Winter 2007/08 rumblings from Bill Giles and the ECPC (NOAA)

[Stratos Ferric]

Crikey Stratos you're on fire today mate.

Good post so I'll pick up on some points:

1998 was just the single warmest year on record/ever recorded (that may have changed to date?) because of increased (in fact record here as well) El Niño, solar activity, "global warming", etc.?

I think the 1940s were the joint warmest overall period along with (perhaps(?)) the 1990s.

...

Damian,

presumably you own a spade shop do you? Or you dig for a living? In the interests of not littering the thread any further I shall leave your last response alone and let casual observers make their own minds up...however, you might still explain some more about the climatic models and the warm 1980s; I'm particularly enjoying watching you disappear into that hole.

New LRFs in a week my friend so just wait we will (hopefully) have a new thread by then.

...

No, seriously, I really can't wait..honestly...

[kold weather]

In the end its hard to judge the 80's without living throfugh so of the other colder spells such as the 60's and while it was cold in the 80's I suspect the 60's were overall every bit as cold overall.

The global set-up right now is pretty decent and as long as La nina doesn't get too strong it should give a good indication hopefully of whether we can still have a cold winter, 05-06 was 1-2 important parts of the puzzle away from another 95-96 IMO in regards to the AO didn't really play ball until late Feb/early March and when it did we had a 30 day spell probably 2C below average.

The other nice thing to that came out the summer is that you can have the warmest 12 month spell ever and still have a month 1C below the norm,which bodes well if we can get the right set-up, but its a big IF nowdays for sure.l

[Damien]

Damian,

presumably you own a spade shop do you? Or you dig for a living? In the interests of not littering the thread any further I shall leave your last response alone and let casual observers make their own minds up...however, you might still explain some more about the climatic models and the warm 1980s; I'm particularly enjoying watching you disappear into that hole.

What's that you say? I can't here you up there? Shout a bit louder!

(On a serious note yes I will try and find this research that showed the 1980s to be a rather more "cold" anomaly as far as the Twentieth Century goes and in fact one of the coldest decades that it could respectively boast over all; I will try and have a look next week.)

No, seriously, I really can't wait..honestly...

I'm part dreading them myself. You know, how it is - we build ourselves up then a fall. And, looking at the rollercoaster, a sheer downward plunge must be coming soon - just hope we ain't riding the NetWeatheresis.

(Wasn't there a downward plunge last August and then a "upward plunge" last September when the Sept./Aug. MetO dynamic runs were revealed? )

[kold weather]

It shou,d be noted however Damien that the 40's warmth came not from the winters but from pretty decent summers, indeed the 40's seemed to have a more European flavor to them it seems.

Indeed the 40's winters overall were about 0.5C cooler on average then those of the 80's and while there were some cold ones in thre 80's for sure, none could match 39-40, 41-42 and 46-47 for cold...indeed even 78-79 was only equal roughly to 39-40 and 46-47 was colder.

Edited August 26, 2007 by kold weather

[summer blizzard]

Indeed the 40's winters overall were about 0.5C cooler on average then those of the 80's and while there were some cold ones in thre 80's for sure, none could match 39-40, 41-42 and 46-47 for cold...indeed even 78-79 was only equal roughly to 39-40 and 46-47 was colder.

That said though, the first half of winter 1947 was pretty average for the 1980's, its just that the second half kicked the **** out of anything else with the coldest February on record.

[summer blizzard]

Interestingly, i thought that it would be good to compare cold pooling to this time in recent years...

This year, the first sustained -10C upper air cold pool formed on the 15th...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2007/...00220070817.png

In regards to the previous ten years (1998 onward) we lie in 6th place, so around average in terms of the -10C cold pool forming...

In regards to the formation of a -15C upper cold pool, only 2006, 2002 and 2001 had gotten to this stage by the end of August, so we currently have nothing to worry about however in every year the -15C upper cold pool had formed by the end of September.

The ensemble mean currently suggests that no -15C upper cold pool will form before the 10th September.

I also thought that it would be interesting to compare the southward extent of the Polar Jet Stream in the North Atlantic and Europe...

At this time, the Polar Jet Stream is only slightly further south than Iceland, so in this regard, we are 5th, since 2000.

