Winter 2007/08 rumblings from Bill Giles and the ECPC (NOAA)

[osmposm]

Well, according to his post, his father would have had a job lifting him up on his shoulders if he had been older than 14 in 1981.

Damien, I've just found an earlier post in which Laser told us he is 42, so he was probably 16 in 1981-2. Perhaps I am going blind, but I cannot find any post in which he said he was a "little child in the 1980s". If you cannot either, then I think you owe him an apology for calling him a charlatan (in bold, moreover),and implying he's not being honest about who he is.

We are both in frequent disagreement with Laserguy about the changes in our climate, but I don't think apparently baseless insults contribute much.

[Damien]

Damien, I've just found an earlier post in which Laser told us he is 42

Yes, that's where I think I got it from. It was something like that but I think it was referring to a certain number of years (with a "0" on) experience in the weather/meteorology. For the record - and I am quite open about this - my interest in meteorology direct goes back to 1997, if not earlier (but with just the general weather, etc.).

, so he was probably 16 in 1981-2. Perhaps I am going blind, but I cannot find any post in which he said he was a "little child in the 1980s". If you cannot either, then I think you owe him an apology for calling him a charlatan (in bold, moreover),and implying he's not being honest about who he is.

Yeah, I think I put together his "I remember the winters of the 1980s" (or similar) comments with his "I remember when I was a kid.../me and my dad" etc. comments. My bad - again.

But I'm sure you will agree that "the passing of the years and the degeneration of our winters into the current nonsense is tragic" was a silly comment - and I have I believe thoroughly(?) pulled down his comments that he has these "years of experience of/in the weather" when he calls the winters of the 1980s "normal" - not taken into account local or even global factors of why these winters were so. Of course there is the climate science (greenhouse) argument but that's another matter - albeit a very much related one.

(Then again Stratos has also just earlier thrown the same argument back at me. As in the discussion with John Holmes about the accuracy of the MetO winter 2005/06 forecast a week (or so) ago, climate models do not back up the theory that the 1980s was a normal (winter) period for Britain and perhaps indeed even also the world. (Come to think maybe the local methods at the time (and remember there was no CFS or weather forums then) would have accounted, by the mid-1980s surely, the current "cold" winters as being the "average" for the time - but given long-term patterns - that we now know and new technology has now revealed (through GFS et al.), it's just not true. Not anymore, anyway.)

We are both in frequent disagreement with Laserguy about the changes in our climate, but I don't think apparently baseless insults contribute much.

And - for one last time and conversely as much - his comments on "the degeneration of our winters into the current nonsense" "don't contribute much" to our discussions here too, right? I believe it was he who mentioned the (current) British winters/weather in general was "scum" or "acting like scum" once. That's a strong word for a sensible, rational weather and climate discussion IMHO. I'm sorry but experienced weather forecasters (compare him with, say, our great John Holmes and other "freelancers" like Metcheck's(ex-?) Martin Chuter CNS who posted on here today) don't use that kind of language, insanely illogical arguments... let alone that kind of punctuation! Even Jonathan Powell from WeatherAction (or whatever it is) can punctuate his writing properly! Thus, as long he continues to make these "baseless" assertions, use this "common" kind of language (which I say again has no place on a weather forum like this IMHO), and post vacuous arguments in the style of a "ramping newbie", I will continue to, kindly, and the admins can message me or post and correct me on this if they want, treat him as such. As you say, he has to "earn his pennies".

Anyhow I hope we've all learnt something tonight! Paul or John can feel free to tell me off if they think I'm going "below the belt" as the saying goes, LOL.

[TEITS]

Oooo, sour grapes. Leave us oldies alone with our memories, it's one of the basic rights of shall we say, those who are a bit long in the tooth; to remember, reflect and annoy youngsters with tales of "when I was your age".

I love looking back at some of those classic winters of the 80's and very often have a look at some old family photos.

It was the winters of the late 70's/80's why im so obsessed with the weather and consider myself lucky to have experienced them especially Dec 81.

When it comes to our recent winters this biggest difference I find compared to our past winters isn't so much the amount of snowfall but the type of snow that is falling. I remember as a child we very often used to make a skidtrack as soon as the snow had stopped falling and because of the sub zero max temps and the type of snow this used to quickly harden and turn to ice. These days our snowfall seems to bit more of the wet variety and I have lost count in recent years how many times I have seen snowfall vanish just hrs after it had fallen.

