East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion 2

[Paul Sherman]

:lol: Norfolk is going to get battered by the looks of the 2230 BBC Forecast, and Teits will be pleases as well as his area gets mullered, did not look like much snow further to the South of the East Anglia region with none over Kent at all

Peter (Blackie) did not get the Pm - Can you send it again will clear my Inbox!

On a slightly funny note maybe the Inversion is setting up along the Coast keeping us Tropical compared to the rest of the South Eastites!

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Low cloud +1c.

It's been determined we will get rain tomorrow. There is nothing we can do about that... unless the cloud clears. I did notice the clouds were moving... probably in circles.

[Neilsouth]

Norfolk is going to get battered by the looks of the 2230 BBC Forecast, and Teits will be pleases as well as his area gets mullered, did not look like much snow further to the South of the East

Which goes against the fax/ukmo/gfs/ecm!... Me thinks it depends on the forecaster , we didn't even have windchill factors

[Optimus Prime]

Mostly clear, some fragmented cloud but very cold -2.5c with a covering of frost.

Which goes against the fax/ukmo/gfs/ecm!... Me thinks it depends on the forecaster , we didn't even have windchill factors

-10c windchill for the east.

[maidstone weather]

For the good or worse?

who knows - time will tell i guess

Which goes against the fax/ukmo/gfs/ecm!... Me thinks it depends on the forecaster , we didn't even have windchill factors

It's not the forecaster, it's the latest graphics issued by the MetO i.e. I would imagine their own 18z version of their high res model. (it is run 4 times a day to my knowledge, and this is it's latest update). Alex did put windchill factors on for Thursday...

Edited December 15, 2009 by maidstone weather

[Neilsouth]

Mostly clear, some fragmented cloud but very cold -2.5c with a covering of frost.

-10c windchill for the east.

When? , didn't see it on the 22.30 national!

I did on the 6.54pm and bbc news 24

EDIT : Must be the anger clouding my eyes

Edited December 15, 2009 by neilsouth

[BucksSnow]

totally confused after deakins latest forecast where has the snow for the south gone

[Tim Bland]

Can someone give me a quick run down of the immediate on the 18z please??

Really don't want to go on model thread as it gets quite confusing in there, with alot of bickering

i have 1c and a dew point of -2.7

Another breath taking run from the GFS. It is similar to the 12z up until monday when it will be mainly dry but very cold in the SE. To cut a long story short it keeps the cold right out to Christmas with a return North Easterly for the new year. This would be a cold spell to tell your grand children about, if this run came off put it that way.

I know I put the cat amoungst the pidgeons earlier by playing this down against last febs snowfall. What I will say is although i dont believe the snow will be as deep, I do think that all areas will see at least 2" and it wont be as local this time. 18z shows snow cover for the whole of the uk on christmas day! Expect the precipitation to be 3hrs later than expected. It will hit North Cambs and Beds at 8am, South Herts / Essex around 11am south of a line from Dartford to west end by 3pm

Night all!

Edited December 15, 2009 by Tim Bland

[Nick F]

:lol: Norfolk is going to get battered by the looks of the 2230 BBC Forecast, and Teits will be pleases as well as his area gets mullered, did not look like much snow further to the South of the East Anglia region with none over Kent at all

Peter (Blackie) did not get the Pm - Can you send it again will clear my Inbox!

On a slightly funny note maybe the Inversion is setting up along the Coast keeping us Tropical compared to the rest of the South Eastites!

Wouldn't take much notice of the BBC graphics on that forecast, looks like the forecaster's kids got hold of a spray can and did it for him!

Looking at the fax charts for 00z and 12z Friday, E Anglia and SE England will likely bear the brunt of heavy snow showers looking at the troughs in the flow.

[Paul Sherman]

Yeah maybe their latest Data shows the Isobars tighter across Norfolk, Suffolk, Peterborough, The Wash which will help push those showers inland and further South a slacker flow meaning just sleet and slops on the coast - Who knows what that great big super computer churns out every hour

On a positive note the 18z is probably the best set of runs I have ever seen and if Carlsberg did GFS Runs this would..................probably be the best run in the world As Smurf mentioned the chance of a reload at T150'ish and a possible white Xmas Eve!

Paul S

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Can someone give me a quick run down of the immediate on the 18z please??

Really don't want to go on model thread as it gets quite confusing in there, with alot of bickering

i have 1c and a dew point of -2.7

Hiya,

My Take on it for areas North of the Thames and South Of Kings Lynn, out to the end of Friday is

Tomorrow, may be a bit disappointing until the end of the day, the cold air doesn't really dig in until quite late in the day. Once it dos, and as the winds are coming off a relatively warm North sea we'll se convective showers near the coast

Thursday is where it gets interesting, really cold upper air, warm North sea should equal some Beefy showers, but due to a parcel of slightly warmer air, we may not get settling snow until around lunchtime, but after that they may be powerful enough to get 30-40 miles inland and stil be quite potent. I don't really see those showers dying back to the coast until quite late and I expect they'd continue within about 10 miles of the coast.

Friday, we still have a reasonable Easterly at the start of the day, so a continuation of Thursday early on, but the winds drop later in the day, so the showers may drop back towards the coast which is where I think most accumulations will happen later on friday.

