Winter 2007/08 rumblings from Bill Giles and the ECPC (NOAA)

[Damien]

Just scouring through the other long-range weather charts available at the moment (and eagerly awaiting the ECPC's February take). Good God @ CFS's December.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop...uT2mMonNorm.gif

Also an El Niño is continuing to look likely for next year - my last winter with you all.

The milder Greece this winter also seems to be a recurring theme in the LRFs too.

[Gray-Wolf]

I just know, from the northern hemispheres recent past, that extreme winter bursts somewhere in the N. hemisphere will likely occur and, statistically our odds of getting one are reducing.

When the 'mixing' and our extra/increasing heat 'balances out',or the poles become + temps over winter then we'll have extreme warmth ploughing north and displaced Polar being pushed south bringing with it the potential of snow events to more 'moisture laden' areas leading to 'roof collapses' in modern buildings and widespread ,local, disruption.

All part of the 'Global Warming' package and plainly printed out on the label.

[Damien]

For any of the newbies thinking that ramping is extremem and early this year, people should remember that in 2005, a sub-forum had to be created due to the shear volume of early ramping.

:unsure:

(On another note, it was the MetO forecast that did it.)

Also, the June-July anologues suggest a higher than average incidence of both northrlies and easterlies and also lower than average pressure suggesting lots of snow.

What - is that this year or 2005? :o

And I don't want to add any fuel to the fire but......

Is that the Alps a few weeks ago - when they had the early August snow. :o

[Stratos Ferric]

At the moment nobody is forecasting a severe winter and all the posts on this thread are merely discussing the possiblities of what may lie ahead.

Personally I haven't a clue at this stage and prefer to look at the signals between Oct-Nov of what kind of winter we may have. What I don't do is just assume our winter will be mild based on our recent winters because this summer has been a great example of not using the past to predict the future. Let's face it considering our summers in recent years who on earth would of predicted this dreadful summer and im not just talking weather wise but synoptically.

I always look forward to Damiens posts on this subject especially around this time of year and IMO alot of the fun isn't the actual winter itself but discussing what may possibly happen.

1 - Oooh, there'll be one along any time soon.

2 - Sensible words.

3 - Not just a lot of the fun, but nearly all of it!

Hope you've got the wallpaper at the ready. Not long to wait now.

One problem...this year's chart doesn't exist yet. ...

BFTP

Pedant!

[Stu_London]

1 - Oooh, there'll be one along any time soon. Can we expect a severe winter forecast from you SF?

2 - Sensible words. Let alone the 6th September - a day that we are all agreed doesn't even exist yet

3 - Not just a lot of the fun, but nearly all of it! Those long nights of darkness must simply fly by

Hope you've got the wallpaper at the ready. Not long to wait now.

Pedant!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Pedant!

LoL

BFTP

[kold weather]

Also an El Niño is continuing to look likely for next year - my last winter with you all.

I presume you mean La nina?

Because El nino is not even in site right now, this winter will very likely be La Nina overall.

for what its worth if you want a cold winter the La nina must not get above weak, if it does then the chance sof a cold winter decreases a lot and on top of recent warming it wouldn't bode at all well.

However a weak La nina could well be okay, two decent example of fairly recent weak La nina winters are 05-06 (don't nag Damien, it was good for some and cold for a lot of the country at times) and also 95-96.

[Stu_London]

I presume you mean La nina?

Because El nino is not even in site right now, this winter will very likely be La Nina overall.

for what its worth if you want a cold winter the La nina must not get above weak, if it does then the chance sof a cold winter decreases a lot and on top of recent warming it wouldn't bode at all well.

However a weak La nina could well be okay, two decent example of fairly recent weak La nina winters are 05-06 (don't nag Damien, it was good for some and cold for a lot of the country at times) and also 95-96.

The last set of anomolies I saw looked to my untrained eye as if La Nina was strengthening - any views KW?

[Damien]

I presume you mean La nina?

Because El nino is not even in site right now, this winter will very likely be La Nina overall.

No - I mean next year (into the 2008/09 winter).

No word on the strength on the El Niño yet. This would also fit in with higher sunspot patterns/solar activity - expected to peak in 2010 (Chuter). Not good news for the rest of the winters of the 2000s already I'm afraid. Sucks.

for what its worth if you want a cold winter the La nina must not get above weak, if it does then the chance sof a cold winter decreases a lot and on top of recent warming it wouldn't bode at all well.

However a weak La nina could well be okay, two decent example of fairly recent weak La nina winters are 05-06 (don't nag Damien, it was good for some and cold for a lot of the country at times) and also 95-96.

Agreed - and it's the same with El Niño, although one sight of an El Niño - no matter how strong or weak - and your chances of a cold or colder than average British winter are already reduced significantly.

