Storm/convective Discussion

[Kookylou]

My tip of the day is to live in Wales for the next eight days if you like t/storms

I think that is a good idea - oh wait! i do live in wales haha

we have been waiting for ages so i am pleased we're getting som action so to speak!

[andy_leics22]

blimey, what a difference the sun makes!!...since my last post 15 mins or so ago, I'm now recording 24.3C in the shade...remarkable increase, feels very humid outside now....looking radar wise, at the very least a spell of heavy rain, with the prospect of something more exciting perhaps....

latest radar grab for the midlands...

That's not a radar grab for the Midlands, that's a radar grab for Western England... LOL just kidding I'm not starting that again, don't worry peeps!

AJ, I hate asking for this but my radar subscription that I bought for a month in May has expired Could you type in LE3 and post a screenie of it please? I won't ask for another one today, just this once if you could

[Paul Sherman]

Looks like it, and meanwhile Surrey sits in grey cack with no promise of anything at all today, Surrey really is rubbish for interesting weather, even the eternal optimists on here must realise its game over for the SE.

Good luck for people in the midlands/wales

I was optimistic when I saw the Soundings this morning and Southend was at 22c and 17c Dewpoints at 9am..............But my Optimism has waned almost to a complete No show

[Kain]

Now gone very black indeed to my SE.

Could it finally be looming !

Kain

[andy_leics22]

I was optimistic when I saw the Soundings this morning and Southend was at 22c and 17c Dewpoints at 9am..............But my Optimism has waned almost to a complete No show

Good news for the outside courts at Wimbledon though I've got nothing on today so i'm going to be enjoying a tennis fest all day so i'm glad of no rain for the South East. However it would be cool in some ways because that would mean Federer would be playing in Centre Court with the roof on.

[Wilxy]

Anyone could see anoother storm before the end of this mini heatwave coming i think.

Although i was very disapointed that we didn't have anything that good apart from watching very distant lightening and head thunder about 10 minits ago.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

So *should* it ever happen what dew points and more importantly temp's should we look for?

[snow raven]

I was optimistic when I saw the Soundings this morning and Southend was at 22c and 17c Dewpoints at 9am..............But my Optimism has waned almost to a complete No show

Paul, how come things have gone pear shaped for the SE today when we started off with such great potential?

[VillagePlank]

I was optimistic when I saw the Soundings this morning and Southend was at 22c and 17c Dewpoints at 9am..............But my Optimism has waned almost to a complete No show

I'm the eternal optimist, I must admit; just need to edge those temps up a little bit more .... it will interesting to see the MetO take on this because they were calling on potential until midnight (at least their warnings are/were) and the GFS at 00z went for best potential this evening, too; maybe 6z was a little off the mark ...

[Noctilucid]

The sun is out here and we have explosive convection.

[Paul Sherman]

Paul, how come things have gone pear shaped for the SE today when we started off with such great potential?

Lol

Answers on a Postcard Leanne - Truth is as Nick F says it hasnt gone completely Tits Up yet, but as Beka has just asked are we going to get the magic Temp/Dews that we need to initiate Convective Clouds, the skies were not meant to be this cloudy, there are some breaks but 80% of the South East is shrouded in low cloud so away from the CZ I cannot see where the Forcing and Heat is going to come into play.................just yet

Paul S

**BTW Think we need something like 24c / 17c on the temps/dews

[Wilxy]

Latest bbc forecast suggests that SE could see some v heavy rain or will just miss but bbc had the thunder icon all over it.

Also chance of a storm here now after latest bbc forecast.

[Paul Sherman]

The sun is out here and we have explosive convection.

If it is to the North of you Joe, that is the CZ

[YokTok]

Well the sun has come out here for a short while so i do believe it is breaking up, I've even gone and gotten myself a full subscription at long last, just need to figure out what's what .

[VillagePlank]

So *should* it ever happen what dew points and more importantly temp's should we look for?