For me, the trend that has emerged is that in regards to winter development, we are currently running below average, but not catostrophically so.

[Rollo]

In the end its hard to judge the 80's without living throfugh so of the other colder spells such as the 60's and while it was cold in the 80's I suspect the 60's were overall every bit as cold overall.

The global set-up right now is pretty decent and as long as La nina doesn't get too strong it should give a good indication hopefully of whether we can still have a cold winter, 05-06 was 1-2 important parts of the puzzle away from another 95-96 IMO in regards to the AO didn't really play ball until late Feb/early March and when it did we had a 30 day spell probably 2C below average.

The other nice thing to that came out the summer is that you can have the warmest 12 month spell ever and still have a month 1C below the norm,which bodes well if we can get the right set-up, but its a big IF nowdays for sure.l

Hi Kold, having lived though the 60's winters (but regretfully not keeping proper records for this area) mmy memory bank remembers as follows--- winter 60-61-probably a fairly average winter with no snowfalls of note,61-62-a very cold spell starting around the 23rd December with fair amounts of snow especially in the south (over a foot deep in the Southampton area) lasting up to the end of the year,after that a fairly nondescript January was followed by some pretty cold snowy weather mid Feb to mid march. 62-63 is of course the star winter of the decade. 63-64 was I believe nothing special but 64-65 produced a fair amount of cold snowy weather.65-66 was also remembered for some decent snowfalls but 66-67 was as far as this are was concerned nothing of note . 67-68 produced some decent snow and was certainly in my opinion a good winter but 68-69 was imo not anything like the previous year. Compared to recent times the majority of the sixties winters were where most of us would like to be now but times have changed.

[Stratos Ferric]

That said though, the first half of winter 1947 was pretty average for the 1980's, its just that the second half kicked the **** out of anything else with the coldest February on record.

But none of the 80s winters had sustained cold. 78/9 was persistently cold but not extremely so (Jan 79 arguably came close to the label), and the winters of the 80s usually had mild Decembers, barring of course the remarkable 1982.

Early winter 1947 was enything but "average" by the way. All three winter months were >1C below par, a feat since then matched only by '53, '63 and '65. All but ' 63 went on to have an equally cold March as well. Drop the qulifying ,ark to 1.5C per month and 1947 stands alone: all four months came in below this mark.

[osmposm]

Yes, although the serious and prolonged cold of 46-47 didn't kick in until the last ten days of January, it was mainly well below average earlier on. December 1946 started mild, but became cold within a week. The middle two weeks were properly cold and often snowy, with frequent easterlies, before warming up in time for Christmas and the New Year. Jan 47 again started mild, had a cold snap after about a week, then went very mild mid-month, before the cold and snowy weather returned with a vengeance on around the 20th......and thus it stayed until March.

[snowmadchrisuk]

By +216 on the latest gfs run we have cold air from the current cold pooling right down the east coast of the uk and we have tempratures close to freezing. If this comes off a stunning winter to come.

[kippure]

By +216 on the latest gfs run we have cold air from the current cold pooling right down the east coast of the uk and we have tempratures close to freezing. If this comes off a stunning winter to come.

More and more cold gfs runs showing up? Cant wait for all the autumn outlooks from all the web sites over the next couple of days!

[Optimus Prime]

But none of the 80s winters had sustained cold. 78/9 was persistently cold but not extremely so (Jan 79 arguably came close to the label), and the winters of the 80s usually had mild Decembers, barring of course the remarkable 1982.

Early winter 1947 was enything but "average" by the way. All three winter months were >1C below par, a feat since then matched only by '53, '63 and '65. All but ' 63 went on to have an equally cold March as well. Drop the qulifying ,ark to 1.5C per month and 1947 stands alone: all four months came in below this mark.

I think you meant December 1981 was a remarkable month. December 1982 was cool at 4.4c but December 1981 was extremely cold at 0.3c. Widely the anomaly was as much as 5.0c below average and I ssupect 6.0c locally. The month was categorized quite neatly. Mild start and end but remarkably cold middle. The winter of 1981/1982 was probably one of the most exceptional of the century by that it is the only winter that holds records in both months. December 1981 had some jaw dropping-le low temperatures. Maximum of -12.1c at Shawbury on the 13th dropping to -25.1c the following night. This was the lowest reading of December of the century until the next remarkable month of December 1995.

