Snow on the way? April 5th onwards cold snap

[Thundersquall]

If the shower hits you head on it will be very heavy, there was very heavy snow/sleet just west of here but hardly anything fell here.

Have you go access to Netweather Extra 5-minute radar?

If you key in any Bristol postcode and see how this shower area is moving, you can see it's

touch and go as to whether it moves over Bristol.

The chances are it will hit Bristol head on because if you extrapolate the direct southwards

movement, Bristol lies in this shower's path.

Anyway, I don't mind if it misses me, it's just enjoyable to watch as it moves relentlessly towards me on the radar!

Whoa, I just clicked a button on the Netweather radar image and the blue for rainfall has just turned to pink for snow!

2000 it was rain, 2005 it's now all snow! There's a large area of snow approaching Bristol from the north.

I reckon I have 1.5 to 2 hours to wait. Let's say it reaches Bristol around 22:00 pm.

Edited April 5, 2008 by Thundersquall

[fazzafarrand]

west yorks been very clear for the last hour

cloud has now appeared from the north

lets see

lets hope

Edited April 5, 2008 by fazzafarrand

[textmum]

I think that was rain in Gloucester, thats what it looked like when we were watching the rugby.

[Thundersquall]

7andY - this presumably snow shower (as it's pink on the Netweather Extra radar Precipitiaion Type)

is due to reach you in I'd say the next half an hour.

It would be useful to have some reports from other posters as well of what's falling from this in

locations to the north of Bristol so I have some idea of what to expect by 22:00 pm.

I think that was rain in Gloucester, thats what it looked like when we were watching the rugby.

It was blue meaning rain as it moved over Gloucetser, now it's turned to pink meaning snow and is now just east of Bristol.

How accurate is the 5-minute radar? Does pink necessarily mean snow is falling? Because if it does, then I reckon Bristol

could well be in for quite some snow before midnight!

Edited April 5, 2008 by Thundersquall

[Geordiesnow]

Had a dusting on the grass and parts of the roofs of hail from that hail/snow shower. Its also a good sign there was snowflakes mixed as i know the air temp and upper air temps are colder now.

[Whether Idle]

Thursday / Friday we're having maxima of 16 to 18 C, now 24 to 36 hours later we're talking about the best snow event of the winter!

Madness! :lol:

Fairly typical April weather, infact

[Louise]

If the shower hits you head on it will be very heavy, there was very heavy snow/sleet just west of here but hardly anything fell here.

Hmm it fell as rain as it passed here and probably continued as rain as it moved south...

[Northernlights]

Now -0.5c with a fresh NW wind dusting of snow now lying with plenty of snow showers to the north so anything we get overnight will settle Cloud tops turning pink in the setting sun a stunning winter sunset. North Sea temperatures must be low enough to allow the cold air to reach us. To me this is how it used to be in April with lots of north and east winds and winter hanging on. Proper spring rarely arrived before the end of April or begining of May when the first swallows flew in on the first 16c+ day with a south wind helping them get here.

[kold weather]

The system that moves south is only a trough so it will be a little patchy right now. The models are showing however some strengthening will occur as it heads SSE and indeed the fax charts shows a weak wave develops along the trough suggesting some decent forcing will take place and therefore a strengthening should occur as it heads down.

Also this is looking far less marginal than anything over easter for areas south of say N.Midlands. Dew points look low enough widely for settling after midnight temps should be low ahead of the torugh with clear skies and dropping temps so should see widespread snow, I think whilst the trough may not be uber strong this is a banker for most past 11pm tonight IMO.

As for Sundays band, looks like being a little more marginal BUT the models are in fact moving in the right direction and making it a little less marginal. The fact these features are troughs has really helped us out with reagrds to lack of warm sector.

[toonarmy32]

its gone very cold all a sudden here just put the heating on ( havent had to have it on for the past few days ) ..but i must say its very quiet on here tonight with the upcomming snow

Edited April 5, 2008 by toonarmy32

[Thundersquall]

Assuming that's snow approaching Bristol from the north, a small part of the Precipitation Type intensity

is between 4 and 8 mm/hour!

Wow, that's 4 and 8 cms snow/hour if it all settled.

Edited April 5, 2008 by Thundersquall

[phil47uk]

ye hope it intensifies as it travels south, how much have you got?

I bloody well hope it doesn't. I'm going to the cinema with the wife tonight. Well, I suppose the consolation is that as we are only a few miles from the south coast here in west Dorset, we'll be the last to know about it.

At the moment it's as dry as a bone down here.. Daffs and bluebells in the hedgerows.. Let's hope it stays like that.

Edited April 5, 2008 by phil47uk

[echobase]

Currently 4.4 c in Melton and whispy cloud......