I know I sometimes make myself look foolish on this forum harping on about E,lys but to me this is where all the great cold spells come from. Ever since I have been a member of this forum I still haven't seen what I would class as a true cold spell synoptically and weather wise and even the Dec 05 doesn't fit this description despite the snowfall and max temps of only -4C. We have had some very close calls as many will know but what I am looking for this winter is some true N blocking to become established because the bonus of this is the cold spell is more likely to be prolonged and whilst the block remains the cold air over the continent can be advected. This is why our winters have been so poor in recent years because apart from those silly N,ly topplers any kind of E,lys have been shortlived due to a lack of decent blocking. The only time we have seen decent winter synoptics has been in late Feb when winter is coming to an end.

So lets hope this winter is finally the one and lets also hope that if the ideal synoptics do arrive they do so in either Dec or early Jan. I would love some of the younger members on this forum to experience a true cold spell because in recent times I have laughed but also felt sorry for those who post about blizzards affecting their location when inactual fact all they are seeing is an inch of snow via a shower!.

Here is a chart for all us oldies.

Edited August 25, 2007 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[jethro]

A man after my own heart TEITS. Proper crispy snow, which sticks around for a week or more instead of a dusting which melts in a few hours.

Damien; I think you need to chill out a bit mate, stop taking things so seriously eh? Everyone comes to the forum for their own reasons, to give and get what they want; that's life. It's not really fair to expect everyone to want the same as yourself and it certainly isn't fair to berate others because they don't work to your agenda.

[Wales123098]

looked outside at my plants today (theyve been waterd ect) and there starting to change couler! and also are the sorounding trees around us i may take photos later (current temp 21.5c on my weather station in my garden)

(a photo back in spring which looked like it was going to be a very warm summer god that was wrong)

[snowmadchrisuk]

I love looking back at some of those classic winters of the 80's and very often have a look at some old family photos.

It was the winters of the late 70's/80's why im so obsessed with the weather and consider myself lucky to have experienced them especially Dec 81.

When it comes to our recent winters this biggest difference I find compared to our past winters isn't so much the amount of snowfall but the type of snow that is falling. I remember as a child we very often used to make a skidtrack as soon as the snow had stopped falling and because of the sub zero max temps and the type of snow this used to quickly harden and turn to ice. These days our snowfall seems to bit more of the wet variety and I have lost count in recent years how many times I have seen snowfall vanish just hrs after it had fallen.

I know I sometimes make myself look foolish on this forum harping on about E,lys but to me this is where all the great cold spells come from. Ever since I have been a member of this forum I still haven't seen what I would class as a true cold spell synoptically and weather wise and even the Dec 05 doesn't fit this description despite the snowfall and max temps of only -4C. We have had some very close calls as many will know but what I am looking for this winter is some true N blocking to become established because the bonus of this is the cold spell is more likely to be prolonged and whilst the block remains the cold air over the continent can be advected. This is why our winters have been so poor in recent years because apart from those silly N,ly topplers any kind of E,lys have been shortlived due to a lack of decent blocking. The only time we have seen decent winter synoptics has been in late Feb when winter is coming to an end.

So lets hope this winter is finally the one and lets also hope that if the ideal synoptics do arrive they do so in either Dec or early Jan. I would love some of the younger members on this forum to experience a true cold spell because in recent times I have laughed but also felt sorry for those who post about blizzards affecting their location when inactual fact all they are seeing is an inch of snow via a shower!.

Here is a chart for all us oldies.

hI TETIS, I often find myself in agreement with you on what we need for a good winter. I'm 27 and can remember some of the 80's winters. I remember a time maybe 86/87 we went to school in the morning it was fine , by dinner time it was white out and by home time we had inches and inches of thick white snow. My dad always use to say about the wet snow from the north and dry snow from the east. Dry snow is obviously more solid so this is what we need for snow to stick around, Snow that comes from the north is almost like the slush we use to get at the end of a cold spell.

I keep reading on here about a weak la nina but on some of the american forums i'm hereing la nina is becoming sronger and now moderate.

I think the cold pooling is comeing on great also this year, far more advanced than last year already. If you look at the end of the current gfs run, there is a blocking high in just the right place if it was november. Anyway thanks for your well thought out posts. and if you know of any long range forecasts it would be great, I seem to have lost all my links.

