Convective/storm Discussion Thurs 23>>>>>>>>>

[liambailey09]

witnessed a small short lasting funnel cloud today. Managed to record it on my dads camcorder although i cant upload anything as it records onto tapes. Besides it was about 2 or 3 miles away.

[kaz]

looks like there may be a few hefty showers for my area tomorrow but they will be very isolated.. Can live in hope. just got back from turkey where temps were 45 then for 5 days went up to 51.. far to hot. like the new layout.

kaz x

[azores92]

looks like there may be a few hefty showers for my area tomorrow but they will be very isolated.. Can live in hope. just got back from turkey where temps were 45 then for 5 days went up to 51.. far to hot. like the new layout.

kaz x

51 degrees celsius? surely you would die in that sort of heat if you spent too long in it, that is the height of excruciating heat. mid 30s is about the hottest i would want it.

[03jtrickey]

51 degrees celsius? surely you would die in that sort of heat if you spent too long in it, that is the height of excruciating heat. mid 30s is about the hottest i would want it.

Wow, that is unbelievably hot! It must feel frigid here now - how are you finding it?

[Thundersquall]

Looks from the radar like there's some strong development west of Cardiff and over eastern parts of Exmoor. Looks like a discrete band of heavy rain espectally over South Wales.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

Edited July 23, 2009 by Thundersquall

[sunny scunny]

There's hardly been a drop of rain here in the last 4 days, so fingers crossed for something to happen tomorrow

[Tony Gilbert]

11pm Thurs

Moderate Risk of Scattered Thunderstorms Eire, southern Scotland & UK 06Z-21Z

Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms/ Tornado Development 12Z-21Z Central South and SE Region UK inc E.Anglia.

UKMO Fax chart predicts vigorous surface troughing from fairly early on in the day. Whilst the risk of storms looks fairly wide spread, specific focus here is made to the region that is vertically sheared (red box).

Long wave upper trough continues to deepen and move east through Friday increasing lapse rates rather rapidly over mild seas to the west and later in the morning over solar heating at surface. PVA max is stacked and inline with some of the strongest CAPE. Whilst the jet stream 500mb shows just 30 kts toward central south and SE regions. The forecast conditions resemble a classic low shear/ high instability scenario with very strong CAPE values anticipated. Main restriction ATM might be meager increase in shear with height above 700mb. Dry air incursion mid levels looks to follow in behind the troughing to the SE. A NWerly low level jet 32 kts over westerly 10 kt surface vector will increase the risk of tornado development quite soon after mid day. Particularly so for Sussex and Kent. In addition to this , given the combination of fairly low freezing level and dry air, any sustained cell formation will be more than capable of producing large hail.

Please note; Any attributation to a 'Severe Thunderstorm' classification will be in association with a strong thunderstorm derived from low shear/ high instability. Capable of producing severe level hail (over 3/4inch) or a tornado. It is noted that in this instance the two combined are borderline to what we would normally like to see.

[kaz]

Wow, that is unbelievably hot! It must feel frigid here now - how are you finding it?

im flipping freezing... it was so hot even the turk's were melting i just swelled up my ankles were 3 times the normal size and my fingers, those temps only lasted a week then the wind got up and boy it was windy, so temps dropped to 43/45 saw loads of er um dust devils think thats right they were causing eddys out at sea to.

kaz x

[pinball wizard]

I think tomorrow is definatelymostly a day for the Midlands, E Anglia and much of Southern England tomorrow and perhaps East Wales for a time.

I would say showers/storms will begin to fade away from SW parts, Wales and perhaps the West Midlands by about 2pm ish While further East until late afternoon.

The BBC Maps make tomorrow look like not much fuss but i think there will be plenty on. I think SW England and parts of Wales will definately act as a breeding ground tomorrow so perhaps not seeing much in the way of storms. The best storms of the day i think will be somewhere in the East Midlands or East Anglia, particularly Suffolk.

No problems here.

