kids still got to school in those sort of conditions and life generally wasn't as badly disrupted? I wasn't around in '63 but can recall many severe episodes of winter weather in childhood. Largely,we just got on with it until we really had no option but to concede defeat. Contrast that to these days where 2-3 CENTIMETRES warrants a severe weather warning! "Ah,they don't know they're born these days"!

[Optimus Prime]

I would had thought 2-3cm would have warranted a warning in the 70s/80s ect...It doesn't take much snow to cause problems to transport 5 years ago or 30.

The cold spell in February last year brought 8cm of snow here, deepest snowcover since February 1991 but I recall little transport disruption even though it was during rush hour.

[Charltonkerry]

Lasrguy, what you must remember it was warmer in school then at home, (going to school also had the benefit that you could let the front fire out for a few hours, as only mum was at normally home in the kitchen), thats why we where sent to school, plus food was readily available at lunch times, however bad it was, the food was always hot, I still have nightmares about the gypsy tart. Just a note for you youngster who might be reading this, boys in junior school still wore short trousers, and yes I and no doubt alot of the other oldies can rember the chapping of our thighs.

You have to realise that items such as potato's, cauli's etc where frozen in the ground, there was no way they could be dug out I believe that most of our veg came from Thanet this is where the sea froze, hardly any food was imported. I can't remember going hungry but I still remember the shortages. I expect we managed as after all rationing was still in place 10 years prior and people of my parents age where used to making do. Yes potato's where available but at a cost which the vast majority could not afford.

It was tradition in our family to stew up the Christmas day turkey carcus (given to us by our nan who could afford a turkey {yes she did live up the other hill in Dartford}), the winter of 62/63 turkey stew actually set a family record as we where still eating it in March, mind you we didn't find much turkey or turkey bones by then, my mother convinced me that oxtail was the greatest thing you could stew up, she even put in my pet rabbit, mined you i did not find out about until alot later she said it had escaped? even the fat / scum ontop of the stew went nicely on toast.

I would not like you to think that we where a particularlly poor family as compared to some we where fairly well off or even that what I have been describing in these posting where exceptional they where the norm or the Dartford area (NW Kent for those who don't know it), but unlike today if you did not work you did not get paid, thats why schools etc where open, dispite all the hardship of getting to work my father made it ever day, probably because he had to. The majority of people also lived within walking / biking distance of there works, infact nobody within our family, circle of friends or road even had a car then. I should really make a glib comment about you youngsters never had it so good, but back in those days we had the hardships, but we had our freedom, we could go out to play knowing that if we overstepped the mark then all that happen to us is that we would get a clip around the head, nowdays you get knived or shot.

Regards

Kerry

[Wales123098]

i dont know how this Country will put up with a bad winter in Feb they closed Cardiff Airport, The M4 between Cardiff and Swansea, The A470(Connects Cardiff, Swansea, Newport to the rest of Wales Main North to South Road), Train Services where cancled, after just 5 to 20cm of Snow in the South Wales area and over 100 schools in Cardiff alone where closed!(gd for me) and we had to go all the way round the Brecon Beacons becasue we where stuck in Brecon and couldnt use the A470 we had to go trew the midlands toke hours!

Edited August 27, 2007 by Wales123098

[osmposm]

enjoy the data.

One interesting thing I noticed from them, John.

Consecutive very cold December/January combinations only occurred in the three famous winters where the whole winter was very cold (though Dec 76/Jan 77 & Dec 81/ Jan 82 came close to bucking it). Consecutive very cold January/February combinations, on the other hand, also occurrred in four other years - 1929, 1942, 1979 & 1985.

29 and 79 did, it's true, follow pretty cold Decembers; but 42 and 85 followed ones that were actually a bit above average.

It would seem that if a really bitter pattern is firmly set in the first part of winter, then so it remains to the end. Conversely, an average December does not always preclude a long and bitter New Year to follow.

Or that's how things used to be!

Edited August 27, 2007 by osmposm

[johnholmes]

I had not really looked at that from your first para.

December has more 'very cold' occasions than any other month and also the most recent.

I wonder why?

Its an honest query as I have no idea.

Edited August 27, 2007 by johnholmes

[Weather-history]

The interesting thing about winter 1981-82 is that the second half (ie Jan 16 -Feb 28) was milder than the second half of winter 1974-75, however the first half was the coldest since 1890-91.

[johnholmes]

yes, weather data and inferences from any of them especially parts of them can be made to show whatever anyone wants. This is why its best to use whole months and whole winters, in my view.

Obviously in most months there will be quite large variations in temps, ppn etc, although the really cold months show only smaller variations.

[ribster]

Nice memories from Kerry there, most snow I ever remember seeing was in Jan 87 - village was cut off for two weeks. Also seem to remember rather deep snow on valentines day 79?

But as for wishing for snow/severe cold and it's consequences, it doesn't really matter does it - just a preference or not. Whether we wish for it or not has absolutely no bearing on what will actually happen.

Bit like when I was in the forces, on one hand you wanted the opportunity to put your training into practice - i.e. a war, on the other you of course didn't want a war because people die. But again, wishing one way or the other had no bearing on the matter.

[Stratos Ferric]

...

It would seem that if a really bitter pattern is firmly set in the first part of winter, then so it remains to the end. Conversely, an average December does not always preclude a long and bitter New Year to follow.

Or that's how things used to be!

Aaah. the allure of the apparent: however, there's a lot of false positives as well: it's NOT a given that a cold December leads to a cold winter (as Philip Eden points out fairly frequently, just when you think you've found a pattern in the weather, closer examination, or the passage of time, blows the hypothesis apart).