2004/05 (I think - or one of those "type" years) had/was a weak La Niña winter - and it was "less" bad as far as snowlessness in winter/s goes. :wub:

And this winter's La Niña is quite weak or looks to develop that way - am I right?

* It was 2003/04 - my bad.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seaso.../nao/index.html

Anyone know when this was last updated ??

[Damien]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seaso.../nao/index.html

Anyone know when this was last updated ??

It's based on May(-June?) SSTs - it's the NOAA's and ECPC's (they're the same organisation actually - just different computers AFAIK) models that update/base themselves on continuing ocean temperature movement(is that the right word?). IRI might do this as well.

Speaking of which a new LRF to post later....

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Speaking of which a new LRF to post later....

:wub: or :wub: ??

[Glacier Point]

Agreed - and it's the same with El Niño, although one sight of an El Niño - no matter how strong or weak - and your chances of a cold or colder than average British winter are already reduced significantly.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CW...ent.ascii.table

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/mei.data

I disagree. 1950/51, 1955/56, 1957/58, 1965/66, 1970/71, 2002/03. All strong modality of ENSO (either way) but didn't stop the AO hitting quite negative values.

What we must consider here is the likely strength of the QBO come November. My call, based on where we have come from this Spring, would be for a record easterly QBO peaking late October / November.

This is going to result in a lot of tropical forcing. Unfortunately, the QBO's influence on polar height anomalies is not strong enough to bank on, but it will at least sort out the jet to our south:

The big uncertainty for me at this stage is the likely strength of the winter-time polar vortex.

[SMU]

The big uncertainty for me at this stage is the likely strength of the winter-time polar vortex.

Deep strong & Displaced to the east away from Greenland.....

S

[Damien]

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CW...ent.ascii.table

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Correlation/mei.data

I disagree. 1950/51, 1955/56, 1957/58, 1965/66, 1970/71, 2002/03. All strong modality of ENSO (either way) but didn't stop the AO hitting quite negative values.

I said, specifically - and took great care and caution to do so - a "cold or colder than average" winter. I didn't say anything about the AO or NAO conditions. Look that the winter of 1997/98 for a famous example - the winter was a very negative NAO, yet the El Niño made it mild (as always :wub: ) in (North-)Western Europe.

Staggeringly (and very frustratingly) it had very little affect on (2)North America that winter - with Canada recording record ice storms early in that year, I think I'm right? :wub:

What we must consider here is the likely strength of the QBO come November. My call, based on where we have come from this Spring, would be for a record easterly QBO peaking late October / November.

Is that good news or bad news? Forgive me I don't know much about the QBO.

:wub: or :wub: ??

Don't set your standards too high if I were you:

IRI:

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/n...7_Eur_temp.html

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/n...7_Eur_temp.html

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/n...8_Eur_temp.html

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/n...8_Eur_temp.html

If anything a drier than average winter is hinted at.

( )

[kold weather]

On average though GP strong La nina/El nino will give above average, esp strong El nino which I found out suggests temps on average to be 0.9C above normal.

Weak La nina also averaged above normal but there was a lot more uncertainty with a misture of above normaL and below normal and this suggests that something else is probably dominating the global set-up, quite probably the AO/QBO.

By the way i wonder whether the very -ve AO of 97-98 was more of a result of the powerful jet streamwinter creating a strong pressure gradient and helping to form powerful, if not long lived highs in the Arctic region?

If we do get a strong easterly QBO it would bode well for a greenland high on average, esp if the AO also decides to be in a -ve AO phase at the same time and if we keep a weak La nina present then things look decent but right now those are big ifs it has to be said. If we can get a -ve AO then a more pumped up version of 05-06 looks possible, maybe more akin to 95-96 in terms of temps, if the AO doesn't play ball then it'll be back to the drawing board!

Edited August 22, 2007 by kold weather

[beng]

http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_images.jsp?cn...820&org=NSF

Anyone want to comment on the veracity of the above model. Basically when Autumn snowfall is above average in Siberia, this tends to create a more intense Siberian High pressure cell - which in turn leads to stratospheric warming at the start of January, sending the AO negative and leading to colder N American and European winters.

It may well be put to the test this year, since the very low levels of Sea Ice should make more moisture available for snowfall (Sept-Nov) across Siberian and Northern Canada.

Edited August 22, 2007 by beng

[Glacier Point]

Worth checking this one out when September - November snowcover was at low levels to see if there is a significant enough correlation to test for the UK winter (Northern Europe translates to eastern Europe in the article) (the thoery should work both ways if it has any validity to it).

Certainly the pressure anomalies over the pole, with blocking over Alaska and upper low over Siberia are conducive to early seasonal snowfall in a month or two's time.

[beng]

Worth checking this one out when September - November snowcover was at low levels to see if there is a significant enough correlation to test for the UK winter (Northern Europe translates to eastern Europe in the article) (the thoery should work both ways if it has any validity to it).

