Winter 2007/08 rumblings from Bill Giles and the ECPC (NOAA)

[The PIT]

Why have I got the feeling that after all the blocking of summer that the Atlantic will fire up big time and it'll roaring zonal 90% of the time???

[Glacier Point]

It's going to take a dramatic turnaround in global angular momentum to get us anywhere near a strong zonal flow over the northern hemisphere (where the negative zonal anomalies have been greatest):

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/aam/glaam.gif

As we stand, lots of blocking over northern Canada and Alaska, Greenland and now the north Atlantic joining in the fun.....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The long term (Autumn) outlook must be of a sustained quiet phase of weather, particulalry with the QBO likely to hit a record negative value late October into November, a weak La Nina and the current SSTA with cold anomalies to our south and and warm to the north. That's not to state we wont get zonal phases, just not full speed jetstream that many instantly assume - very sporadic and displaced southwards would be my idea of any jet flow, especially with the NAO likely to be neutral - negative.

Edited August 24, 2007 by Glacier Point

[SteveB]

It's going to take a dramatic turnaround in global angular momentum to get us anywhere near a strong zonal flow over the northern hemisphere (where the negative zonal anomalies have been greatest):

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/aam/glaam.gif

As we stand, lots of blocking over northern Canada and Alaska, Greenland and now the north Atlantic joining in the fun.....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The long term (Autumn) outlook must be of a sustained quiet phase of weather, particulalry with the QBO likely to hit a record negative value late October into November, a weak La Nina and the current SSTA with cold anomalies to our south and and warm to the north. That's not to state we wont get zonal phases, just not full speed jetstream that many instantly assume - very sporadic and displaced southwards would be my idea of any jet flow, especially with the NAO likely to be neutral - negative.

Would this mean we could be looking a fairly quiet Autumn, with my favourite type of Autumn weather, fog and frost?.

[Glacier Point]

I think so Steve, although the likelihood of a -NAO/AO is likley to mean a greater probability of northerlies and dsiplaced jetstream with cooler, unsettled conditions at times.

[SteveB]

Thats good, just so long as we stay on the cooler side of things.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think so Steve, although the likelihood of a -NAO/AO is likley to mean a greater probability of northerlies and dsiplaced jetstream with cooler, unsettled conditions at times.

Thats the one.

BFTP

[jethro]

Thats the one.

BFTP

Blast, if you get time check out the Archibald paper I posted a link to over on the "overhype" thread in the enviro section, I'd be interested in your thoughts.

Off topic, sorry.

[kold weather]

Interesting post GP, for what its worth I think that GLAAM would bode well if we can get a -ve AO phase, indeed some of our coldest winters have come under such a set-up, if we get a +ve AO then any blocking will get sustained quite easily to our south like 88-89.

Its interesting to see at the moment just how powerful the subtropical high pressure belt has been over the last month, those who have watched hurricane Dean saw it track form W.Africa through to Mexico and only gain 7 degrees of latitude throughout that journey, which is utterly amazing and extremly rare indeed and shows how powerful the azores high is right now.

The key is certainly the state of the AO this winter, a weak La Nina would help and theQBO also helps and to get a better pattern then 05-06 is going to need a more -Ve NAO but neutral would be enough if the other pieces are there. A decently -ve NAO was all that was preventing 05-06 being as cold as 95-96 IMO and it showed in March 06 when we finally had a sustained -ve NAO set-up.

Edited August 24, 2007 by kold weather

[Glacier Point]

Its interesting to see at the moment just how powerful the subtropical high pressure belt has been over the last month, those who have watched hurricane Dean saw it track form W.Africa through to Mexico and only gain 7 degrees of latitude throughout that journey, which is utterly amazing and extremly rare indeed and shows how powerful the azores high is right now.

.... a classic signature of the the QBO and its forcing of a flat but strong hp cell in the Atlantic. Strong QBO is equating very much to strong easterly trades and hp cell. This will continue into the Autumn, although the cell will tend to contract and become a lot more spherical in shape which will assist recurvature of those tropical depressions. With blocking to the north a distinct possibility, some of these storms could take a low track to our south and help lower mean pressure in the Atlantic reinforcing a -NAO. Either way, a lot of dry weather in store.