I'd say convection should start at 18C, minimum dew point for t/storm is a rock bottom 10C, but I'd say a rule of thumb for UK is about 12C:

The CAPE, LI etc on this chart only 'become' if the air temperature reaches, and is sustained at 22C or more, which is why us SE boys (and girls) were excited this morning. I don't think this chart is right, though. It's been >18C, here, all day, and I can't see any convection.

Edited June 26, 2009 by VillagePlank

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Lol

Answers on a Postcard Leanne - Truth is as Nick F says it hasnt gone completely Tits Up yet, but as Beka has just asked are we going to get the magic Temp/Dews that we need to initiate Convective Clouds, the skies were not meant to be this cloudy, there are some breaks but 80% of the South East is shrouded in low cloud so away from the CZ I cannot see where the Forcing and Heat is going to come into play.................just yet

Paul S

**BTW Think we need something like 24c / 17c on the temps/dews

I'm very happy with my dew point that is sat at 17.2. So not an issue there. It's the damn temp that's gonna be a hard one to break.

Sitting at 18.5c and rising very slowly. I'm personally gonna give it til 330-4pm and if nowt has broken out by then then its game over for me I recon. Although my confidence right now is sitting at 10% if that!

[A.J]

That's not a radar grab for the Midlands, that's a radar grab for Western England... LOL just kidding I'm not starting that again, don't worry peeps!

AJ, I hate asking for this but my radar subscription that I bought for a month in May has expired Could you type in LE3 and post a screenie of it please? I won't ask for another one today, just this once if you could

Trust you to post that mate!!

Your subs has expired?....tell you what , you can buy mine for £100, and I 'll chuck in a bottle of beer (empty), how's that for a super deal??...lol

ok, LE3 it is...

[Noctilucid]

If it is to the North of you Joe, that is the CZ

Nah the CZ has already moved through and gave us some heavy rain earlier, I now have some powerful looking towers to my South, and lots of clear sky. However I've been watching since last post and these towers are not sustaining themselves very well, they seem to be fairly high based too but I can't really tell because the bases are lost in the haze somewhere.

Impressive sght out the back though, line of fibrous anvils stretching right across the Northern sky.

Edited June 26, 2009 by jshaw

[A.J]

interestingly enough, an increased number of sferics along the eastern part of the trough, suffolk/west Essex/ into northants....looks like it drifting WNW, v.good for all of the midlands later on possibly!

[dogs32]

well the met still have many warning's out for the South So hopefully they are still thinking something is going to happen...

They are usaully quick off the mark to downgrade and up grade in real time...

all is not lost

Edited June 26, 2009 by dogs32

[andy_leics22]

Trust you to post that mate!!

Your subs has expired?....tell you what , you can buy mine for £100, and I 'll chuck in a bottle of beer (empty), how's that for a super deal??...lol

ok, LE3 it is...

Haha Thanks mate I appreciate that, not looking too good for storms here at the moment lol, hope those showers to the South East of me move this way during the afternoon.

[Kain]

Looks on the radar were having a ranband from the storms down soth moving through..

for gods sake...this is stressfull lol.

Can someone lean to control the weather please hehe.

[dogs32]

small heavy showers starting to grow down South towards Somerset

[Wilxy]

small heavy showers starting to grow down South towards Somerset

God somerset gunna get it all again today while me just a few miles north getting nothing

[snow raven]

Lol

Answers on a Postcard Leanne - Truth is as Nick F says it hasnt gone completely Tits Up yet, but as Beka has just asked are we going to get the magic Temp/Dews that we need to initiate Convective Clouds, the skies were not meant to be this cloudy, there are some breaks but 80% of the South East is shrouded in low cloud so away from the CZ I cannot see where the Forcing and Heat is going to come into play.................just yet

Paul S

**BTW Think we need something like 24c / 17c on the temps/dews

Thanks Paul. The sun really does seem to be making a break through here at the South Bank, hopefully it will get the temperatures going in the right direction!