Then January 1982 came. It started mild with all of the snow melted from the December freeze. Then it become exceptionally cold again from the east from the 5th. More record temperatures, 27.2c at Braemer was the record low for Britain until 1995 and then maxima of just -19.1c the following day was the lowest maximum ever recorded. Then the minimum of -26.1c recorded just outside Newport, Shropshire was the record low for England (Which had just been set in December!)

February 1982 was then quite mild and went on to be, overall a pretty mild year 1982.

Edited August 26, 2007 by Optimus Prime

[johnholmes]

Yes, although the serious and prolonged cold of 46-47 didn't kick in until the last ten days of January, it was mainly well below average earlier on. December 1946 started mild, but became cold within a week. The middle two weeks were properly cold and often snowy, with frequent easterlies, before warming up in time for Christmas and the New Year. Jan 47 again started mild, had a cold snap after about a week, then went very mild mid-month, before the cold and snowy weather returned with a vengeance on around the 20th......and thus it stayed until March.

I remember it well, perhaps not too much detail but remember it I do.

[VillagePlank]

I smell of tacos and cheese.

Irrelevant, I know, but, at least, I will admit it that it is irrelevant.

This forthcoming winter, I suspect, is one for deniers, one for the sceptics, one for those who wish to pursue a course of scientific inexcellence. The SST's are in place, the teleconnections look good, and we can only but pray and look on. Unless that is that someone around here has some form of analysis that is hitherto unknown and is sitting on a meteorological (and financial) goldmine.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

But none of the 80s winters had sustained cold. 78/9 was persistently cold but not extremely so (Jan 79 arguably came close to the label), and the winters of the 80s usually had mild Decembers, barring of course the remarkable 1982.

Early winter 1947 was enything but "average" by the way. All three winter months were >1C below par, a feat since then matched only by '53, '63 and '65. All but ' 63 went on to have an equally cold March as well. Drop the qulifying ,ark to 1.5C per month and 1947 stands alone: all four months came in below this mark.

SF

What do you quantify as sustained cold? I assume 3 months as both 86 and 87 had Jan and Feb below average with severe spells and indeed cold marches

BFTP

Edited August 26, 2007 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[TEITS]

But none of the 80s winters had sustained cold. 78/9 was persistently cold but not extremely so (Jan 79 arguably came close to the label), and the winters of the 80s usually had mild Decembers, barring of course the remarkable 1982.

I disagree.

As we know Dec 1981 had a sustained period of cold which followed in Jan after a brief respite. During Jan 1984 parts of Scotland had snow lying for 30days of the month. In Jan 1985 there was a bitter 3 week spell with frequent snow and another very cold spell during the 2nd week of Feb. As you know Feb 1986 was the 2nd coldest Feb of the 20th century which began during the end of Jan and continued into the beginning of March. I won't mention 1987 because although this cold spell was severe it was very shortlived.

I suppose alot depends on what you would class as a sustained period of cold. I personally class any cold spell lasting more than 2 weeks being sustained and the winters I describe above are an example of that. When it comes to winters such as 47, 62/63, 78/79 these are very rare events and because our prevailing weather is from the SW any cold spell lasting more than 2 weeks should be considered sustained and noteworthy.

[Steady Easterly]

SF

What do you quantify as sustained cold? I assume 3 months as both 86 and 87 had Jan and Feb below average with severe spells and indeed cold marches

BFTP

The thing is SF can rememember such spells, for what its worth 79 was the daddy of all winters from my memory.

[johnholmes]

I'm putting some stats together for the coldest winter months and winters from 1900. Using the CET figures from this site

By coldest winters/months, I have taken the temperature to be at least 2.0C below the CET average for each winter month shown in the link below.

http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley...av_temperat.htm

and then comparing the two obviously coldest winters of the 20th century, 1946-47 and 1962-63 with the data I have for RAF Finningley and the limited data available for Sheffield(it has no snow details)but does have air frost information.

The Sheffield data is for Weston Park with records right back to 1883. Its one of the longest for any city and is still being kept.