[Wales123098]

so are we having a bad winter with lots of snow or not i am confused :huh: thanks

i hope we have a winter like they did in the 80s i ve never seen one i ve only heard stories about them when you would have to dig tunnels around Cardiff to get to the shops and further north where my mums from in the brecon beacons u would have to climp trew windows to get outside upstairs i hope we have a very wintery winter

this is the most i ve seen, THE temp was sub zero. i am going to america in feburary and its around -20c with 4 ft of snow in the resort!

[snowmadchrisuk]

so are we having a bad winter with lots of snow or not i am confused :huh: thanks

i hope we have a winter like they did in the 80s i ve never seen one i ve only heard stories about them when you would have to dig tunnels around Cardiff to get to the shops and further north where my mums from in the brecon beacons u would have to climp trew windows to get outside upstairs i hope we have a very wintery winter

this is the most i ve seen, THE temp was sub zero. i am going to america in feburary and its around -20c with 4 ft of snow in the resort!

I wouldn't say we could answer your question seing as its only august and autum hasnt even started yet. The signs are there for it to be colder than last year but so many if's and buts . My worry at the moment is high pressure is going to land right on top of us. this would make it cold fosty and foggy but drier than avarage with not much snow. That is not a forecast just a little worry at the moment.

[jethro]

Wales: this is the most i ve seen,

I feel really sorry for anyone who hasn't experienced the magical moment of opening curtains in the morning to find a good, thick covering of pristine snow. It was something we took for granted back in my youth, every winter, at least once it would happen. My son got all excited the year before last when we got about an inch and a half, didn't have the heart to tell him it was barely enough to call a covering. I sincerely hope every kid gets that magical treat, the chance to make snow angels, at least once in their childhood, maybe this year eh? Fingers crossed

Edited August 24, 2007 by jethro

[laserguy]

Yes let's all get together and pray for a proper winter,we've nothing to lose! Remember going to bed as a kid with the words of the TV forecaster ringing in my ears 'heavy snow tonight' and being unable to get to sleep due to looking out of the window to see if it had started. Usually hadn't by the time sleep overcame me but whooshing open the curtains in the morning to reveal total whiteout with the blizzard still raging as I walked to school...fantastic! The passing of the years and the degeneration of our winters into the current nonense is tragic.

Winters so cold in the early 80's when all the pipes in the house froze up and my dad sent me up into the loft with a kettle of warm water to defrost them. Silly now I know,but not then! Venturing into the loft and seeing a snowdrift in there where the gale had blown it in through a gap in the roof somewhere(which I never did locate).

Be patient little ones,maybe not this year or the next,but soon...?

[Turnedoutniceagain]

so are we having a bad winter with lots of snow or not i am confused :huh: thanks

i hope we have a winter like they did in the 80s i ve never seen one i ve only heard stories about them when you would have to dig tunnels around Cardiff to get to the shops and further north where my mums from in the brecon beacons u would have to climp trew windows to get outside upstairs i hope we have a very wintery winter

this is the most i ve seen, THE temp was sub zero. i am going to america in feburary and its around -20c with 4 ft of snow in the resort!

Looks like a hard frost

[Damien]

so are we having a bad winter with lots of snow or not i am confused :huh: thanks

i hope we have a winter like they did in the 80s i ve never seen one i ve only heard stories about them when you would have to dig tunnels around Cardiff to get to the shops and further north where my mums from in the brecon beacons u would have to climp trew windows to get outside upstairs i hope we have a very wintery winter

this is the most i ve seen, THE temp was sub zero. i am going to america in feburary and its around -20c with 4 ft of snow in the resort!

It's not likely to happen. Cold winters are a fantasy. So stop posting "daydreams" about them on weather forums and go and fight greenhouse with t-shirts, flyers, and litter collection! Yay!

Also, for years-and-years now on these online weather forums people have forecast a cold (and snowy) winter: none have come to pass (though late February 2005 was *quite* snowy in certain places and the Met Office had *some* success with the winter 2005/06 forecast).

Fight the power! Fight greenhouse! Go, go, go!!!

(LOL @ Turnedoutniceagain (just seen your comments mate). But seriously this is why exactly we need old, failed weather forecast pinned - peer-ee-od. )

[ribster]

It's not likely to happen. Cold winters are a fantasy. So stop posting "daydreams" about them on weather forums and go and fight greenhouse with t-shirts, flyers, and litter collection! Yay!

Also, for years-and-years now on these online weather forums people have forecast a cold (and snowy) winter: none have come to pass (though late February 2005 was *quite* snowy in certain places and the Met Office had *some* success with the winter 2005/06 forecast).

Fight the power! Fight greenhouse! Go, go, go!!!

