Model Output Discussion

[The PIT]

ECM is yucky as well the ducks are having a party outside. The Jet stream seems to like staying south these summers. Three years on the bounce now now who's going to say xxxxxx summer?

[bluearmy]

Edit: CPC 8-14 dayer starting to pull the mean trough back west ?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...y/814day.03.gif

a shift westwards of 10 degrees with the low height anomoly wrt yesterday in the 10/14 dayer. the longwave pattern is a tad retrograded in comparison to previous output. however, it is subtle and i would doubt that the nwp will start to pick up on any green chutes in the pacific just yet. waiting for the NAEFFS 12z mean charts later to see if they follow up these cpc charts.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM is yucky as well the ducks are having a party outside. The Jet stream seems to like staying south these summers. Three years on the bounce now now who's going to say xxxxxx summer?

Maybe for another thread but that is the longterm trend, jet shifting south and we should start to get used to it.

Looking ahead still pencil in 28-31 July for torrential downpours

BFTP

Edited July 14, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Snowyowl9]

Looks like a break from the heavy showers tomorrow here anyway.

Next day looks much more interesting though with heavy thundery downpours again with light winds.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack1.gif

As for friday looks like a N-ly gale coming in, cold and quite wet but GFS shows it more showery type.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack2.gif

Edited July 14, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[chionomaniac]

Too early to say for sure, but tonight's tropical wind and convection data looks a lot better than last night's.

Now that is better news.

And with the MJO now in a stronger phase 4 we can hope that the increase in amplitude and tropical convection continues through into phases 5/6. It may take a little time to get where we many would like but certainly a stepping stone in the right direction once we see out phase 5.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/peop..._CFSOP_GEFS.gif

The MJO phase 6 500hPa composite is certainly more promising for a southerly drawer when aligned with those Atlantic SST's.

The question I have GP, is what do the GWO composites for the same phase suggest?

c

[bluearmy]

further to the 'green chutes' from earlier, the NAEFFS 12z run shows a ridge (1020mb) over the southern half of the UK around the 26/07. this is the third consec run to show this. it doesnt last for more than a couple of days but at such a long range, an anomoly such as this should be taken seriously when it repeats. there are signs of the atlantic and north american jet becoming a little more fragmented at the same time. a slight upward trend in temps for the dutch ecm ens at this timescale and yes, maybe there are signs for optimism as we approach the last week of the month. if it happened, would be an uncanny repeat of may and june.

[damianslaw]

The synoptical evolution over the coming three days reminds me of what you may normally expect to see in the wet unsettled quadrant of the year i.e. mid october to late january and not something you wish or necessarily expect to see happening in mid July.

Seeing a rapidly deepening low pressure zipping its way to park itself over the country just after one low has traversed the country equals only one thing the jet is very very active indeed and really has suddenly awoken from its slumber.. been a long time since we have seen such consistently unsettled synoptics for the immediate outlook.

The weekend is looking rather poor with a cool northerly airstream developing and showers and cloud more likely than any prolonged sunshine and with a cool wind aswell it is not the best start to the school holidays, hopefully it is not a sign of things to come for other summer weekends.

Can't see anything remotely settled for the foreseeable future, I'm not expecting any major pattern change for at least the next 10 days.

[johnholmes]

the NOAA charts have been 'leaning' that way for a day or two now

[mushymanrob]

im reckon the 'green shoots' may well be flooded out, this week is shaping up (here) to be worse then anything 07 threw at us. and the current output doesnt suggest it will improve. with a prediction of 50/50 for something more settled early august, that means its 50/50 that it WONT improve.... guess which 50% im backing

[Methuselah]

It certainly doesn't look good for the weekend...But, are there tentative signs of a proper Azores HP in the hallowed realms of FI? Could there be a straw to clutch at!