There are several instances of cold Decembers NOT presaging cold winters: 1928, 1934, 1956, 1962, 1977, 1982 and 1996 all had Decembers at >2C below the period norm, yet the winters were not particularly cold (March 1962 though WAS colder than either Jan or Feb before it). There are five instances of a cold winter following; including the Daddy of them all, 1917, when every month from December - April was at least 2C below par.

When it's all added up therefore a cold December is no more likely to preced a cold winter than it is a mild one. What IS more true is that a mild December seldom precedes a cold winter, or even a winter with a cold month. 1955 is the one clear example, 1954 nudges the mark: 1919 and 1986 both managed one cold month.

The bottom line for cold lovers: there is more cause for concern if December is mild than there is for optimism if it is cold.

[osmposm]

Aaah. the allure of the apparent: however, there's a lot of false positives as well: it's NOT a given that a cold December leads to a cold winter

Stratos, I never thought I'd have to say it to you, but - if you read my post properly you'll see that I was not looking at December's temperature alone, I was specifically referring to winters where December AND January were both "very cold" by John's definition - i.e the CET was >2C below the 1971-2000 average. Hence my carefully chosen phrase, "if a really bitter pattern is firmly set..." There have only been three such winters in the years that John has been looking at (since 1900), and all of them were indeed followed by a "very cold" February as well. The only ones close to breaking that pattern were 76-7 & 81-2, both with a "very cold" December, a nearly "very cold" January, but an above av Feb.

To your list of mild (or at least above average) Decembers that were followed by cold later winters must surely be added the two "very cold" Jan/Feb combinations I mentioned, 1942 & 1985?

One other point - I was terribly confused by your saying "there are several instances of cold Decembers not presaging cold winters: 1928, 1934, 1956, 1962....all had Decembers at >2C below the period norm." I eventually figured out that you meant the Decembers preceding the winters that you abbreviate to that year i.e. December of 1962 = December of 1961-2 = December 1961!! . Somewhat clearer, I'd have thought, to refer to December 1961 (and 1927, 1933, 1955 etc) if you mean December 1961? I always try and refer to winters by both of the two years covered for precisely this reason, and it hardly takes any more time and space.

Edited August 28, 2007 by osmposm

[johnholmes]

okay SF did you mean December 1962 was not 'cold' NOR followed by cold January or February 1963??

[kold weather]

I think SF means December 1961 which had a CEt of 2.2C and led to pretty normal Jan/Feb.

Of course December can be every bit as good as other winter months and given last year probably better then the whole of that winter combined!

[andy_leics22]

Having just read this thread I am pleased to see well respected forecasters and charts pointing to a colder than average winter But I must say that I am not going to start thinking this is likely to happen until it actually does happen.

How many times have we been let down by almost promises of a cold snap coming up and it never materialised? I remember that easterly that the charts teased us with at the start of 2006, that was within a reliable time range and it looked amazing until it went belly up with about 4-5 days to go!

For now I think I will just look to the short term weather and a bit more sunshine before october. The charts are looking good at the moment with high pressure not moving far even out to 14 days time. October onwards though, that is when I will really start looking towards winter which is my favourite time of the year

[snowsure]

I have enjoyed all 17 pages of this forum despite the occasional lack of maturity. However, the one thing about the exceptional winters (47, 63, et al) is that they were exceptional and not the norm. I was born in 1972, thus my formative memories about winter are of the snowy episodes that seemed to happen every 3 or 4 years from 1979 onwards.

To someone born in 1952, I assume that the weather patterns from 1959 to 1967 were formative for them. It was always thus. In the same way that you can age someone based on their favourite "Blue Peter" presenter, so can you age someone based on their idea of normal winter or summer weather. It will be interesting to see if my daughter (born 1996) has a different perception of winter weather to some older person who remembers the "real" winters of yester-year.

Same planet but different perceptions of the same year based on prior experience. As such, this winter could be a real winter for one group but nothing but a few flakes for another group! I do not think that it is proper for posters on here to challenge others idea of an excellent winter prospect.

[johnholmes]

I think SF means December 1961 which had a CEt of 2.2C and led to pretty normal Jan/Feb.

Of course December can be every bit as good as other winter months and given last year probably better then the whole of that winter combined!

I reckon you are probably correct in that he means 1961.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Having just read this thread I am pleased to see well respected forecasters and charts pointing to a colder than average winter B) But I must say that I am not going to start thinking this is likely to happen until it actually does happen.

How many times have we been let down by almost promises of a cold snap coming up and it never materialised? I remember that easterly that the charts teased us with at the start of 2006, that was within a reliable time range and it looked amazing until it went belly up with about 4-5 days to go!

For now I think I will just look to the short term weather and a bit more sunshine before october. The charts are looking good at the moment with high pressure not moving far even out to 14 days time. October onwards though, that is when I will really start looking towards winter which is my favourite time of the year B)

The charts are not that great at the moment with weather fronts going over the top of the high pressure, we had 3 hours worth of rain last night i got soaked. and this genuine situation looks to continue untill at least next week. Believe me id rather have the hot sunshine now rather than in october and november ruining our setup for winter. But Just isnt the case. you live in leicester did you not get wet last night ? although I was in the hinckley,narborough area at the time.

[Stratos Ferric]

I reckon you are probably correct in that he means 1961.

Indeed I did, thank you Kold.

... I do not think that it is proper for posters on here to challenge others idea of an excellent winter prospect.

Why ever not, so long as they provide a reason? Heaven forbid the alternative, which we too often sail close to on here, which is endless and often mindless fawning regarding forecasts and projections based on very little other than hopefulness.