Scottish Cold Spell Discussion:

[JRMcLeod]

You should check cairngorm, -17oC windchill with daytime av at -9oC

[Mondy]

So is the forthcoming cold snap anything to do with the fact the sunspot count is highest so far of new cycle 24 and the solar flux is at its highest too?

[Big Innes Madori]

Yes, I've noticed that er- I think the hilarious 'lampers' thread helped, and even the usually heated model output discussion page reads more like the usual rampers corner! I hope that, for once, East central Scotland takes the brunt of the snowfall, something that never happened last year! Some snow showers possible tomorrow and into Friday, with the band of frontal snow on Saturday looking good in most places, but I think Sunday into Monday could be very special from Aberdeen to Dunbar, with the wind from the east and a band of heavy snow sitting right over us all night. One to watch anyway, with ground temps below 0^oC.

edit: forgot to mention Islay also getting hit very badly on this chart! Not sure they'd really expect that much snow, so it would be interesting to see how they coped!

LS

Hi LS,

Isn't it ironic thou, while we have all been on the Model thread as usual for the past weeks searching long and hard to see where we might find a cold spell developing and with hopes that this will lead to some snow, Spain (as you all know, the hot country where many go on holiday in the summer time) can get snow no probs without any effort!

Check out the pictures on the BBC web page, showing all the snow in Madrid and other Spanish towns and places over the past few days

I think we just have to accept that if winter wants to visit Scotland then it will do so, if it disnae, it disnae

Oh how our weather has changed since the late 80s Snow was a given in winter up till that point!!!

Big Innes.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hi LS,

Isn't it ironic thou, while we have all been on the Model thread as usual for the past weeks searching long and hard to see where we might find a cold spell developing and with hopes that this will lead to some snow, Spain (as you all know, the hot country where many go on holiday in the summer time) can get snow no probs without any effort!

Check out the pictures on the BBC web page, showing all the snow in Madrid and other Spanish towns and places over the past few days

I think we just have to accept that if winter wants to visit Scotland then it will do so, if it disnae, it disnae

Oh how our weather has changed since the late 80s Snow was a given in winter up till that point!!!

Big Innes.

hi,

hope you've twigged by now that I am, in fact, cwpiper from last winter's forums, merely under a new guise! The map on my avatar shows how effective our snowshield has been in past years, but maybe, just maybe, we have reason to get a bit excited about snowfall this year. The potential is there, moreso than last year, I think (although we did have about ten near misses last year!). Temperatures look much less marginal, with the -5 uppers hanging around from around 3am tomorrow morning till at least the 23rd, maybe later, so any precipitation will be snow, and with low pressure around, it would take something for us to avoid the snow! Having said that, i'm always suspicious of the 0 hour downgrade which seems to have afflicted our recent winters.

Heres hoping

LS

[Highland Snow]

Just watched the BBC Scotland Weather and on Saturday there is a Cold Front bringing a Wintry mixture but with snow mostly confined to high ground. Is that really what the charts are showing? Temperatures behind the Cold Front are 4-5C.

[Sunny Leith]

Just seen Heather on the beeb there. Bit of a curious forecast. Despite the easterly of the next 24-36 hours, most of the "wintry showers" (yes we're back to that...) are forecast for NE Scotland. Despite the synoptics pointing to the kind of conditions that usually sees them hitting SE/central Scotland and through the central belt corridor.

Then the weekend forecast saying snow moving south and "weakening" and mostly on high ground.

Could all be wrong of course but seemed like a rather watered down (although possibly more realistic !) view of whats going to happen up here in the next few days.

[Polar Gael]

Well I reckon we'll have so much snow by this time next week, we'll all be building these:

http://www.nfb.ca/film/How_to_Build_an_Igloo/

[sammie]

Well the Beebhave been cautious on this event since it started to crop its head up. However beening the horrible downer that I am, I'm not expecting any snow here at all. Which sucks. Then again means I'll be able to go drinking without getting snowballed.

[snowmess]

Well I reckon we'll have so much snow by this time next week, we'll all be building these:

http://www.nfb.ca/fi...Build_an_Igloo/

If we get that much snow, I will personally (try) building one and dedicate it to Polar Gael

--

I'm not expecting anything/much, same as Sammie:(

Edited December 16, 2009 by snowmess

[Big Innes Madori]

hi,

hope you've twigged by now that I am, in fact, cwpiper from last winter's forums, merely under a new guise! The map on my avatar shows how effective our snowshield has been in past years, but maybe, just maybe, we have reason to get a bit excited about snowfall this year. The potential is there, moreso than last year, I think (although we did have about ten near misses last year!). Temperatures look much less marginal, with the -5 uppers hanging around from around 3am tomorrow morning till at least the 23rd, maybe later, so any precipitation will be snow, and with low pressure around, it would take something for us to avoid the snow! Having said that, i'm always suspicious of the 0 hour downgrade which seems to have afflicted our recent winters.

Heres hoping

LS

Aye CW,

I remember the old you mate

I do think that winter may well be changing back to that of old and I'm not sure that it's just any one thing in particular that can cause this change!