[whitestuff]

im reckon the 'green shoots' may well be flooded out, this week is shaping up (here) to be worse then anything 07 threw at us. and the current output doesnt suggest it will improve. with a prediction of 50/50 for something more settled early august, that means its 50/50 that it WONT improve.... guess which 50% im backing B)

So you're saying we're going to get widespread floods with whole towns cut off?

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I suggested yesterday a reload situation of the whole pattern to come next week with another low following a brief ridge early next week and a potential very brief plume ahead of this low before it tracks like its predecessors across the UK and into Scandinavia. This still looks well on course in the general modelling this morning.

There is absolutely no sign of a change to the current pattern and I think that waiting for changes beyond that is in hope rather than expectation for those that are looking for heat as we go into August. Of course it might happen - but there is no evidence at all atm of a change to the pattern and another reload next week will subsequently take us beyond a ten day time frame right towards the very end of the month.

That is not being negative towards summer prospects - but just stating what the models show B)

[Eugene]

Definate improvement this morning in some models for early next week, GFS 06Z is showing a stalling low to our west letting HP on the near continent to build pulling up a lovely southerly plume, maybe another mini hot spell like late June/early July is imminent, only maybe though at this stage.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png

[anvilhead]

Definate improvement this morning in some models for early next week, GFS 06Z is showing a stalling low to our west letting HP on the near continent to build pulling up a lovely southerly plume, maybe another mini hot spell like late June/early July is imminent, only maybe though at this stage.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1501.png Oh hello -

[anvilhead]

Yeah, noticed that aswell on the 18z run yesterday, looks like a few days with quite warm temps (Mid 20Cs+) for parts of England. Something to keep an eye on if your wanting a warm spell and/or thundery weather.

might be a very simplistic view of mine but like the last blast of heat we had, the atlantic filled up with cold air and a screaming southerly jet, but the trough gradualy retrogressed west until eventualy we get a southerly plume and a temporary high holding over europe up-ridge - a similar thing to whats happening now maybe ?

[William of Walworth]

A very few green shoots of possible recovery there (albeit temporary?) for next week -- in some places/in some models anyway. Very much a 'maybe' though.

<prays and tries to be patient -- I'm literally longing for later next week not to be unsettled and rain dominated in the South >

ETA : And thanks to Eugene (!), weather09 and anvilhead for those comments and links -- do they contradict NSSC's general comments at all or would any slight warmup be just a temporary respite from a continuing Jet dominated pattern? Hard to call isn't it ....

Longer term (into August?) I want to feel encouraged by GP's detailed post from last night, and chion's comments. But far from confident enough yet ....

Edited July 15, 2009 by William of Walworth

[Michael Winston]

I suggested yesterday a reload situation of the whole pattern to come next week with another low following a brief ridge early next week and a potential very brief plume ahead of this low before it tracks like its predecessors across the UK and into Scandinavia. This still looks well on course in the general modelling this morning.

There is absolutely no sign of a change to the current pattern and I think that waiting for changes beyond that is in hope rather than expectation for those that are looking for heat as we go into August. Of course it might happen - but there is no evidence at all atm of a change to the pattern and another reload next week will subsequently take us beyond a ten day time frame right towards the very end of the month.

That is not being negative towards summer prospects - but just stating what the models show

....and it is St. Swithin's day!

Regards,

Mike.

[richep]

So is it going to rain on saturday in the fairford area (gloucestshire)

[Snowyowl9]

I can`t believe how optimistic Eugene is because it only looks like 2 warm dry days then back to atlantic wet,I`d much rather see an azores come in late this month to settle things right off and stop this conveyer belt,ECM does not paint a pretty picture yet.

[William of Walworth]

As Eugene said, there models suggest a stalling Low to the West allowing HP to build up from the continent for early next week. I think should there be a warm spell next week it'll be short lived. But at least it provides a glimmer of hope in what is otherwise a grim few weeks ahead.

I sort of agree with you. Well not necessarily about the 'grim few weeks' bit as I think some of the potential developments that GP posted about could end up at least ameliorating the worst for many, especially further South. I mean later on, into the start of August.