(LOL @ Turnedoutniceagain (just seen your comments mate). But seriously this is why exactly we need old, failed weather forecast pinned - peer-ee-od. )

[Wales123098]

what are you on about then????

you started this whole thing off but surely there is a possibilty becasue it has been a below average summer and in Cardiff it didnt even reach 30c never mind the surrounding areas.

what about those things on page 1 showing november to be cold across europe anyway i aint too botherd me iam moving 15 MILES outside Toronto, Canada in a few years so and i am going to have it done but it would be nice to see it in this country, hopefully we will? but whats happend scence those graphs on page 1 please tell me but not all this scitentific stuff i am only 13 thanks

[jethro]

It's not likely to happen. Cold winters are a fantasy. So stop posting "daydreams" about them on weather forums and go and fight greenhouse with t-shirts, flyers, and litter collection! Yay!

Also, for years-and-years now on these online weather forums people have forecast a cold (and snowy) winter: none have come to pass (though late February 2005 was *quite* snowy in certain places and the Met Office had *some* success with the winter 2005/06 forecast).

Fight the power! Fight greenhouse! Go, go, go!!!

(LOL @ Turnedoutniceagain (just seen your comments mate). But seriously this is why exactly we need old, failed weather forecast pinned - peer-ee-od. )

Oooo, sour grapes. Leave us oldies alone with our memories, it's one of the basic rights of shall we say, those who are a bit long in the tooth; to remember, reflect and annoy youngsters with tales of "when I was your age".

Laser; remember breathing on the window of your bedroom to thaw out a patch so you could see outside? All those wonderful, spidery, frost patterns which had frozen overnight on the inside of the glass.

[Damien]

Hope this makes sense I'm quite busy and pushed for time tonight.

what are you on about then????

you started this whole thing off

Yeah - and I stand by my approaches throughout this entire thread (and the last 6 years (nearly) even when I was a "learning" "newbie" like you) of scepticism, "salt", and of course and (nowadays) above all scientific and climatological approaches.

what about those things on page 1 showing november to be cold across europe

Just goes to show you didn't read the post - and how we all - myself included as the (liable, *ahem* , sensible and rational poster of the chart) have taken such charts with what (*whispers*... *us adults*... *ahem*) call a due pinch of salt. Which basically means that we have all been here before, once bitten twice (if not thrice+) shy, etc.. We - myself and others - even commented/posted on the reliability and past record of these charts earlier on in the thread - I had a big and quite comprehensive post on it on/or around page 1 if I recall correctly.

but whats happend scence those graphs on page 1 please tell me but not all this scitentific stuff i am only 13 thanks

They are not updated yet. When they do (early September-ish perhaps? - so not too long now) we will tell you and you will be the first to know. (I'm eagerly awaiting the February chart myself... off the record.)

In the meantime remember that even when they do - whatever they may show - it's only a prediction and not yet may come off. (Not to be rude - but another indication that you are a newbie and don't (yet) know much about the weather charts and the history of the weather forums is that you took the "pretty looking" ECPC chart for granted and for gospel - please don't take that the wrong way: you are of course welcome here.)

Good luck on your trip to Toronto.

Great photos of Wales(?) BTW too!

Oooo, sour grapes. Leave us oldies alone with our memories, it's one of the basic rights of shall we say, those who are a bit long in the tooth; to remember, reflect and annoy youngsters with tales of "when I was your age".

Or patronise and annoy "elders" of "when I was not your age".

Laser; remember breathing on the window of your bedroom to thaw out a patch so you could see outside? All those wonderful, spidery, frost patterns which had frozen overnight on the inside of the glass.

Or, as I said earlier, the light from the window of a house as it reflects on the lying, un-melting, unthawing snow outside.

Wales123098 - I am not here to patronise or annoy you: I am here to warn you. No one was here to warn me from 2002 onwards: I had to learn that myself. You have now literally hundreds of experienced users (some silent) who can warn you of the quagmire you have stepped into. Going abroad for snow is the right step but believe me - while you're here... watch out for the... gosh, I don't know what to say. Maybe the "bipolar existence of the weather forums" (or "rollercoaster existence of the weather forums")? But just watch out and don't take what's written, posted, or shown for gospel. Please.

(And admins we need this advice or better written advice like this pinned for next winter for the inevitable influx of newbies we get who go straight into the winter of model discussion thread(s) - you know what I mean. Thank you.)

[Wales123098]

thanks yep i am off to canada to live family are moving over there and then i am planning to study Metrology in Toronto i am very intrested in the weather scence i been very little now and enjoy studying and reading about it very much, i did read it all but it alot to take in all in one go lol anyway thanks again

Richard , Cardiff, Mid Glamorgan, Wales

ANOTHER picuture of Wales Countryside for you (Brecon Beacons by family)

[Damien]

Laserguy, 'the passing of the years and the degeneration of our winters into the current nonsense is tragic' - that's a fantastic quote and pretty much sums it up for me.

Just ignore him. I wasn't gonna post on this but now I've read his post....

One minute he has "over forty (I think he said?) years of experience" and now it's "when I was a little child in the 1980s". Also (and regarding the quote above) someone with that many years experience would note that the 1980s was an unusually "cold" period (at least up until 1987; unofficial (Weather online community) definitions are 1979 (the last severe winter) to 1987) as far as the British climate goes - with near-continual below average summers and winters until "global warming" "kicked in" in/circa 1987/88. So the 1980s was a fluke by British standards - and in fact I once read somewhere that the 1980s was one of the coolest overall decade of the Twentieth Century? Maybe you can help me out there?

He's a charlatan. At least I'm honest about who I am and above all what I know about the weather. My posts above and throughout this thread prove it. Newbies are of course welcome but as in these last two posts incorrect assertions will be corrected and people will be pointed in the right direction. Hence the purpose of these annual "winter" threads.

Sorry and hope I didn't sound too "harsh" in my posts but that's how I read the world tonight, my friends.

Great pictures again Wales123098 and good luck with the course! Hope I was not "too harsh" in my advice to you.

[osmposm]

Be patient little ones,maybe not this year or the next,but soon...?

Laser - what's that?! Maybe not until winter 2009-10 now??!! I could have sworn you were going to get back to us in "a year or two's time" to see how our views had changed (our barbies having by then been ditched to make way for our stock of portable heaters, electric blankets etc) .

[Stratos Ferric]

...although, apparently, the latest Hadley runs suggested a period of global cooling from Feb his year through to early 2009, before significant warming recommences. Maybe this winter might turn out to be our last decent winter, albeit "decent" by modern standards.

... So the 1980s was a fluke by British standards - ...

I wouldn't say the 80s were a fluke. If it seems that way from here then that says far more about where we are now (much warmer) than where we were then. The 80s are hardly outstanding when viewed more widely against the CET record.

[osmposm]

Just ignore him. I wasn't gonna post on this but now I've read his post....One minute he has "over forty (I think he said?) years of experience" and now it's "when I was a little child in the 1980s"

Hey, steady, Damien - if he's forty or forty-one now (years alive is one definition of 'years of experience'), he'd have been 14 or 15 in winter 1981-2, about the right age for being shoved up into the loft by his dad....are you sure he said "little child"?

All right, Laser, when were you born?!!

Edited August 24, 2007 by osmposm

[Damien]

...although, apparently, the latest Hadley runs suggested a period of global cooling from Feb his year through to early 2009, before significant warming recommences. Maybe this winter might turn out to be our last decent winter, albeit "decent" by modern standards.

W-w-where in God's name has that statement come from?

I wouldn't say the 80s were a fluke. If it seems that way from here then that says far more about where we are now (much warmer) than where we were then. The 80s are hardly outstanding when viewed more widely against the CET record.

No - this is based on CET records or something. Apparently, for instance, the 1940s was the warmest period of the Twentieth Century in the world in general (perhaps not surprising with all that war going on - but I digress and remove my tongue from my cheek) while Britain froze. So it's all relative. But yes the 1980s were cold by apparently meteorological global definitions. And also yet the late 1990s-2000s (present) has been quite a lot warmer again by global standards - this is surely obvious by now.

Hey, steady, Damien - if he's forty now (years alive is one definition of 'years of experience'), he'd have only been 14 in winter 1981-2....well, perhaps "little" child is pushing it a little.

Well, according to his post, his father would have had a job lifting him up on his shoulders if he had been older than 14 in 1981.

(... which he should know is a colder than average (and indeed even snowier than average I think by official meteorological definitions) winter and not just that but one of the coldest (in fact the joint with (the surprisingly recent year of) 1995 with -30.somethingºC (I think) being reached for the first ever time within the UK) winters of recent times/the last twenty-five years within one of the coldest (and even to some extents snowiest) periods of the Twentieth Century that Britain had).