Cheers

Chris

Edited August 25, 2007 by snowmadchrisuk

[laserguy]

Calm down Damien. The paragraph where I mentioned the 80's was separate to the one where I talked of being a child! To clarify,from my birth in 1965 (which makes me 42 now!) I recall 'proper' winters from the age I was able to do so. Therefore I was 13 in 1978,and 18 in 1983,so at the time of my loft adventures I would have been 15 or 16. What's the problem? And it most certainly was not me who used the word 'scum' in any posting. Time to trawl back through the postings to find the perpetrator of that if it bothers you that much. Do I get an apology? I don't know why you are going out of your way to be disruptive and inflammatory but TBH I really couldn't care less. I know I'm genuine and frankly the only standards and level of integrity I strive to achieve are my own and trust me,they are very high. Whatever yours are don't concern me.

I recall saying I'd get back to you in a year or two's time Osmposm,but two years from now WILL be 2009! Okay it'll not quite be winter in exactly two years from now but let's not split hairs! While I've got your attention Osmposm,I'm sure it was me who you were alluding to when you recently implored that people who wish to 'agree to disagree' be kept away from you in the interests of healthy debate. What I meant,as I'm now sure you realise,is the kind of debate which takes a departure in the vein of Damien's recent non-constructive contributions and leads nowhere except to prompt postings like this. I'm all for a 'heated debate' but there sometimes comes a point when it's obvious that consensus cannot and will not be reached and the whole caboodle fragments into little more than a slanging match and collective head-banging!

[cheeky_monkey]

i dont see the point of deriding somebodies memories if you didnt experience the same time yourself..or by throwing out stats about global temperatures etc..if you were not there yourself dont get on your high horse!...right im off back 2 bed

[Damien]

A man after my own heart TEITS. Proper crispy snow, which sticks around for a week or more instead of a dusting which melts in a few hours.

Damien; I think you need to chill out a bit mate, stop taking things so seriously eh? Everyone comes to the forum for their own reasons, to give and get what they want; that's life. It's not really fair to expect everyone to want the same as yourself and it certainly isn't fair to berate others because they don't work to your agenda.

I thought I was quite chilled. :o

As Steve Murr says - it's all a bit of fun; although weather forecasts can and will be used for serious purposes i.e.: military planning, agricultural planning, etc.. We are after all all weather enthusiasts - just some *see* the weather in different ways than others (and I'm sure everyone will agree that using the word "scum" and "degeneration" to describe the weather is a bit harsh ).

Last night got a little heated - not to mention off-topic - though it's good to see recent posts have righted this wrong - and just as well as the impending updates at the start of next month will bring us new and updated LRFs to mull over.

Wales'guy' - great photos again!

Laserguy - good post and yes I did acknowledge that I was wrong about the "loft" thing. I apologise for that. Likewise I apologise for attacking you for using the word "scum" when you did in fact not use it: I'll try and dig out who did a little later. :o :o :o

[laserguy]

Hello Damien,apology acknowledged and accepted! Now let's please get back on track!?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Blast, if you get time check out the Archibald paper I posted a link to over on the "overhype" thread in the enviro section, I'd be interested in your thoughts.

Off topic, sorry.

Jethro

Will do. I think I know where its heading having scanned it. Yes I am of the same opinion hence my response to SF re throwing in the towel. Will respond later on the other thread.

BFTP

[Stratos Ferric]

W-w-where in God's name has that statement come from? :o :o

No - this is based on CET records or something. Apparently, for instance, the 1940s was the warmest period of the Twentieth Century in the world in general (perhaps not surprising with all that war going on - but I digress and remove my tongue from my cheek) while Britain froze. So it's all relative. But yes the 1980s were cold by apparently meteorological global definitions. And also yet the late 1990s-2000s (present) has been quite a lot warmer again by global standards - this is surely obvious by now. :o :o

Well, according to his post, his father would have had a job lifting him up on his shoulders if he had been older than 14 in 1981.

(... which he should know is a colder than average (and indeed even snowier than average I think by official meteorological definitions) winter and not just that but one of the coldest (in fact the joint with (the surprisingly recent year of) 1995 with -30.somethingºC (I think) being reached for the first ever time within the UK) winters of recent times/the last twenty-five years within one of the coldest (and even to some extents snowiest) periods of the Twentieth Century that Britain had).

Damian, there's some claptrap in there, sorry. If you're going to post facts for an argument - for which credit because it's a step up from a few on here - at least check them first.

How can the 1940s have been the warmest globally when the record was set in 1998 at the end of a period of steady warming?

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/annrep93/trends.gif

As those plots show, the period from the 40s to the 80s was one of dynamic equilibrium, since when warming.

