East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion 2

[Chris_19]

So from having some potential snow tomorrow - we now have no potential in kent.

And from having snow thursday night / Friday we now have no snow potential?

-3.4C Gravesend

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/norfolk/content/webcams/webcam_reepham_webcam.shtml

Good grief, that's a first,

NOTHING ever happens in Reepham

[maidstone weather]

-4.0c here, as it is in Headcorn Aerodrome just a few miles down the road

Edited December 15, 2009 by maidstone weather

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Evening all

Left rather confused by the latest national forecast as it doesn't really match the 18Z run of the UKMO NAE model

Good agreement now that snow will turn increasingly to sleet and then rain across the home counties as the band moves south Wednesday afternoon, but signs on the latest run of turning back to sleet/snow on the back edge as cooler upper temperatures moves in from the North-East and catches up with the fragmenting band of precip around 18Z tomorrow.

The major issue tomorrow night will be ICE. The emphasis will focus on this on television forecasts tomorrow rather then snow.

Now... Thursday and Friday. Latest data suggests further North then originally forecasts (I think that is the reason for the major back-track on BBC forecasts since teatime.) At one point this evening I saw a forecast with snow all down the coast from Newcastle to Kent. Now it's much more coastal and over East Anglia rather then Kent. For the time being, I'm relying on the fax charts more so then the NAE model.

And going more NIMBY... I think Paul mentioned +ive temps in Essex. Still +0.4C here under high cloud. Official obs from Writtle to the West are -0.3C and Andrewsfield North of here is -0.7C.

Next discussions from the Ops centre at Exeter are due shortly after 2AM and the NAE update at 3AM. I will post a summary around then.

I'm actually confused by your own post here because you say the latest national forecast doesn't really match the 18z of the UKMO but then you say that latest data suggests snow shower activity further north than previous forecasts. If the forecast doesn't match the data, then the forecast shouldn't change the postioning of the snow potential back northwards??

Which is it?? Or have I misunderstood something here??

[Neilsouth]

So from having some potential snow tomorrow - we now have no potential in kent.

And from having snow thursday night / Friday we now have no snow potential?

-3.4C Gravesend

In the space of four hours yes , those graphics are truelly terrible .The users/developers of those graphics are so far stuck up their own back sides we are forced to accept them

Edited December 15, 2009 by neilsouth

[Nick F]

So from having some potential snow tomorrow - we now have no potential in kent.

And from having snow thursday night / Friday we now have no snow potential?

-3.4C Gravesend

Incorrect.

Why do you assume that? Looks like some leading edge snow tomorrow as rain band moves south, then snow showers arriving on Friday. Don't get mislead by BBC graphics!!

[donna-m]

right i've turned my heating down as i'm still reading a temp of +1 c, dew point of -2.7,, not impressed. and now totally confused

[maidstone weather]

right i've turned my heating down as i'm still reading a temp of +1 c, dew point of -2.7,, not impressed. and now totally confused

Looking at satellite, there is some high cloud over much of Essex?

[i luv snow]

All I can say is people read into BBC weather graphics WAY too much..

[Neilsouth]

Incorrect.

Why do you assume that? Looks like some leading edge snow tomorrow as rain band moves south, then snow showers arriving on Friday. Don't get mislead by BBC graphics!!

What about the general public? , remember we know better but they don't

[Iceni]

So from having some potential snow tomorrow - we now have no potential in kent.

And from having snow thursday night / Friday we now have no snow potential?

-3.4C Gravesend

The MetO still have a 'be aware' for Kent on Friday

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ee/ee_forecast_warnings.html

[Jason H]

In the space of four hours yes , those graphics are truelly terrible .The users/developers of those graphics are so far stuck up their own back sides we are forced to accept them

Give it a rest man. They're not doing it to wind you up. I would assume that the latest info has the push of Easterly winds further North. No point whinging about the graphics just because they've changed the forecast. I'm sure you'll get some snow Thursday and Friday.

[Ocean Transit]

I'm actually confused by your own post here because you say the latest national forecast doesn't really match the 18z of the UKMO but then you say that latest data suggests snow shower activity further north than previous forecasts. If the forecast doesn't match the data, then the forecast shouldn't change the postioning of the snow potential back northwards??

Which is it?? Or have I misunderstood something here??

The focus of my post is entirely on EA and the SE. There were two parts to my post. One for tomorrow and one for Thurs/Fri.