The thing is SF can rememember such spells, for what its worth 79 was the daddy of all winters from my memory.

but a little blip compared to others!

I disagree.

As we know Dec 1981 had a sustained period of cold which followed in Jan after a brief respite. During Jan 1984 parts of Scotland had snow lying for 30days of the month. In Jan 1985 there was a bitter 3 week spell with frequent snow and another very cold spell during the 2nd week of Feb. As you know Feb 1986 was the 2nd coldest Feb of the 20th century which began during the end of Jan and continued into the beginning of March. I won't mention 1987 because although this cold spell was severe it was very shortlived.

I suppose alot depends on what you would class as a sustained period of cold. I personally class any cold spell lasting more than 2 weeks being sustained and the winters I describe above are an example of that. When it comes to winters such as 47, 62/63, 78/79 these are very rare events and because our prevailing weather is from the SW any cold spell lasting more than 2 weeks should be considered sustained and noteworthy.

by the method I've quoted(-2.0C<CET for the month) January 1982 just missed out with 2.6C compared to the 1971-2000 mean of 4.2C

Edited August 26, 2007 by johnholmes

[Optimus Prime]

January 1982 had a large drop in average temperature mid-month. From the 13th -14th the temperature went from a CET 0.5c to -0.1c. A drop of 0.6c in one day! On an already low temperature. The lowest point was the 16th and 17 at -0.4c and -0.1c. From then on it rose on average 0.2c everyday.

December 1981 had some similar large drops. On the 11th it was 2.5c to then drop 0.9c to 1.6c. It then went to a low of -0.2c on Christmas eve, Christmas day, Boxing day and the 27th. Then rose slightly to 0.3c for months end.

[osmposm]

I suppose alot depends on what you would class as a sustained period of cold.......When it comes to winters such as 47, 62/63, 78/79 these are very rare events and because our prevailing weather is from the SW any cold spell lasting more than 2 weeks should be considered sustained and noteworthy.

Yes, TEITS, I tend to agree with you there. Although from my youth in the 50s-70s I remember regular periods of bitter cold, my impression is that they seldom lasted more than a fortnight - and often rather less.

Does anyone know if there any daily temp records from any British site dating from as early as that available online? Weather-UK has some useful data from as far back as the 50s, but only in monthly summary form. It would be interesting to confirm how long at a time cold generally used to hit us for - especially in lowland England - in the "good old days".

[Stratos Ferric]

SF

What do you quantify as sustained cold? I assume 3 months as both 86 and 87 had Jan and Feb below average with severe spells and indeed cold marches

BFTP

The markers I was using previously were <1C below par, and then less than 1.5C. Truly extreme months tend to have been at least 3C below the norm. Have to go back to Feb '86 for one of those, though December '95 knocked on the door.

The thing is SF can rememember such spells, for what its worth 79 was the daddy of all winters from my memory.

Only 78/9 is in my lifetime (of the "white knuckle" winters). My mother assured me that though it was snowy, it wasn't a patch on either 1963 or 1947 (I suspect one or two others in the hinterlands may well have "bettered" 78/9, but were relatively eclipsed by 47 and 63), and from photographic records I've seen down the years I'd tend to agree. What was impressive about 78/9 was that it went on and on: the cold was fairly persistent, though severe cold came in pulses and every month from December - March had severe snowfall at least once. It was memorable for me because snow persisted at my parents' on the outskirts of Leeds from December 29th to around Feb 24th, and then came back with interest in March. It was still snowing in early May: snow fell every day from the 1st - 5th.

[moogyboobles]

Only 78/9 is in my lifetime (of the "white knuckle" winters). My mother assured me that though it was snowy, i

Yep I was born in Jan 79 and have been told many times how my mum came out of hospital in Chelmsford knee deep in snow.

[TEITS]

When it comes to the winters of 47, 62/63, 78/79 there were all noteworthy in there own different ways.

The winter of 47 was probably the most severe out of them all because not only was it prolonged, very cold, there was also huge amounts of snowfall. Now 1962/63 was different in many ways because the cold spell was more prolonged and was of course the coldest winter since 1739. However although there were snow events there was also many fine, sunny days in comparison to 1947.

