Storm/convective Discussion

[Chloe]

I am not kidding, if something happens you'll have a picture of me eating a Nike Hat complete with Tomato Sauce & maybe some salad.

I'll join you!

[JamieUK]

France is getting very busy, wheres our lot lol

[Paul Sherman]

Weather09

The convergence Zone is already pretty well set up - Very easy to see on the radar as well.

Currently lying from SE Essex and then arcs to the North of London through Luton and onto just North of Gloucester into Wales, Expect this to shift Northwards as the day goes on and then areas to the North of this come into Play, So Northampton, Birmingham and most of the Midlands looking good tbh

The pain looks like continuing for most parts of the South East if this occurs, only chances now for some home grown stuff out of the CZ Zone, but with leaden grey skies and no solar input dont get yer hopes up

Paul S

[VillagePlank]

Im in NorthWest Mids and Shawbury is reporting temps already of 20 degrees, and dew points down at 10. Intresting.

Humidity, at the surface is forecast to drop, for a time, about now, which is why some people are reporting feeling a little chilly. But it should be no concern, it's only at the surface and it's plenty moist all the way up being mostly 90%+

Here's why surface Td's seem a little low, at the minute ...

The pain looks like continuing for most parts of the South East if this occurs, only chances now for some home grown stuff out of the CZ Zone, but with leaden grey skies and no solar input dont get yer hopes up

Yup - I agree. Td needs to be at least 16C, and Tc needs to be at least 23C. It seems long way off at the moment .... with most places in the S/E reporting less than 20Tc at the moment, and, according to GFS 6z, about now being the perfect time.

Edited June 26, 2009 by VillagePlank

[Paul Sherman]

Ah, I see Well I suppose all I can is wait and see how things progress.

LOL

You guys are in a better position than the SE Believe me. Forecasting Thunderstorms is an ever changing beast, and as such things not going to plan today (Once Again seems to be the favourite thing for the SE This Year) But I would rather be in your area than down in this gloom and muck that does not look like shifting, at least Wimbledon might get away with another dry day.

Depends on how that lot over near Calais fairs, but not much Westward movement for South Easteners, seems to be hitting the Dover area and arcing around the CZ.

Paul S

[fromey]

according to sat24.com looks like clearer skys are begining to move in to the south coast

[Neilsouth]

Storms decayed and died very quickly in the south east with most getting nothing at all

[VillagePlank]

Depends on how that lot over near Calais fairs, but not much Westward movement for South Easteners, seems to be hitting the Dover area and arcing around the CZ.

Yup - our hopes lie with the French. Again.

Here's the clump, with current direction of travel annotated.

According to StrikeStar, it's not particularly electrificated (I made that word up)

Edited June 26, 2009 by VillagePlank

[Glideslope]

Heavy rain passing over, very dark as it approached, no lightning.....

Steve

[Nick F]

Been pretty sunny here in west Kent for the last few hours, so its not all grey and gloomy in the SE! However, there isn't really any hard convection going yet, probably because the warm moist air is capped and we need the convective temperature to be reached before we may see surface based storms erupt across Sern England. For now, it is the elevated storms along the convergence ahead of the trough which are bringing sferics to SE Wales and isolated pockets across S Midlands and Nern Home Counties.

[VillagePlank]

Been pretty sunny here in west Kent for the last few hours, so its not all grey and gloomy in the SE! However, there isn't really any hard convection going yet, probably because the warm moist air is capped and we need the convective temperature to be reached before we may see surface based storms erupt across Sern England. For now, it is the elevated storms along the convergence ahead of the trough which are bringing sferics to SE Wales and isolated pockets across S Midlands and Nern Home Counties.

Headcorn reporting Tc's of 21C so gradually climbing .....

[snow raven]

The sun really is trying to burn the cloud cover in London at the mo. Really hope it succeeds and all is not lost for the SE today.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

according to sat24.com looks like clearer skys are begining to move in to the south coast

Nothing here yet. But it is getting a bit brighter cloud so it's trying.

[A.J]

Things are picking up here in south staffs now...outside temp of 22.9C...RAF Cosford, just down the road, is reporting 16C dewpoints, the low crud is breaking up, the sun is starting to shine, and very soon I shall be spotted in the back garden rain dancing...

[VillagePlank]

Headcorn reporting Tc's of 21C so gradually climbing .....

Headcorn at 23C. Blimey it's rising fast ....

Edited June 26, 2009 by VillagePlank

[Kain]

Things are picking up here in south staffs now...outside temp of 22.9C...RAF Cosford, just down the road, is reporting 16C dewpoints, the low crud is breaking up, the sun is starting to shine, and very soon I shall be spotted in the back garden rain dancing...

Not breaking up here =(

Damned Birdgnorth lol

[Nick F]

Headcorn reporting Tc's of 21C so gradually climbing .....

Must admit, the 06z UKMO meso model doesn't looks so good for storms across SE and S England this afternoon, with the emphasis more towards the Midlands and SE Wales seeing storms where there is more forcing near the CZ. Seems the convective temp to be reached *maybe* too high, despite sunshine increasing across Sern counties.

[andy_leics22]

Man oh man, where are the storms in Central and Southern England? There is a small line of heavy precip stretching from Birmingham to North London but it's hardly anything at the moment. It's completely clear on the radar along the south coast and in areas like Berkshire and Oxford.

[Kain]

Met O has now upgraded shropshire to an orange warning for thunderstorms and heavy rain for afternoon and evening.

Be fantastic to have a nightime storm.

[A.J]

blimey, what a difference the sun makes!!...since my last post 15 mins or so ago, I'm now recording 24.3C in the shade...remarkable increase, feels very humid outside now....looking radar wise, at the very least a spell of heavy rain, with the prospect of something more exciting perhaps....

latest radar grab for the midlands...

Edited June 26, 2009 by ajpoolshark

[Kookylou]

Must admit, the 06z UKMO meso model doesn't looks so good for storms across SE and S England this afternoon, with the emphasis more towards the Midlands and SE Wales seeing storms where there is more forcing near the CZ. Seems the convective temp to be reached *maybe* too high, despite sunshine increasing across Sern counties.

what what what?!?! could we be lucky again!?!?!?!

[VillagePlank]

what what what?!?! could we be lucky again!?!?!?!

My tip of the day is to live in Wales for the next eight days if you like t/storms

[SteveB]

Met O has now upgraded shropshire to an orange warning for thunderstorms and heavy rain for afternoon and evening.

Be fantastic to have a nightime storm.

On top of that, they have a heat watch out for Monday & Tuesday next week.

[anvilhead]

anyone able to post a sounding for today? - would be interesting to see what convective temps need to be reached - its no suprise theres no activity behind the front with the cloud we're expierencing, but if it burns off later with any convergence for forcing, no reason why things cant go pop as far as im aware

[Cableguy]

what what what?!?! could we be lucky again!?!?!?!

Looks like it, and meanwhile Surrey sits in grey cack with no promise of anything at all today, Surrey really is rubbish for interesting weather, even the eternal optimists on here must realise its game over for the SE.

Good luck for people in the midlands/wales