[maidstone weather]

BBC suggesting that it wont start until after daylight here (9/10am) but it could last most of the day (3/4pm)

[SP1986]

It has yet to prove its worth here, currently cloudy with persistent light drizzle

[I remember Atlantic 252]

its gone very cold all a sudden here just put the heating on ( havent had to have it on for the past few days ) ..but i must say its very quiet on here tonight with the upcomming snow

does seem quiet quieter than easter weekend same time of the week as well! i think by tomorrow it will be busier although its a shame when users are removed from bottom of screen when very busy

[kold weather]

By the way I would watch just in case that precip tonight ends up further east, I remember an exact saame sort of set-up in Jan 2007 and snowfall progged over the west ended up tracking SSE into CS England and the London region instead. I don't think it'll happen like that this time but its worth watching.

Interesting that what I said earlier has actually happened on the UKMO models, if you have seen the latest BBC forecasts its shifted the core of the precip east compared to where it was progged this morning. I believe we will see quite a few reports of settling tonight, nothing too heavy, probs only 1-2cms generally but I suspect quite a few places wil get there further south.

[Thundersquall]

Prob not meant to do this, but this chart from the 5-minute radar is what's getting me so excited about the prospect of snow!

Extrapolate the movement of this cluster of showers directly southwards and Bristol is clearly in the path!

Edited April 5, 2008 by Thundersquall

[kold weather]

BBC suggesting that it wont start until after daylight here (9/10am) but it could last most of the day (3/4pm)

The big difference between this and the easter set-up is there is no warm sector as its a trough. May mean precip is a little weaker and patchy but it will mean that it could snow even in during the afternoon hours as the trough is marking the coldest air, in other words the trough will only be dragging in colder air behind it, it may become too warm for it to settle by the afternoon but dew points suggest it will stay as snow the whole way through.

[Cookie]

snow showers on and off all day here, aint sticking though to windy so be blown through to quickly and we get sunny spells.

[SMU]

The system that moves south is only a trough so it will be a little patchy right now. The models are showing however some strengthening will occur as it heads SSE and indeed the fax charts shows a weak wave develops along the trough suggesting some decent forcing will take place and therefore a strengthening should occur as it heads down.

Also this is looking far less marginal than anything over easter for areas south of say N.Midlands. Dew points look low enough widely for settling after midnight temps should be low ahead of the torugh with clear skies and dropping temps so should see widespread snow, I think whilst the trough may not be uber strong this is a banker for most past 11pm tonight IMO.

As for Sundays band, looks like being a little more marginal BUT the models are in fact moving in the right direction and making it a little less marginal. The fact these features are troughs has really helped us out with reagrds to lack of warm sector.

I think your being over optimistic Kold-

The milder dewpoints ( > oc) will hang on till around midnight for the South of the UK, which means the rate of Cooling wont be great- Sure the temps will drop, but I would put a bet on London Central at midnight still be around 6C, 4c in Suburbs & then surrounding Counties at around 2C-

The Coldest air is behind that trough, So unless there is some dynamic evaporational cooling & or some decent PPN rates then I would urge people to expect nothing-

The Easter event was a lot better, the Cold air was already embedded, a full nights cooling & very Heavy PPN-

Lets see how the radar pans out over the next 4-6 hours- its will then give us a clearer picture-

S

Edited April 5, 2008 by Steve Murr

[london-snow]

Interesting that what I said earlier has actually happened on the UKMO models, if you have seen the latest BBC forecasts its shifted the core of the precip east compared to where it was progged this morning. I believe we will see quite a few reports of settling tonight, nothing too heavy, probs only 1-2cms generally but I suspect quite a few places wil get there further south.

Agree on that cold it looks like being 2cms mostley everywhere in the south but may be a bit more in those lucky locations personally im punting 3-5cms and i have won a guess as i backed comply or die at the grand national and won meself 300 quid

Edited April 5, 2008 by london-snow

[Thundersquall]

Actually, I'm wondering if the Netweather 5-minute radar is on the blink, as the boundary between rain and snow

to the south of Bristol doesn't move and there seems to be an imaginary 'box' as though the data is incorrect.

Still, it would be interesting to hear from anyone under this shower as to whether it is actually snowing.

[kold weather]

True Steve but we only need temps of about 1C and by the time the cold reaches areas further south I'd have thought we'd be around that mark...in regards to the easter event we always had a large problem with dew points rising towards the back end of the system, esp down the south and on a personal point of veiw thats why no snow really settled, I'd feel far more comfortable this time around with the colder air digging in behind. Temps won't rise as the cloud cover arrives simply because dew points and 850hpa profiles are dropping.

Besides from what I've seen looks like the colder dew points are running a little ahead of the front, esp on the eastern side though granted it is a little more marginal on the western side but this looks good to me...reminds me ALOT of Jan 2007 and that area that gave snow to CS England and the SE regions.

To be honest the easter event was probably better for northern areas then this but this will easily be better for most southern areas IMO.

Edited April 5, 2008 by kold weather

[toonarmy32]

Actually, I'm wondering if the Netweather 5-minute radar is on the blink, as the boundary between rain and snow

to the south of Bristol doesn't move and there seems to be an imaginary 'box' as though the data is incorrect.

Still, it would be interesting to hear from anyone under this shower as to whether it is actually snowing.

well its clear here at the moment