Storm/convective Discussion

[Kookylou]

Thanks, one can hope

definitely hoping!!!!!

[Jane Louise]

Most definitely looking good for most of us next weekend onwards I guess we will be hearing more from our excellent Netweather storm forecasters nearer the time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/rep...mp;DAY=20090622

[Jane Louise]

Oh !!my storm risk is looking even better for this week and the weekend

I even have 51% for tommorow.

Looks like it could be a good week/weekend for some.

[Marcus_surfer]

Oh !!my storm risk is looking even better for this week and the weekend

I even have 51% for tommorow.

Looks like it could be a good week/weekend for some.

Lets hope soo

[jo200199]

What's going on? My storm chance keeps increasing for the week dododododo

[Jane Louise]

Does look good on a chart but try not to get your hopes up. There are so many ways it could go wrong, whether it be the likely downgrade or a storm not hitting your particular location.

Still, it does suggest further that there may bea thundery breakdown come the weekend.

I will try not to get my hopes up .I must keep busy lol. I can't wait to try out my internet storm chasing gadget up on the hill ( Bit dangerous I know lol) but at least I will be able to follow any storms on the road lol

What's going on? My storm chance keeps increasing for the week dododododo

Good luck. You never know!!

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

Looking a few day ahead to Fri or thereabouts looking exceptional around SE towards the midlands if current forecasts hold atleast somewhat. Temps including humidity factor at over 30C, lots of convectional rain and CAPE more towards 2,000 in places for a time..

Still wayy to early to tell eh!

[SteveB]

Well I am upto 76% chance of storms on friday. But then again I have a 51% chance of storms today. All in all it looks like I will be coming out of the NSC by the end of the week.

Yeah right .

[Jane Louise]

Now now,

let's try and be optimistic on this one certainly looks promising.

[Coast]

Don't blink, long range 'guesstimate' :

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[Coast]

Yep, the Sussex/Kent storm shield/force-field looks like its will be switched on at 18.00 hrs Friday!

[Neilsouth]

Yep, the Sussex/West Kent storm shield/force-field looks like its will be switched on at 18.00 hrs Friday!

Fixed

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Having posted that chart, the same time on the previous run showed a lot less CAPE/higher LI:

Still 100+ hours out!

[dave48]

Nice to have some good charts to look at again.

Indeed, looks like a good chance of thundery breakdown later in the week as has already been noted by many.

For the third time this year potentially huge CAPE values for the UK of 1000 +, we saw what that could do on the 15th, but widespread values of 500 + shows some great potential all round.

Unfortunately looking at the current GFS anyway the jet stream is no where near the UK so upper level winds remain fairly weak and consequently deep layer shear is poor through out the potential thundery period, hopefully that will change. At this early stage severe potential looks isolated at best.

[dogs32]

MORE RAMP

Thunderstorms later

Heavy showers and thunderstorms break out after a fine start to the week

High pressure is going to be affecting the country during the first part of the forecast bringing some warm summertime conditions. However, as often happens in the British Isles this warm and fine weather is going to be breaking down into thunderstorms, some of them torrential. At this stage I think most will be through

southern and western parts of the country.

Edited June 22, 2009 by dogs32

[dave48]

Some light showers breaking out now over central and southern Wales, ESTOFEX?

[Neilsouth]

At this time i just want to see more sun , damn it!. I want to be more tanned lol

[dogs32]

Some light showers breaking out now over central and southern Wales, ESTOFEX?

strange really I found another web site saying sort of the same thing about today being a slight threat...

I thought everything might kick off towards the end of the week

[dave48]

strange really I found another web site saying sort of the same thing about today being a slight threat...

I thought everything might kick off towards the end of the week

Tony Gilbert has put a forecast up for a slight risk on UKww and he makes some good points and is correct in noting the very slight risk.

What is strange is ESTOFEX now giving us the yellow line for the 15th, but they have for today, when the chance is much more marginal and any activity will be significantly more isolated and localised.

[Stuart]

i dont think i see any here at the end of the week

[karyo]

A couple of sharp showers have developed in northern England. Not that far from Manchester.

As for the weekend, I bed there will be plenty of thunderstorms around, as I will be in Germany!

Karyo

[Costa Del Fal]

It feels so humid and close today. It seems ripe for thunderstorms! Very oppressive!

[twister2005]

hi all, just trying to rain here in bishops cleeve, it is really humid and close, cant wait for these thunderstorms, fingers crossed

[neil_b]

Just chatting to my wife at home in Bridgnorth and she reports distant thunder, from her description it sounds as though its to the Wolverhampton direction.

I'm in Cardiff and there's nothing interesting going on here.