I suspect it will be a combination of many different factors and I agree that we did come close last winter as that was definately a colder one than many previous years

but probably drier in our area due to it been colder???

Big Innes

[LomondSnowstorm]

Just seen Heather on the beeb there. Bit of a curious forecast. Despite the easterly of the next 24-36 hours, most of the "wintry showers" (yes we're back to that...) are forecast for NE Scotland. Despite the synoptics pointing to the kind of conditions that usually sees them hitting SE/central Scotland and through the central belt corridor.

Then the weekend forecast saying snow moving south and "weakening" and mostly on high ground.

Could all be wrong of course but seemed like a rather watered down (although possibly more realistic !) view of whats going to happen up here in the next few days.

No chance, typical pessimism based on previous letdowns. Anything marginal about this?:

[Duncan McAlister]

Just watched the BBC Scotland Weather and on Saturday there is a Cold Front bringing a Wintry mixture but with snow mostly confined to high ground. Is that really what the charts are showing? Temperatures behind the Cold Front are 4-5C.<_<

Indeed, a terrible forecast and inexplicable given the GFS, ECM AND UKMO. I'm always pessimistic about my own area, Gulf Stream and all that, but I thought for most of Scotland, the synoptics don't really get much better.

But as they say, never look more than 24 hours out for snow.

[Birkhill saints]

<br />Thanks Worzel. Still can't understand those temps. of 4-5C behind the Occlusion with the air source obviously from the Arctic Circle.<img src='http://forum.netweather.tv/public/style_emoticons/default/aggressive.gif' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='<_<' /><br />

<br /><br /><br />

YEA dont worry heather is wrong you should see a couple of inches sat and sun . But the fun will begin on mon/tues as the models will end up with an easterly by xmas day.

[Polar Gael]

Just watched the BBC Scotland Weather and on Saturday there is a Cold Front bringing a Wintry mixture but with snow mostly confined to high ground. Is that really what the charts are showing? Temperatures behind the Cold Front are 4-5C.

I suspect the Beeb are going to end up with rather a lot of snow on their face after the weekend. <_<

Edited December 16, 2009 by Polar Gael

[Gilly]

Oh I am still optimistic we will get something Pete........:lol:

A NW Rob hmmmmmm interesting, no sign of that yet!

I will be patient.

[Cookie]

A toasty 7oC here tonight.

winds gusting 42 mph.

so not really much cold discussion

[shuggee]

Yes, it's not until the early hours that the cold kicks-in from the east and any ppn turns to snow Cookie

[blitzen]

I hope you are right LS. As I said in an earlier post today, that was one weird lunchtime forecast considering the charts we are seeing. I would not be so perturbed if I was reading this in one of the tabloids or even on ITV weather. The weather is her business and she very rarely gets it wrong. First time for everything though but I'm a tad deflated this evening.

[snow1975]

Just seen Heather on the beeb there. Bit of a curious forecast. Despite the easterly of the next 24-36 hours, most of the "wintry showers" (yes we're back to that...) are forecast for NE Scotland. Despite the synoptics pointing to the kind of conditions that usually sees them hitting SE/central Scotland and through the central belt corridor.

Then the weekend forecast saying snow moving south and "weakening" and mostly on high ground.

Could all be wrong of course but seemed like a rather watered down (although possibly more realistic !) view of whats going to happen up here in the next few days.

There is one, maybe two troughs meant to push SW in the next 24 hours. I think one should pass through Fife before dawn. I expect a mixture of sleet, small hail, snow pellets, snow and large hail.

There could be snow flurries Thurs night into Friday. There ought to be at least a 1-2cm covering by Friday morning?

[Cookie]

Yes, it's not until the early hours that the cold kicks-in from the east and any ppn turns to snow Cookie

im fed up of waiting, :lol:

its nice seeing the very snowy looking clouds starting to appear in the past few days.

[blitzen]

Speaking entirely for myself here but I think what my problem is is that I'm probably taking the NW snow risk charts as a definite outcome. I have heard it said before on here that they are only accurate when they are within about 12hrs prediction time. Maybe a case of seeing what I want to see when the true analysis is something different? Hope I am wrong with this but we will see.

[Duncan McAlister]

On the plus side, MetO forecast on own site looking good for Ayr with heavy snow from Saturday night through to Sunday night. Web site normally quite accurate for here :lol:

[blitzen]

On the plus side, MetO forecast on own site looking good for Ayr with heavy snow from Saturday night through to Sunday night. Web site normally quite accurate for here

Well that's encouraging Duncan.

[Duncan McAlister]

Well that's encouraging Duncan.

Yes and if Ayr get snow from this front, pretty much anyone will!

[Sunny Leith]

Speaking entirely for myself here but I think what my problem is is that I'm probably taking the NW snow risk charts as a definite outcome. I have heard it said before on here that they are only accurate when they are within about 12hrs prediction time. Maybe a case of seeing what I want to see when the true analysis is something different? Hope I am wrong with this but we will see.

When you get right down to it Blitzen, only radar and looking out the window tells us what coming in the immediate time frame.