As the following plot based on CET shows, the winters of the 80s were NOT a fluke: they are, though, the last genuinely cold winters: my original point precisely. What we had in the 80s used to be a not unusual occurrence; now they seem like a permanent feature of the past.

You've also obviously never studied history, or the syllabus has changed, because the bitter winters of the mid 1940s were one of the determining factors in halting the Germans' progress eastwards. The 80s had cold winters in the UK, and thehemisphere was cooler than it had been in the 70s, but were not cold globally and not cold at all by standards of the reliable historic record.

Finally, you cannot measure the coldness of a winter by one off temperatures, and the UK record minimum is well shy of -30C. Also, 1995 was not particularly snowy judged by historic norms.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/extremes/index.html

Otherwise, not a bad post...

Yes, that's where I think I got it from. It was something like that but I think it was referring to a certain number of years (with a "0" on) experience in the weather/meteorology. For the record - and I am quite open about this - my interest in meteorology direct goes back to 1997, if not earlier (but with just the general weather, etc.).

Smugness is no substitute in science for robust analysis though. Several of your posts above are rather cursory and careless.

...

But I'm sure you will agree that "the passing of the years and the degeneration of our winters into the current nonsense is tragic" was a silly comment - and I have I believe thoroughly(?) pulled down his comments that he has these "years of experience of/in the weather" when he calls the winters of the 1980s "normal" - not taken into account local or even global factors of why these winters were so. Of course there is the climate science (greenhouse) argument but that's another matter - albeit a very much related one.

(...

You might elaborate on just how you have "pulled down" his comments. I may not agree with the use of "tragic" (tragic is, say, sudden loss of life, or grave misfortune - for all that one or two on here carry on about snow as if it were the be all and all of life, it it still never going to be a tragedy if the day comes when we no longer see snow in lowland in the UK - though the wider effects of the warming that would be implied by such an outcome might be tragic) but his broader point is correct. The UK has never had persistently cold or snowy winters - that is NOT the climatic regime we're in - but the type of winters we used tohave in the 80s were NOT an anomaly; to somebody your age they just seem that way. To someone of my age they were more extreme versions of what used to happen about, say, every 3-4 winters. They were absolutely NOT the strange occurrence you seem to be making them out to be, though you could always try to find some facts to make your case.

...

(Then again Stratos has also just earlier thrown the same argument back at me. As in the discussion with John Holmes about the accuracy of the MetO winter 2005/06 forecast a week (or so) ago, climate models do not back up the theory that the 1980s was a normal (winter) period for Britain and perhaps indeed even also the world. (Come to think maybe the local methods at the time (and remember there was no CFS or weather forums then) would have accounted, by the mid-1980s surely, the current "cold" winters as being the "average" for the time - but given long-term patterns - that we now know and new technology has now revealed (through GFS et al.), it's just not true. Not anymore, anyway.)

...

What on earth do climate models have to do with things that have actually happened? If you're suggesting by that that the current models show warming and therefore the 80s were abnormal you are totally and utterly missing the point. That would be like an astronaut on the space shuttle looking backwards from launch and saying "gosh, the world has suddenly started flying backwards at 10,000mph".

If you want to know whether or not the 80s (or any period) were "normal" you can only compare with what had gone before. That's precisly the reason why, on a different thread, a few of us have been arguing about whether or not 2007 (2003 obviously was NOT) is a turning point. We can't tell yet: what we do know is that it's still going to be, by historic standards, very warm.

[disco-barry]

This winter will be cold at times and dry and wet and sometimes quite warm and there will also be some wind, oh expect clouds too....most of the winter.

[Stratos Ferric]

...And - for one last time and conversely as much - his comments on "the degeneration of our winters into the current nonsense" "don't contribute much" to our discussions here too, right? I believe it was he who mentioned the (current) British winters/weather in general was "scum" or "acting like scum" once. That's a strong word for a sensible, rational weather and climate discussion IMHO. ... insanely illogical arguments... let alone that kind of punctuation! Even Jonathan Powell from WeatherAction (or whatever it is) can punctuate his writing properly! ... and post vacuous arguments in the style of a "ramping newbie", I will continue to, kindly, and the admins can message me or post and correct me on this if they want, treat him as such. As you say, he has to "earn his pennies". :o

Anyhow I hope we've all learnt something tonight! :o Paul or John can feel free to tell me off if they think I'm going "below the belt" as the saying goes, LOL.

If you do nothing else today Damian you might usefully google "Icarus". There's rather more than bit of "pot and kettle" in some of your posts above. And you certainly aren't in a position to go discussing grammar: when I last checked the OED was not replete with mad smilies, which are, IMO, absolutely NO substitute for saying what you're thinking. There used to be a rule of the highway which was don't act on another driver's flash of the lights - it's far too open to different interpretations: ditto smilies.

I think the use of emotive object as applied to an inanimate object is rather different to the use of the same language applied to a person. I may be more forthright than many on here would prefer, but I'm always very careful to check my facts before rebutting an argument put forward by somebody else, and I don't bandy personal remarks around without presenting a reason for doing so.

This winter will be cold at times and dry and wet and sometimes quite warm and there will also be some wind, oh expect clouds too....most of the winter.

:o

Aaah, but there'll be plenty of no here in N-W, lots of near-miss stinkers, cold pooling, spoiled notherlies, froast...whatever happens in practice, you can always rely on a wanter to remember during autumn, and a sustained wonter from November to April.

[osmposm]

What I meant,as I'm now sure you realise,is the kind of debate which takes a departure in the vein of Damien's recent non-constructive contributions and leads nowhere except to prompt postings like this. I'm all for a 'heated debate' but there sometimes comes a point when it's obvious that consensus cannot and will not be reached and the whole caboodle fragments into little more than a slanging match and collective head-banging!

I'm certainly with you in the context of Damien's rude outburst, LaserG - and perhaps in that of some excessive "needling" from other quarters (including most probably mine). But in general I don't think that the impossibility of reaching consensus should preclude the continuation of vigorous debate. As I think I posted elsewhere, the opinions we seek to sway are those of the undecided - and also, in time perhaps, we may chip away at the certainty of an entrenched opponent. That's certainly how I - not infrequently - change my mind. I like to fight my corner resolutely in debate.....but I do a lot of hard thinking afterwards.

[Stratos Ferric]

I'm certainly with you in the context of Damien's rude outburst, LaserG - and perhaps in that of some excessive "needling" from other quarters (including most probably mine). But in general I don't think that the impossibility of reaching consensus should preclude the continuation of vigorous debate. As I think I posted elsewhere, the opinions we seek to sway are those of the undecided - and also, in time perhaps, we may chip away at the certainty of an entrenched opponent. That's certainly how I - not infrequently - change my mind. I like to fight my corner resolutely in debate.....but I do a lot of hard thinking afterwards.

Quite, I forget who it was last week who suggested I should post on a more highbrow forum because I tended to challenge other posters - far and away one of the most depressing posts I've ever seen on here, and that from somebody who reads everything that Osborne, and Stu, write. I challenge only when I disagree with something fundamental, and when I do so I do so with reason and facts to support. It's sad indeed if we can't have vigorous discussion, and sadder still if the purpose of these pages is just to allow everyone to "wish out loud". Like you say, where then the casual observer?

[Damien]

Crikey Stratos you're on fire today mate.

Good post so I'll pick up on some points:

Damian, there's some claptrap in there, sorry. If you're going to post facts for an argument - for which credit because it's a step up from a few on here - at least check them first.

How can the 1940s have been the warmest globally when the record was set in 1998 at the end of a period of steady warming?

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/annrep93/trends.gif

1998 was just the single warmest year on record/ever recorded (that may have changed to date?) because of increased (in fact record here as well) El Niño, solar activity, "global warming", etc.?

I think the 1940s were the joint warmest overall period along with (perhaps(?)) the 1990s.

As those plots show, the period from the 40s to the 80s was one of dynamic equilibrium, since when warming.

(I forgot what I was originally going to right here. I think it was something like:) Excellent point, and the 1980s were very much a part of this period.

As the following plot based on CET shows, the winters of the 80s were NOT a fluke: they are, though, the last genuinely cold winters: my original point precisely. What we had in the 80s used to be a not unusual occurrence; now they seem like a permanent feature of the past.

"The last genuinely cold winters" were still a fluke - because they deviate from the natural maritime North-Western Europe norm. Sure, they are still/were a natural occurrence: as are above normal temperatures and periods from time to time; so thus not a "fluke" in the long run of time - but by overall, natural standards (and certainly greenhouse ones).

You've also obviously never studied history, or the syllabus has changed, because the bitter winters of the mid 1940s were one of the determining factors in halting the Germans' progress eastwards.

The "sylla-what"? The "Germ-whos"?

Nah, just kidding mate. Of course I know about the Eastern advance and how it was halted by the bad weather from Russia (as had equally thwarted Napoleon 100 years earlier). But that was in the wider context of a normal (by Russia standards) cold winter - which do occur, as you rightly said in your previous comment, as part of natural variability and even general warming.

The 80s had cold winters in the UK, and thehemisphere was cooler than it had been in the 70s, but were not cold globally and not cold at all by standards of the reliable historic record.

OK - and I didn't even mention "cold" - per se - I mentioned cool. But nonetheless I hinted at though so the models I may have checked may have been wrong.

Finally, you cannot measure the coldness of a winter by one off temperatures, and the UK record minimum is well shy of -30C. Also, 1995 was not particularly snowy judged by historic norms.

True - but that was just a minor point about my point about the 1980s winters being rather cold and hence (somewhat) "un-natural" (i.e.: un-the maritime British norm) and that they only *seemed* colder given:

a) How cold it actually was at the time.

b ) The sheer "warmth" of the present,

c) It being rather recent history and peoples' memories.

You might elaborate on just how you have "pulled down" his comments. I may not agree with the use of "tragic" (tragic is, say, sudden loss of life, or grave misfortune - for all that one or two on here carry on about snow as if it were the be all and all of life, it it still never going to be a tragedy if the day comes when we no longer see snow in lowland in the UK - though the wider effects of the warming that would be implied by such an outcome might be tragic) but his broader point is correct. The UK has never had persistently cold or snowy winters - that is NOT the climatic regime we're in - but the type of winters we used tohave in the 80s were NOT an anomaly; to somebody your age they just seem that way. To someone of my age they were more extreme versions of what used to happen about, say, every 3-4 winters. They were absolutely NOT the strange occurrence you seem to be making them out to be, though you could always try to find some facts to make your case.

You said it yourself - and I stand by the idea that the 1980s winters in general, while not a "strange occurrence" - sorry if I made it out to be that way - they were certainly, once again, "un-the maritime British norm" given their general colder than average (average on the whole 1979-87) nature and the records that were broken in, as we both rightly say, December 1981, read into these records and figures what we may.

(By the way: "to somebody your age they just seem that way" - better than someone who was not my age, i.e.: younger than me, seeing that as "normal" or "the norm". If it's not misguided (usually younger - no offence but again I mean in the wider of context of acquired knowledge and what we know about the weather, etc.) newbies - it's selective memory. )

What on earth do climate models have to do with things that have actually happened? If you're suggesting by that that the current models show warming and therefore the 80s were abnormal you are totally and utterly missing the point. That would be like an astronaut on the space shuttle looking backwards from launch and saying "gosh, the world has suddenly started flying backwards at 10,000mph".

Not in the context of warming - that's just the wider point. I meant in the general context.

And by the way you mention computer models yourself in this thread - yes, they have been the "harbingers" of doom - us able to predict the future (currently warming? But also Gulf Stream "cooling"(?)) weather but also look back more accurately at past periods like the 1980s (and even 40s!) as well as to the future and make us see where we're going and also what we've done wrong. Hence this was also my point about the 1980s - some of these-type long-range major models did show the 1980s to be a rather "warm" period for the Earth overall (kind of the warmest decade of the 1890s-1940s warmest decades ).

If you want to know whether or not the 80s (or any period) were "normal" you can only compare with what had gone before.

I am doing - using mainly the 1970s, the 1990s, and the whole of the Twentieth Century. The present warming is just a newer, more urgent point that, as I said, adds to the perception above of those 1980s winters being the British "norm".

Anyhow I forgotten how insightful our old discussions were and it's nice to talk with you again.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Lots of arguing on here, and most of it about the past. This thread is about this winter and I really dont think warming in the 40's or not as the case may be has alot to do with the winter of 2007/2008. We all know that a cold winter is harder to get these days as tempratures are rising not just locally but around the world. Global warming is a seperate topic, if avarage tempratures have risen by 1 degree then maybe we won't get -10 this winter maybe we will get -9 instead. Sounds stupid but mathmaticly that is the truth. In the right setup it can get cold if not very cold all you have to do is look at the gfs max min temprature map and you will see some places get sub zero tempratures in august. If cold pooling as it is now is present in august and with the current factors in place it can only get colder as the months go on, and i do not really see any really really warm air that could push our way even if it wanted to . Take the weather channels lately today is classed as really hot or really warm but it is only 22 degrees where I am. Thats the same as a sunny bank holiday in april or may. I think we might have a few warm days this month but only because of the high pressure situation and not because of any spanish plume moving northwards. I see a lot of fog and frost this winter. So get your hats and gloves from the market now why there going cheap.

Chris

[Damien]

If you do nothing else today Damian you might usefully google "Icarus". There's rather more than bit of "pot and kettle" in some of your posts above. And you certainly aren't in a position to go discussing grammar: when I last checked the OED was not replete with mad smilies, which are, IMO, absolutely NO substitute for saying what you're thinking. There used to be a rule of the highway which was don't act on another driver's flash of the lights - it's far too open to different interpretations: ditto smilies.

Thanks for the tip on Icarus I'll look up his paper (and the Archibald one).

I think the use of emotive object as applied to an inanimate object is rather different to the use of the same language applied to a person. I may be more forthright than many on here would prefer, but I'm always very careful to check my facts before rebutting an argument put forward by somebody else, and I don't bandy personal remarks around without presenting a reason for doing so.

To be honest - to the guy who used the word "scum" earlier (NOT laserguy) - to whom my comments were directed: I'm sure you will agree I was entirely right. As for laserguy - he's a good, informative poster who "makes you think" (as you do: which is always a good thing in my book) but posts like "the passing of the years and the degeneration of our winters into the current nonsense is tragic" will prompt a response - even if it's just a rebuttal and a correction - from us rational, respectful enthusiasts like myself and Ian Brown (who both commented on what he wrote).

Aaah, but there'll be plenty of no here in N-W, lots of near-miss stinkers, cold pooling, spoiled notherlies, froast...whatever happens in practice, you can always rely on a wanter to remember during autumn, and a sustained wonter from November to April.

Oh man we both know it's true. May the fun begin.

Anyhow I was hoping for a "quieter" weekend this weekend - but it all started with a post from Wales123098. But it doesn't matter because I at least hope we all learned something this last couple of days and that the facts here will help people and our new members understand the weather when they Google the dreaded and immortal search topic "winter forecasts 2007/08 UK".

Speak to you all soon.

[Damien]

Lots of arguing on here, and most of it about the past. This thread is about this winter and I really dont think warming in the 40's or not as the case may be has alot to do with the winter of 2007/2008. We all know that a cold winter is harder to get these days as tempratures are rising not just locally but around the world. Global warming is a seperate topic, if avarage tempratures have risen by 1 degree then maybe we won't get -10 this winter maybe we will get -9 instead. Sounds stupid but mathmaticly that is the truth. In the right setup it can get cold if not very cold all you have to do is look at the gfs max min temprature map and you will see some places get sub zero tempratures in august. If cold pooling as it is now is present in august and with the current factors in place it can only get colder as the months go on, and i do not really see any really really warm air that could push our way even if it wanted to . Take the weather channels lately today is classed as really hot or really warm but it is only 22 degrees where I am. Thats the same as a sunny bank holiday in april or may. I think we might have a few warm days this month but only because of the high pressure situation and not because of any spanish plume moving northwards. I see a lot of fog and frost this winter. So get your hats and gloves from the market now why there going cheap.

Chris

Good post and with this let's get back on track people!

The weather is about cooling down for winter - and it's time for this thread to cool too.

[david16]

Could it just have been unlucky synpotics that we have generally been continuously on the mild side of low pressure systems (i.e. the south or south eastern or eastern flank of the low pressure systems) for days and weeks on end in the winter months in recent times, with us suffering from these constant ridiculous +ve double figure temperatures, high winds and heavy rain.

But with the high pressure systems in the winter months, the wind can flow from all points on the compass, but then when it slips away, it goes the wrong direction away and reintroduces more mild moist weather lasting ages.

Edited August 25, 2007 by david16

[Damien]

Could it just have been unlucky synpotics that we have generally been continuously on the mild side of low pressure systems (i.e. the south or south eastern or eastern flank of the low pressure systems) for days and weeks on end in the winter months in recent times, with us suffering from these constant ridiculous +ve double figure temperatures, high winds and heavy rain.

Yeah, as any weather man will tell you (I think either Michael Fish or Bill Giles was on the radio recently and they were asked this very question - and gave the very same answer): it's because the winds are blowing from the wrong direction - namely westerly.

Ian Currie's weather forecasts centre heavily around wind direction but have not had much success of late IMHO.

But with the high pressure systems in the winter months, the wind can flow from all points on the compass, but then when it slips away, it goes the wrong direction away and reintroduces more mild moist weather lasting ages.

And the worrying thing was, when it did finally blow from the east in (late) February 2005, only a few lucky areas (admittedly my own included) got the magical white stuff. So worrying times indeed - basically we *really* need to try this easterly theory out again, as 2005/06 delivered squat to my area in spite of/except for low temperatures and clear, dry days on end.

[laserguy]

Phew! Just got back from a trip out with my boy and it seems I can remove the crash helmet and body armour I'd donned in anticipation of the flak I was expecting here. Still,a good row clears the air. I can barely believe Damien referred to me as a 'good, informative' poster after yesterday's outburst,but that made my day. No,really it has. As a relative newbie on here I have come to learn that certain individuals (hmm,wonder who they could be...?)are ready to pounce on any word,and that is a GOOD THING. It can be somewhat disconcerting to say the least,if you're not expecting it. Poor Wales123098 must have wondered what the hell he'd said wrong. Hang on in there Wales,you'll get used to it and learn to give as good as you get. Your contributions are as valid and as worthy as the old stalwarts!

I hear what you're saying Osmposm and you are of course absolutely right so long as the debate doesn't get out of hand and result in a slanging match. Otherwise jolly good and frequently highly educational fun!

Anyway,gonna take the missus off on the motorbike tomorrow,probably the last chance before this freaky summer slips into history and another samey winter takes over. The real thing comes in two years. Oops,what have I started now!?

[Damien]

Phew! Just got back from a trip out with my boy and it seems I can remove the crash helmet and body armour I'd donned in anticipation of the flak I was expecting here. Still,a good row clears the air. I can barely believe Damien referred to me as a 'good, informative' poster after yesterday's outburst,but that made my day. No,really it has. As a relative newbie on here I have come to learn that certain individuals (hmm,wonder who they could be...?)are ready to pounce on any word,and that is a GOOD THING. It can be somewhat disconcerting to say the least,if you're not expecting it. Poor Wales123098 must have wondered what the hell he'd said wrong. Hang on in there Wales,you'll get used to it and learn to give as good as you get. Your contributions are as valid and as worthy as the old stalwarts!

I hear what you're saying Osmposm and you are of course absolutely right so long as the debate doesn't get out of hand and result in a slanging match. Otherwise jolly good and frequently highly educational fun!

Anyway,gonna take the missus off on the motorbike tomorrow,probably the last chance before this freaky summer slips into history and another samey winter takes over. The real thing comes in two years. Oops,what have I started now!?

Hi laserguy,

Just quickly - I now refer to you as a "good, informative poster" because it turned out that you did not write the comments I incorrectly asserted you did earlier - and hence duly apologised for this. Your "the passing of the years and the degeneration of our winters into the current nonsense is tragic" "outburst" (dare I say ) was little similar to mine - a moment of madness in an otherwise sensible discussion that I have both enjoyed (and partially regretted, *ahem*).

I like posting here and the discussions here and would hate to think what I'm doing is somehow "turning people away", so I apologise if things got a little "hot under the collar" with us all earlier and feel it's time to turn the heat down in this thread, so to speak.

(A very apt thing to do as well as winter approaches. )

Poor Wales123098 must have wondered what the hell he'd said wrong. Hang on in there Wales,you'll get used to it and learn to give as good as you get. Your contributions are as valid and as worthy as the old stalwarts!

Wales said nothing wrong - I just came in and corrected him on his incorrect assertions on how he had read and his misunderstanding of the earlier commentary and chart (namely the November ECPC August run offering) in this thread. I have also apologised if I was a little "direct" in the way I had spoken - and nor did I realise he was talking to me (partly) at the time - although that's another reason why I would to correct somebody as so: I don't or wouldn't want somebody new - who was only starting to learn about the weather - something we all I'm sure encourage on NetWeather - misinterpreting and misunderstanding the charts and commentary I had posted in the way that he (and others like him, perhaps(?)) had done - namely taking it as "gospel" and "granted". It will save him (and again others like him) a little bit of "heartache" later down the line, I'm sure you will either agree or find out.

Good luck on your motorbike trip and your winter 2009/10 "forecast", LOL.

[Damien]

jeez wat a bore!!...bet u know how to empty a pub or break up a party!!

New LRFs in a week my friend so just wait we will (hopefully) have a new thread by then.

ECPC's February is what I'm most looking forward too although the next Met Office runs will be crucial IMHO.