But yes any Continental High that might come in next week does have 'shortlived' written on it doesn't it. At risk of retrogressing after a frustratingly short time perhaps.

....and it is St. Swithin's day!

Predominantly dry across most of the South today though!

Surely we aren't superstitious folklorists here .... <clings to rationalism>

I can`t believe how optimistic Eugene is because it only looks like 2 warm dry days then back to atlantic wet,I`d much rather see an azores come in late this month to settle things right off and stop this conveyer belt,ECM does not paint a pretty picture yet.

I agree about the AH preference ...

But the devil surely lies in the developing detail next week and we'll have to look for later runs on that -- altogether possible with relatively minor positioning changes to end up with a sort of half way house? in which HP continues to influence parts of the South and East for a bit longer, and the returning Jet sends its badness predominantly Northwards. I wish I knew enough about how models might develop to be able to assess the likelihood or not of that though -- not all that likely perhaps.

<prays for HP, if it has to be shortlived, to be delayed nearer to next weekend!>

Edited July 15, 2009 by William of Walworth

[William of Walworth]

Latest update (1 pm Weds) to the verbal version of the UKMO's modelling

UK Outlook for Monday 20 Jul 2009 to Wednesday 29 Jul 2009:

On Monday it looks set to be unsettled with sunshine and heavy showers, although a band of more organised rain is likely to move into southwestern areas later, before spreading northwards to affect all but the very far north of Scotland on Tuesday. Then later in the week it looks likely to remain unsettled with either heavy showers or longer spells of rain. However, any persistent rain should gradually become confined to more northern areas. It will probably be occasionally windy and the temperature is likely to be close to or a bit cooler than average, although possibly becoming warm for a time in the east. Finally, unsettled conditions could well persist in northern areas during the weekend and into the second week, although southern parts may become more settled.

I've bolded the less pessimistic bits just to cheer myself up a tad, but UKMO don't seem to want to see any Continental High having much if any influence next week .....

[NorthantsSnow]

The main story is still Friday's projected rainfall. Could be very significant for some areas and localised flooding could be a problem.

This chart is quite scary for the east coast but the worst of it would appear to be over the North Sea:

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs....6/45/ukprec.png

By 9am though some heavier pulses do begin to appear over the UK:

http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs....6/51/ukprec.png

Edited July 15, 2009 by NorthantsSnow

[Frosty.]

still pencil in 28-31 July for torrential downpours

BFTP

Hmmmm, maybe we should pencil in this friday for torrential downpours too in england & wales, come to that, many days next week will have torrential downpours in various parts of the uk. A very unsettled spell ahead of us and turning cooler during the first part of next week before some recovery in the second half as winds become southerly or south easterly for a time. Signs of a slacker pressure pattern to close out July and early August which could mean warm/humid with mix of sun and thundery showers.

[karyo]

Hmmmm, maybe we should pencil in this friday for torrential downpours too in england & wales, come to that, many days next week will have torrential downpours in various parts of the uk. A very unsettled spell ahead of us and turning cooler during the first part of next week before some recovery in the second half as winds become southerly or south easterly for a time. Signs of a slacker pressure pattern to close out July and early August which could mean warm/humid with mix of sun and thundery showers.

I think the torrential downpoors will be in the far east/southeast with the rest of the country having light to moderate rain/showers.

I agree though that the outlook remains unsettled with plenty of convective/storm interest and no real heat. I welcome the outlook as this is the summer pattern i find the most pleasing.

Already the days are noticeably getting shorter which should help my sleeping pattern get back to normal! I know many people who suffer every year from the ridiculously early morning sunrise!

Karyo

[Michael Winston]

Surely we aren't superstitious folklorists here .... <clings to rationalism>

Definitely not, William, although this article raises a few interesting points........

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/8151499.stm

Rationally yours,

Kind regards,

Mike.