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Storm/convective Discussion

Nick F

By Nick F
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Kain Contributor

Kain

Posted
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16
Posted

Well if those what I marked on the image carry on exploding looks like something could get to us eventually.

post-3685-1246012099_thumb.png

Cell over Glos looks pretty mean too.

Kain

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)
I'm looking at the Sat, and the cloud looks like it may well persist throughout early afternoon, so if this is the case, no one in the Midlands will be seeing any storms today.

dont give up..all the warnings still have us in there sites........look at yesterday how quickly things exploded in Devon

See what the afternoon brings.might be some surprises

the hook down South might ignite later

Edited by dogs32
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

The headaches started, about an hour away I reckon!

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conor_27 Newbie

conor_27

Posted
  • Location: burton upon trent
  • Location: burton upon trent
Posted
I reckon there's a nice surprise late in the day (18z) for NW Midlands, myself, but, then, there you go - we will know soon enough :)

sunny in burton on trent right now : ) cloud has lifted about 15 mins ago

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davehsug Veteran

davehsug

Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
Posted
I reckon there's a nice surprise late in the day (18z) for NW Midlands, myself, but, then, there you go - we will know soon enough :)

Hope you're right VP. Low cloud gone from here now & it's quite bright with some sun. Quite a lot of high cloud & no real convection at the mo.

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anvilhead Newbie

anvilhead

Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Location: Cirencester
Posted

as Bren mentioned in another thread (or was it this one? - i cant remember now) - the actions moving round that convergence line, from north london westwards - looks like it'll miss me here in brentford, even the storms entering kent look like they'll swing round this line, or notrh of it - its all throwing out lotflow across areas due west so i hope it doesnt scupper our chances of storms in the south later today ...

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted
Looks like it, we always do though!

:) Its only 11.30, we have a whole 12 hours ahead of potential and you're throwing in the towel??????

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YokTok Newbie

YokTok

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
:) Its only 11.30, we have a whole 12 hours ahead of potential and you're throwing in the towel??????

Too right :) , Had enough this year, If i see a storm today I'll eat my hat :)

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted
Hope you're right VP. Low cloud gone from here now & it's quite bright with some sun. Quite a lot of high cloud & no real convection at the mo.

In the West (and North) Midlands, keep an eye on XCWeather for stations near your location. If Td (dewpoints) get above 15C and the temperature hits 20C, then I think it's going to happen for you. Because of the marginal LI (like that for most of risk areas, actually) surface heating is what's going to do it much later with the trough, of course, weakening throughout the day. Here's your skew-t for 18z, tonight ...

post-5986-1246012626_thumb.jpg

Massive clouds, potential for loaded gun (thanks PS!), CAPE in excess of 1,000 j/Kg, good K, reasonable TT, some shear near the surface, and low cloud bases. Not too bad at all in my opinion for that neck of the woods. I expect the really cool stuff for most people to be late afternoon.

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted
Too right :) , Had enough this year, If i see a storm today I'll eat my hat :)

Best buy a couple of spare hats, then - rain radar shows a big clump of precipitation heading your way. Arriving, say, 4pm?

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nanu Enthusiast

nanu

Posted
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
  • Location: SE,London (Catford)
Posted
Too right :) , Had enough this year, If i see a storm today I'll eat my hat :)

il hold you to that :) towers going up round me now.. some big ones south of me

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SalopWatcher Enthusiast

SalopWatcher

Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow, Floods...
  • Location: Shrewsbury
Posted
In the West (and North) Midlands, keep an eye on XCWeather for stations near your location. If Td (dewpoints) get above 15C and the temperature hits 20C, then I think it's going to happen for you. Because of the marginal LI (like that for most of risk areas, actually) surface heating is what's going to do it much later with the trough, of course, weakening throughout the day. Here's your skew-t for 18z, tonight ...

post-5986-1246012626_thumb.jpg

Massive clouds, potential for loaded gun (thanks PS!), CAPE in excess of 1,000 j/Kg, good K, reasonable TT, some shear near the surface, and low cloud bases. Not too bad at all in my opinion for that neck of the woods. I expect the really cool stuff for most people to be late afternoon.

Im in NorthWest Mids and Shawbury is reporting temps already of 20 degrees, and dew points down at 10. Intresting.

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Going black here , i can make out the anvils... You get the odd rumble aswell.

Looking good :)

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YokTok Newbie

YokTok

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
Best buy a couple of spare hats, then - rain radar shows a big clump of precipitation heading your way. Arriving, say, 4pm?

I am not kidding, if something happens you'll have a picture of me eating a Nike Hat complete with Tomato Sauce & maybe some salad.

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

London risk time now moves into the 12z-18z timeframe, with the better conditions, well, about now. Very slight downgrade from the 00z

post-5986-1246013050_thumb.jpg

Going black here , i can make out the anvils... You get the odd rumble aswell.

Looking good :)

Sun is burning off the milkiness, here, very very close and humid. Uncomfortable, actually. Charging up camera batteries and preparing to go and sit on Bluebell hill as that clump near you gets closer to me.

Edited by VillagePlank
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
:) Its only 11.30, we have a whole 12 hours ahead of potential and you're throwing in the towel??????

You have to train yourself Coast to ignore the typical doom and gloom posts (in the morning for God's sake!) :) and only read the informative posts and the reports.

It's one reason why we get so many pages on here! :)

Incidentally we're not going to see anything here, typical! :)

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

This afternoon is going to be interesting if the sun comes out.

Theres plenty of moisture about to help kick things off again.

Bring on 5pm :)

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Kain Contributor

Kain

Posted
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Snow
  • Location: Highley, Shropshire, WV16
Posted

Although the cloud is still here, its actually starting to get brighter.

This could be the start of the sun burning this rubbish off.

Do it by early afternoon then I think the chance for us is pretty damn good.

It does feel kinda chilly though at the mo

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fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted
I am not kidding, if something happens you'll have a picture of me eating a Nike Hat complete with Tomato Sauce & maybe some salad.

i think i will be joining you on that one, temps here are going up there at a barmy 17.8.c, i think the sun wont come until later this after noon/ evening which by then it will be to late!

looking forward now to next week, when the met office say it might even get hotter!!!

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

No thunder for the last 5mins or more , no idea why.. :)

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*Stormforce~beka* Maestro

*Stormforce~beka*

Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
Posted
Interesting here - torro says we (Gloucestershire and Wiltshire) are currently under an "MCV".

"mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) --A low-pressure center within an MCS that pulls winds into a circling pattern, or vortex. With a core only 30 to 60 miles wide and 1 to 3 miles deep, an MCV is often overlooked in standard weather analyses. But an MCV can take on a life of its own, persisting for up to 12 hours after its parent MCS has dissipated. This orphaned MCV will sometimes then become the seed of the next thunderstorm outbreak. An MCV that moves into tropical waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, can serve as the nucleus for a tropical storm or hurricane."

http://www.ucar.edu/news/backgrounders/sto...ssary.shtml#mcv

Thank you for this! I was wondering what it was. Very interesting!

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