Tomorrow: (Wednesday) is pretty much 'nailed now' - snow to rain/sleet then back to snow during the evening.

Thurs/Fri: I didn't get to see the 12Z run of the UKMO NAE model but I'm guessing it increased snowfall quite widely. When this was added to the BBC forecasts late afternoon/evening we saw that run of the model. Since then, the newer run (the 18Z) has totally backtracked on widespread snow and has limited it to northern parts of East Anglia and Lincs. This is the reason why Kent/Essex is free of any activity.

Sorry for the confusion, but it's not often we have three possible snow events in a week (and that's not including the weekend lol)

Edited December 15, 2009 by Ocean Transit

[maidstone weather]

Dropped to -4.4C now. Must be the coldest location in the UK currently surely?

[Neilsouth]

Give it a rest man. They're not doing it to wind you up. I would assume that the latest info has the push of Easterly winds further North. No point whinging about the graphics just because they've changed the forecast. I'm sure you'll get some snow Thursday and Friday.

Err Jason H I've never liked the graphics ever since they changed over , i've said it here and on two throughout it's usage. The 1990's graphics were good enough for me!

[donna-m]

Looking at satellite, there is some high cloud over much of Essex?

Thank you, i'll turn me heating back up then lol,,

Have u a link for that cloud cover please??as i only use nw radar

[Neilsouth]

Thank you, i'll turn me heating back up then lol,,

Have u a link for that cloud cover please??as i only use nw radar

http://www.sat24.nl/nl

[SMU]

The focus of my post is entirely on EA and the SE. There were two parts to my post. One for tomorrow and one for Thurs/Fri.

Tomorrow: (Wednesday) is pretty much 'nailed now' - snow to rain/sleet then back to snow during the evening.

Thurs/Fri: I didn't get to see the 12Z run of the UKMO NAE model but I'm guessing it increased snowfall quite widely. When this was added to the BBC forecasts late afternoon/evening we saw that run of the model. Since then, the newer run (the 18Z) has totally backtracked on widespread snow and has limited it to northern parts of East Anglia and Lincs. This is the reason why Kent/Essex is free of any activity.

Sorry for the confusion, but it's not often we have three possible snow events in a week (and that's not including the weekend lol)

A whole swathe of Snow on the Northern flank of the trough can just disapear......

THe focus will be for the heaviest snow to be for Lins + EA- but as the trough pulls away the Se in particualr suffolk & kent will get in on the act its impossible to avoid an Easterly flow at some point.....

S

[andy_leics22]

Jeeez guys! You are racing ahead on the regional cold spell post count

6 pages into the 2nd thread already and us poor Midlanders are still very much on the 1st one haha. I am getting very excited about Thursday now. It looks top notch for East Anglia and the South East but it looks pretty decent for my area too, not as good as the areas I just mentioned but IF the 18z run was correct then I would probably see 2 inches or so of snow on Thursday evening.

But as ever, we'll see...

[janetmh71]

Temp is rising again.

Had a low of -3.5 less than 15 minutes ago now its gone up to -2.6 also have some cloud cover.

Janet

[Ocean Transit]

12Z ECM and GFS extended ensembles for London

SURFACE TEMPS

Still some very cold runs but a slow warming trend at the surface beyond Christmas Eve

Edited December 15, 2009 by Ocean Transit

[TEITS]

I see my posts earlier made a difference with regards to the BBC graphics.

Let me put this simply.

During Thursday the showers in E Anglia will become more frequent and heavier during the day, especially late evening. Now these showers might actually start as rain/sleet especially near the coasts but turn to snow as the colder air moves SW. The peak period for E Anglia is between Thurs 6pm - Friday 6am.

For the SE the risk of snow will be a little later than EA but will arrive. At the moment I would say the risk for SE England is around 12.00am Friday to 12.00pm Friday

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

right i've turned my heating down as i'm still reading a temp of +1 c, dew point of -2.7,

You'll think that's a mistake by Friday it's going to get cold

[nick sussex]

In a world of change it's nice to see somethings never change! it was only a matter of time before the bbc graphics snow blob watch would begin!

This becomes the battle of snow blobs, i've got a blob over me on the graphics, then it disappears on the next forecast, panic ensues until another forecast replaces the snow blob!

As Steve M said the easterly has to effect the se as the trough pulls away!

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Err Jason H I've never liked the graphics ever since they changed over , i've said it here and on two throughout it's usage. The 1990's graphics were good enough for me!

And me ( I'd go back to MS-DOS if I could )