Certainly the pressure anomalies over the pole, with blocking over Alaska and upper low over Siberia are conducive to early seasonal snowfall in a month or two's time.

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/snow/snw_cvr_area/EU_AREA

That's got the snow cover area by month since 1973 - but I don't see any obvious pattern. Maybe the model details relate to specific areas in Siberia and snow depth rather than area? - not sure where we can see that level of data though.

[Gavin P]

I think Siberian snow cover is important for Continents, and whilst yes, it does play a part in our weather, I think Atlantic SST's are more decisive for us. We've had a number of winters recently where the Siberian High HAS been strong, and has delivered much of Europe with severe cold, but it never really reached us.

[Anti-Mild]

Just like last year all the signs and portents look to be favourable, but look what happened.

No matter whether Siberia is under 4 foot of snow in October and the PV is far to the east of Greenland and SST's are favourable for a -ve NAO and QBO is easterly, etc....the one that really matters is the AO. That's the trump card and if that is positive then nothing else matters.

That said, I have high hopes for the coming winter, it could be a cracker if the AO plays ball!!!

[summer blizzard]

On average though GP strong La nina/El nino will give above average, esp strong El nino which I found out suggests temps on average to be 0.9C above normal.

Weak La nina also averaged above normal but there was a lot more uncertainty with a misture of above normaL and below normal and this suggests that something else is probably dominating the global set-up, quite probably the AO/QBO.

By the way i wonder whether the very -ve AO of 97-98 was more of a result of the powerful jet streamwinter creating a strong pressure gradient and helping to form powerful, if not long lived highs in the Arctic region?

If we do get a strong easterly QBO it would bode well for a greenland high on average, esp if the AO also decides to be in a -ve AO phase at the same time and if we keep a weak La nina present then things look decent but right now those are big ifs it has to be said. If we can get a -ve AO then a more pumped up version of 05-06 looks possible, maybe more akin to 95-96 in terms of temps, if the AO doesn't play ball then it'll be back to the drawing board!

Tbh Kold, i would actually prefer a weak El Nino, this means that it would allow the QBO to dominate the pattern, however it would give a slight bias towards lower than average Atlantic pressure.

The ENSO state is not the be all and end all of winter, for instance La Nina favours a negative AO/positive NAO, and El Nino, visa versa, thus other factors must come into play.

QBO anologues are currently looking quite good for the winter, which in combination with a weak La Nina should give a bias towards quite a negative AO.

[Martin Chuter]

Metcheck's Martin Chuter (solar expert) also said that 2007/08 stood the highest chance of being the coldest this decade - but that was in 2002.

By the way the cold in November 1993 didn't hurt our February 1994 (certainly not where I lived).

Wow, did I say that 5 years ago??? Blimey indeed!!!

I would still stick to my guns and say that the winters of 2007 and 2008, will be cold or colder than usual. Lets face it, solar activity has been very, very quiet for the past few months now. Hardly any sunspot or solar flare activity. But, we are pretty much at solar minimum now, so that's to be expected.

[Damien]

Wow, did I say that 5 years ago??? Blimey indeed!!!

I would still stick to my guns and say that the winters of 2007 and 2008, will be cold or colder than usual. Lets face it, solar activity has been very, very quiet for the past few months now. Hardly any sunspot or solar flare activity. But, we are pretty much at solar minimum now, so that's to be expected.

Wow, I knew it was only a matter of time until a living legend replied to one of my posts.

Yes, I remember your Metcheck article about it. Do you still stand by your predictions of winter patterns/trends after this minima with increasing El Niño activity in the background of others factors like solar activity making the winters of the early 2010s being "write-offs" (dare I say) already.

Good point on solar activity (in particular sunspots) but I'm not sure I agree on the prospects for this coming winter (I've got a bad feeling about 2008/09 anyway with El Niño possibly appearing, trends, etc.). Can solar science still be used to climate science/predict the weather on Earth because a lot of recent articles have pulled down this theory.

As for the IRI forecast: well, it hasn't received much comments, has it? Not surprising given it's accuracy over the past two winters (called last winter mostly mild IIRC, winters 2004/05 and 2005/06 to be more "average" - certainly late winter/February 2005). Pretty much as encouraging as the performance at Wembley yesterday.

(I'll get my coat.)

[shuggee]

Right. This thread is all over the place.

All the talk of the METO Autumn Forecast has been moved to the correct area:

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=40061

The original title of this thread is:

Winter 2007/08 rumblings from Bill Giles and the ECPC (NOAA), Some staggering runs... and some staggering similarities

Please stick to this topic - and as more info comes in regarding the lrfs for this coming winter (in just over 100 days time) feel free to pontificate in this thread :lol: