METO UK Further Outlook

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 25 Mar 2008 to Thursday 3 Apr 2008:

A brisk northerly wind will continue to bring cold conditions early next week with a mixture of sunny spells and some showers and overnight frosts. Those showers will be wintry to low levels, falling as snow over high ground, and will be most frequent across northern and eastern parts of Britain where gales are also likely. The driest, sunniest conditions are expected in the south and west, and conditions should ease generally on Wednesday. For the remainder of the outlook period, the weather is expected to continue unsettled with scattered showers or longer periods of rain and it will become windier in most areas. The best of any drier weather will be in the southeast. Daytime temperatures will rise to just below normal, colder at times in the northeast.

Updated: 1155 on Thu 20 Mar 2008

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[johnholmes]

that outlook to 3 April suggests that they are leaning more to the current GFS idea at that time range than ECMWF; beyond T+240 there is only GFS that wee see other than the NOAA comments, this would give rather cold or about average day time temps for the UK.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 26 Mar 2008 to Friday 4 Apr 2008:

A cold start to this period with northerly winds and showers of rain, sleet or snow and with the risk of some substantial snow on the higher ground. Some brighter and drier spells by day and overnight frost in places. Continuing rather cold through the week-end, southern parts are expected to be mostly cloudy with some rain likely at times and perhaps some hill snow. Northern areas, especially the northwest should be drier but still with a scattering of showers and with the greatest risk of overnight frosts. There is some uncertainty over conditions into the following week but it looks as if temperatures should continue to near or below the seasonal average and with the continuing risk of showers or longer spells of rain.

Updated: 1158 on Fri 21 Mar 2008

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Thursday 27 Mar 2008 to Saturday 5 Apr 2008:

Thursday should see bright or sunny spells across many parts of the UK, but southeast England could be rather cloudy with rain, and scattered wintry showers are expected over parts of the north and east. During Friday and through next weekend unsettled conditions will spread across much of the country with showers or longer spells of rain, and the risk of some sleet and snow over higher parts of northern Britain. It could also be very windy for a time with a risk of gales or even severe gales. Into the following week, the first part of April, there is a good deal of uncertainty but the likely scenario is that westerly winds will prevail across the country, bringing some rain or showers, with temperatures close to the early-April average.

Updated: 1230 on Sat 22 Mar 2008

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 28 Mar 2008 to Sunday 6 Apr 2008:

During Friday and through the weekend we are likely to see rather unsettled, but less cold conditions than we have seen of late. Rain is likely, and this will be heavy in places, with some blustery showers and strong winds following. By the end of the weekend and in to the following week, high pressure looks set to build close to or to the north of the United Kingdom, bringing the promise of some slightly more settled conditions for the start of April. Temperatures are likely to be close to or even a little above normal by day, particularly in the south - though some frost by night is possible, mainly in the north. Quite a stiff easterly breeze may develop in the south later though.

Updated: 1157 on Sun 23 Mar 2008

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 29 Mar 2008 to Monday 7 Apr 2008:

Through the weekend we are likely to have rather unsettled, but less cold, conditions than we have seen of late. Rain is likely, and this will be heavy in places, with some blustery showers and strong winds following, mainly in the north and west. Early next week rather more settled conditions look set to develop across much of the United Kingdom, bringing the promise of rather more in the way of spring sunshine for early April. Temperatures are likely to be close to or even a little above normal by day, particularly in the south, though some frost by night is possible, mainly in the north. Quite a stiff easterly breeze may develop in the south later though.

Updated: 1152 on Mon 24 Mar 2008

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[johnholmes]

that is 2 days now they have gone for a high to give the eaterly winds

interesting as well in view of the changeability of GFS at that range over the past week. I, once again, wonder what model they are using?

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Sunday 30 Mar 2008 to Tuesday 8 Apr 2008:

Through the latter part of the weekend we are likely to keep rather unsettled conditions. Rain is expected in many areas, and this will be heavy in places, with some blustery showers and strong winds following, mainly in the north and west. During the first part of next week rather more settled conditions look set to develop across much of the United Kingdom, bringing the promise of rather more in the way of spring sunshine for the first week of April. Temperatures are likely to be close to or even a little above normal by day, particularly in the west, though some frost by night is possible. Quite a stiff easterly breeze may develop in the south though.

Updated: 1135 on Tue 25 Mar 2008

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[johnholmes]

now gone 3 days with an almost(yes not quite) identical outlook at the end

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I'm guessing the later part might have more of a human input, as it seems quite consistant.

Perhaps it might be worth finding out?

[johnholmes]

it is a human input but I'm not sure which model(s) they use that far out. Their own does not go out that far, this is the reply I got from my high level contact some time ago

The 6-15 day UK outlook is a Public Weather Service funded output - written by the Medium Range Forecaster using ECMWF and Met Office MOGREPS ensemble output (nothing too clever there really).

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Interesting. Cheers John. I guess we might have to wait and see what the next few updates will be like.

Have to admit though...never heard of that last model before.

Do you think they would give all their tricks of the trade away though? Perhaps not tell us everything that have access too?

[johnholmes]

I get to know most of what goes on but if its sensitive then I'm sworn to keeping it that way.

Nothing in what I've quoted fits that, although there is rather more about Ensemble work which is.

Essentially though the answer I've quoted gives what they normally use. The senior man obviously has access to every model around the world and all the techinical discussions which go with the National Met Services, far more than we ever get to see. There is a fair amount I'm told with NOAA that does not get out on the web.

and before the inevitable question about MOGREPS here is the link!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/inter...ayensemble.html

Edited March 25, 2008 by johnholmes

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Cheers John.

Probably as I thought, which I think is the way it should be really.

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 31 Mar 2008 to Wednesday 9 Apr 2008:

Wet and windy weather is expected across the whole of the UK next Monday, but temperatures should be around normal. Some heavy spells of rain are possible, although it should turn more showery across more western parts later on. Next Tuesday is then likely to be a rather cold day with blustery showers and some sunny spells. During the middle of next week, conditions should gradually become more settled with plenty of dry weather and sunny spells likely as high pressure moves across from the west. However, cool, showery conditions may persist over exposed northern and eastern areas as a north or northeasterly wind develops. Similar conditions may then continue into the following week too. Temperatures will be around average, so feeling pleasant in any sunshine, with mostly light winds.

Updated: 1143 on Wed 26 Mar 2008

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Friday 4 Apr 2008 to Sunday 13 Apr 2008:

Friday should be another largely dry and mild day over much of the southern half of the United Kingdom, however, in the north outbreaks of rain and strong winds will be spreading in during the day. This wet weather will then clear south across all parts over the weekend followed by much colder northerly winds bringing some sunny spells, but also some showers, which are likely to be wintry at times over northern hills. This rather cold and unsettled weather then looks set to last for the rest of the period, with rain on most days, and temperatures generally a little below average, however it could turn less cold and wet in the south later.

Updated: 1141 on Sun 30 Mar 2008

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Saturday 5 Apr 2008 to Monday 14 Apr 2008:

There will be a change in the weather by the coming weekend with the relatively mild weather having given way to northerly winds by early on Saturday. A weather front will clear southern parts in the early hours of Saturday, and will be followed by these much colder northerly winds bringing some sunny spells, but also some showers, which are likely to be wintry at times especially, though not exclusively, over northern hills. This rather cold and unsettled weather then looks set to last for much of the rest of the period, with rain or showers on most days, and temperatures generally a little below average, however it could turn less cold and wet later in the forecast period.

Updated: 1204 on Mon 31 Mar 2008

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 7 Apr 2008 to Wednesday 16 Apr 2008:

Cold northerly winds look set to bring a mixture of sunshine and wintry showers from Monday onwards. Over low ground, showers should mainly be of rain, hail or sleet, but over hills, snow is more likely. Some significant snowfall is possible on Monday over Scottish mountains and perhaps the Pennines and Welsh Mountains with drifting in the strong winds. The weather looks like remaining rather cold well into next week, though showers should become more confined to northern and eastern areas. Clear skies by night are likely to allow for some quite sharp frosts. Later in the period, there are indications of the weather becoming somewhat warmer as winds turn more easterly or southerly, but it is expected to remain unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain.

Updated: 1116 on Wed 2 Apr 2008

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 8 Apr 2008 to Thursday 17 Apr 2008:

Cold showery weather looks set to continue for much of next week though with some sunshine in-between the showers. Over low ground, showers should mainly be of rain, hail or sleet, but over hills, snow is more likely. Some significant snowfall is possible at times over the Scottish mountains with some accumulations of snow also likely over the Pennines and Welsh mountains. Clear skies by night are likely to allow for some quite sharp frosts. Later in the period, there are indications of the weather becoming rather less cold especially over southern and western parts though warm conditions seem unlikely. However it is expected to remain unsettled with further showers and some longer spells of rain.

Updated: 1208 on Thu 3 Apr 2008

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

Cold showery weather looks set to continue for the remainder of next week though with some sunshine in-between the showers. Over low ground, showers should mainly be of rain, hail or sleet at first, with snow generally confined the higher hills and mountains where some significant snowfall is possible at times during Thursday and Friday, particularly in the north. At low levels, showers will gradually become less wintry later. Where skies become clear and the winds fall light at night locally quite sharp frosts are likely. The unsettled showery conditions are expected to continue through the weekend and into next week though southern areas are likely to see more sunshine and fewer showers at least over the weekend. Becoming less cold with temperatures slowly recovering to near normal.

Updated: 1145 on Sat 5 Apr 2008

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Monday 14 Apr 2008 to Wednesday 23 Apr 2008:

Unsettled conditions are expected to continue well into next week. There should be occasional clear or sunny intervals but also rather large cloud amounts at times. There will be showers or longer spells of rain too, locally heavy and prolonged, perhaps with local hail and thunder, but any sleet or snow should be mainly confined to the mountains of Scotland. Temperatures are expected to be around or just below normal generally, but with overnight frost in places where cloud breaks overnight and winds fall light. During next weekend, and into the following week, further unsettled weather is expected with rain or showers, though some drier interludes are possible, especially for the north and west. Temperatures are likely to remain near or rather below normal.

Updated: 1125 on Wed 9 Apr 2008

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[johnholmes]

yes it seems they are now taking the view that cold rather than mild air going to be over the country for most of the time through the extended forecast period out to 23 April.

Its after this time when there are signs of a possible change to a milder regime but, as GP, my lrf and others have commented, its not yet clear what form this will take as we go into the final month of spring=May!

Edited April 9, 2008 by johnholmes

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 Apr 2008 to Thursday 24 Apr 2008:

Unsettled conditions are expected to continue through much of this outlook period. There should be occasional clear or sunny intervals but also rather large cloud amounts at times. There will be showers or longer spells of rain too, locally heavy and prolonged, perhaps with hail and thunder, especially by day across England and Wales, but any sleet or snow should be mainly confined to the mountains of Scotland. Temperatures are expected to be around or just below normal generally, but with overnight frost in places where cloud breaks and winds fall light. During next weekend, and into the following week confidence is increasing for drier, more settled conditions across the north and west of Scotland. Temperatures are likely to remain near or rather below normal.

Updated: 1112 on Thu 10 Apr 2008

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[Stuart]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 16 Apr 2008 to Friday 25 Apr 2008:

Some dry, sunny spells are expected mid-week especially over central and eastern areas, however cloud and rain may well spread into western parts of the UK from the southwest, along with some strong winds. By next Friday, conditions will be unsettled across all parts with showers or spells of rain continuing into next weekend. The best of any dry, sunny intervals are most likely over Scotland with the most persistent rain probably over south, especially southwest England, along with some strong winds. The following week looks likely to be fairly unsettled too, with the driest conditions in the southeast. Rather cold initially, but temperatures should rise to around normal during the second half of next week, perhaps to a little above normal during the following week.

Updated: 1153 on Fri 11 Apr 2008

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

[azores92]

UK Outlook for Wednesday 16 Apr 2008 to Friday 25 Apr 2008:

Some dry, sunny spells are expected mid-week especially over central and eastern areas, however cloud and rain may well spread into western parts of the UK from the southwest, along with some strong winds. By next Friday, conditions will be unsettled across all parts with showers or spells of rain continuing into next weekend. The best of any dry, sunny intervals are most likely over Scotland with the most persistent rain probably over south, especially southwest England, along with some strong winds. The following week looks likely to be fairly unsettled too, with the driest conditions in the southeast. Rather cold initially, but temperatures should rise to around normal during the second half of next week, perhaps to a little above normal during the following week.

Updated: 1153 on Fri 11 Apr 2008

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_...st_weather.html

i think this is going to cause an above average april in terms of precipitation.