Hope you are right about Suffolk, we caught a heavy shower earlier today about 5.30pm but no thunder, been a good 7 days since the last storm lol

[azores92]

Hope you are right about Suffolk, we caught a heavy shower earlier today about 5.30pm but no thunder, been a good 7 days since the last storm lol

i can see today isnt quite finished just yet, that small band of heavy rain is working its way towards brum now, originating from southern wales, and could give a short period of heavy rain.

[Harry]

Surprised nobody has mentioned the MCS like feature running out of N France at the moment, looking likely to run up possible Southern W and E Sussex, and possibly most of S and E Kent.

[Paul Sherman]

Surprised nobody has mentioned the MCS like feature running out of N France at the moment, looking likely to run up possible Southern W and E Sussex, and possibly most of S and E Kent.

Harry That is Interesting as remember we were talking about the 3rd Thursday MCS Earlier this week and that was what the Models were showing. Current Track takes it as you say just skimming the coasts of Sussex, Kent etc

Anyone know if it is electrical as the Cloud Tops dont look up to much at present

Paul S

[Harry]

Harry That is Interesting as remember we were talking about the 3rd Thursday MCS Earlier this week and that was what the Models were showing. Current Track takes it as you say just skimming the coasts of Sussex, Kent etc

Anyone know if it is electrical as the Cloud Tops dont look up to much at present

Paul S

Shame Coast isnt here - he'd be in a prime position to see!

Oh well - not likely to move too close to here even if it is electrical, so I am off for some shut eye!

Lets hope the models for tomorrow are the same (or better ) in the morning - then it could be an interesting day! London area is slap bang in the middle of the mass area of CAPE, the TORRO Severe watch (though even they admit severe may be a smidge of a hyperbole)

Then...roll on Sunday

EDIT - Wish I hadnt just rechecked the radar - both the cell which has just past Le Havre, and the one further E are intensifying over the Channel. The one further E is a no hoper, but the one near Le Havre does seem to show signs of veering more northerly! Judging by Sat24, it seems to have escaped the strong ENE'rly winds (jet streak?) across France, and is now following the wind flow of the Low!

Wait/sleep/wait/sleep...???....judging by latest MetO loop - sleep!

Night again lol

Edited July 23, 2009 by Harry

[StormChaser]

Personaly I think we will just get heavy rain. But I Hope, I am wrong. Im fedup of kent getting all the blasted fun

Edited July 24, 2009 by StormChaser

[Lightningboy]

currently having a very heavy downpour with huge spots and jumping high of the ground but no thunder

[Lightningboy]

wow that is extremely heavy

[Mike Storm]

Radar is stuck at 0225. I saw some lovely anvils last night on my way up the M2 but they all headed off in to Essex. Hoping for something later today

[k66yla]

It must've rained really hard here just before 6, I did'nt hear any thunder. Lovely blue sky for about an hour but now thats gone. Looks as more of the same is on the way, wonder if we get anything electical

[Tn9]

It must've rained really hard here just before 6, I did'nt hear any thunder. Lovely blue sky for about an hour but now thats gone. Looks as more of the same is on the way, wonder if we get anything electical

Looks busy outside this morning already, ,beautiful sky's

[Marcus_surfer]

Thunderstorm here, pretty loud rumbles of thunder and flashes of lightning

[Snowyowl9]

This is early not thunder but huge CB`s lineing up in the NW it`s been a few years for this time of day.

[maidstone weather]

torrential downpour here at the mo! Dropped out of nowhere! :o

we now have a warning

Edited July 24, 2009 by maidstone weather

[dogs32]

very surprised in the early hrs...we had quite a few heavy thundery down pours with no thunder

look's very interesting what's building in West Wale's on radar

Edited July 24, 2009 by dogs32

[SteveB]

I had a couple of showers over night, nothing heavy though, only giving around 1mm.

At least reports of thunder are already coming in. If you are lucky enough to be under the showers today,then it could be a good day.

[k66yla]

I see Michael Fish has just mentioned the Severe weather warning on the local news. It is bound to be bad weather today its my day off :o