Now the winter of 78/79 was a different beast altogether because inbetween the blizzards there was actually shorter milder interludes so the cold wasn't as intense or prolonged as 47,63. Going back to the blizzards these really were beasts from the E B) and from what I remember as a child the sheer amount of snowfall was incredible and the only word to describe those blizzards was vicious. There were two main snow events during this period and these were 31st Dec 78 & 15th Feb 79. The synoptics that bought the snowfall was different because whereas in 47 a majority of the snowfall was due to prolonged snow showers, in 78/79 the blizzards came via a LP on a S,ly tracking Jetstream. With pressure being high to our N these LP systems tracked along the English channel and the result of this is brutal blizzards. The E counties experienced the most severe conditions because once the frontal snowfall had moved away the LP system to our E pulled in very strong cold E,lys from the continent and the result of this is further heavy snowfall via convective showers and as we have seen from the 1987 E,ly this can result in massive snowfall.

Here are the charts from the blizzards I mention.

Can you imagine what would happen on this forum if such charts like this occured this winter and a cold pool was present on the continent :o

[Charltonkerry]

I must admit that I still get the hairs on the back of my neck start to stand to attention (and I am nearly bald) at the mention of the winter of 62/63, I was 10 and living in a poor council estate in Dartford, Kent, money was extermly tight and luxury was only a thing that people who lived up the other hill could afford.

It was round about boxing day when the snow started to fall and purely from memory it continued through to early March, I have read in numerous reports the this winter was sunny however in my diary I noted the first sighting of the sun was in March, perhaps that was due to our location. I remember waking up in the morning with curtains frozen to the inside of the windows, snow laying on bedroom carpets and quilts having to be taken downstairs to be thawed out. We could only afford heating in 1 room and this was the front room which was kept for Sundays only use, however as the winter wore on we where allowed in. The only other heating was from cooking or washing in the kitchen.

My first job in the morning was to dig our way out to shed to bring in the frozen coal so that my mother could light the fire (my father used to go out to work at about 5.30 am), we could not afford to heat the house at night so even the front room had frozen up windows. After this we used to light the parafin heater in the shed to try and defrost the outside loo.

Being at junior school was fabulous as when we arrived the schoolrooms where warm, the snowball fights against the girls where epic, and the playground ice slides where 100's yards long. Who cannot remember the thrill off seeing your free milk sitting in the crate with the milk bottle tops raised about 1/2" above the top of the bottle and waiting for the frozen milk to defrost.

When I came home from school I remember that I had to buy salt from the local shop and sprinkle on the path outside our house to try to melt the ice, never understood why as it was always refrozen next morning, and this led to major incident when all the local shops run out of salt in January I believe it was the first time I heard my mum swear.

But the low time of the day was having to go to bed, the fire was dying, the front room was getting chilly, you knew that you had to battle out to the outside loo for your final ..., if it was snowing it was slightly better as it was marginally warmer, but whilst you where out there you always knew that you had to get into BED, this meant sliding into a sub zero sheets, curling up into a ball and shivering and listening to your teeth chattering until you finally fell asleep. Even when you where asleep you knew deep down that at 7AM your mother would pull back quilt and all that warmth that you generated during your sleep would creep away and the whole frozen episode would start again.

Oh the memories are they good ones, I think on the whole I would say that they are as I think you blank out the bad ones, could we survive another winter like that, I believe the we would, but what finacial state that the country and it inferstructure would be in is another thing, there would be power cuts, gas shortages, food shortages, supermakets would suffer from staff shortages, the whole distribution network would be in near collapse, and I leave it to your imagination as to what would happen to the transport system.

Sorry if this is off topic, but I see people wishing for high and low temperatures on this site and do wish that they would consider the consequances, extreme in temperatures will always mean a breakdown in the infastructures of this country, we are so reliant nowdays on the transport / distribution, power system etc, in the (g)olden days we all had coal fires, therefore if we lost power it did not matter, but just think the central heating will not work if we lose electricity today so how would keep warm, boil your kettle etc?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

When it comes to the winters of 47, 62/63, 78/79 there were all noteworthy in there own different ways.

Here are the charts from the blizzards I mention.

That was the baby!!! Drifts above the door in that one in S Wales

BFTP