I hope that's good enough, I'm still learning

The charts below are thursdays and fridays 850's and sea level pressure at 15:00

Edited December 15, 2009 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[Blackie]

Peter (Blackie) did not get the Pm - Can you send it again will clear my Inbox!

Ok, Paul. PM resent.

Strange how the Beeb has suddenly started ramping up the snow potential after virtually ignoring it only a few hours ago. But yet still not bringing it down into Essex or Kent. Fingers crossed they have underplayed that...

[Great Plum]

That national forecast was AWFUL!

How can it change that much in what 4hrs? , it had NO snow over the south east even on friday..

I'll say it again the computer graphics used on the bbc are CRAP! :lol:

Tsk is what I say... I still reckon that nearly all the country will get some snow from this at some point- and especially us in the south east... I will be surprised if we don't have 2-3 inches of snow at least in Reigate by the end of the weekend regardless of what the Beeb are telling us at present - their forecase of snow just did not stack with the models...

As an aside, it's -3.1c at Charlwood at 10pm!

[snowspotter]

Accidently posted my temperatures in the model thread ! anyway currently -3.5c here and -4.8c dewpoint.

I wouldn't worry about the graphics for snow on tv they change like crazy all the time. best to just look at radar links the night before and then in morning to get an idea of where the snow is heading (or like me every 10 minutes !!)

[Paul Sherman]

Wouldn't take much notice of the BBC graphics on that forecast, looks like the forecaster's kids got hold of a spray can and did it for him!

Looking at the fax charts for 00z and 12z Friday, E Anglia and SE England will likely bear the brunt of heavy snow showers looking at the troughs in the flow.

Oh i never do Nick LOL

They are about as good as an ashtray on a motorbike!

Worrying about the temps here though, seems we have a bubble of Mild air just over SE Essex, maybe we have the heating turned up to much

[Neilsouth]

Ok, Paul. PM resent.

Strange how the Beeb has suddenly started ramping up the snow potential after virtually ignoring it only a few hours ago. But yet still not bringing it down into Essex or Kent. Fingers crossed they have underplayed that...

They DID bring it down to essex and kent , but then removed it 4hrs later!. No wonder people have no faith in todays bbc met forecasters

Edited December 15, 2009 by neilsouth

[maidstone weather]

-3.9C currently, really shooting down fast now! Dewpoint -4.9C

[Ocean Transit]

Evening all

Left rather confused by the latest national forecast as it doesn't really match the 18Z run of the UKMO NAE model

Good agreement now that snow will turn increasingly to sleet and then rain across the home counties as the band moves south Wednesday afternoon, but signs on the latest run of turning back to sleet/snow on the back edge as cooler upper temperatures moves in from the North-East and catches up with the fragmenting band of precip around 18Z tomorrow.

The major issue tomorrow night will be ICE. The emphasis will focus on this on television forecasts tomorrow rather then snow.

Now... Thursday and Friday. Latest data suggests further North then originally forecasts (I think that is the reason for the major back-track on BBC forecasts since teatime.) At one point this evening I saw a forecast with snow all down the coast from Newcastle to Kent. Now it's much more coastal and over East Anglia rather then Kent. For the time being, I'm relying on the fax charts more so then the NAE model.

And going more NIMBY... I think Paul mentioned +ive temps in Essex. Still +0.4C here under high cloud. Official obs from Writtle to the West are -0.3C and Andrewsfield North of here is -0.7C.

Next discussions from the Ops centre at Exeter are due shortly after 2AM and the NAE update at 3AM. I will post a summary around then.

Edited December 15, 2009 by Ocean Transit

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

The North sea is why we still have that unsettled, let down feeling. I thought the cold spell started last night. You shouldn't get rain in a cold spell, so that means if we get rain the cold spell starts Thursday. Stealth, last minute downgrades must be due to the North sea having an influence the models don't account for, which also makes you wonder about whether on the coast the rest of the cold spell will be marginal when it there is ppn bearing clouds overhead. That big bath of warm water is the most logical reason. The trough tomorrow comes from the North Sea.

[Snow Queen one]

my temp is -3.2 really cold out there frost has stayed around all day in shaded areas just can't believe we have lost our snow potential.

[yamkin]

Temp has gone down to -2c

Sky News website are ramping it up

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/London-And-East-Of-England-Warned-Of-Possible-Heavy-Snow-By-Weekend-By-Met-Office-Prediction/Article/200912315500763?lpos=UK_News_First_Home_Article_Teaser_Region_2&lid=ARTICLE_15500763_London_And_East_Of_England_Warned_Of_Possible_Heavy_Snow_By_Weekend_By_Met_Office_Prediction

[Neilsouth]

New FAXS

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

Snow on saturday.... or was that sunday... or maybe next week... or maybe not for us but further north

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Oh i never do Nick LOL

They are about as good as an ashtray on a motorbike!

Worrying about the temps here though, seems we have a bubble of Mild air just over SE Essex, maybe we have the heating turned up to much

Hi Paul,

Several bubbles of mild Upper air to come through yet I think. I think it will be lunchtime Thursday before this really gets going. After that, from the charts I've looked at, to me it seems that we have a fantastic set of charts meaning that we'll almost all get quite a bit of the white stuff ( and I don't mean milk)

[Neilsouth]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/norfolk/content/webcams/webcam_reepham_webcam.shtml

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

New FAXS

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif

Snow on saturday.... or was that sunday... or maybe next week... or maybe not for us but further north

Cold and dry for all of our area, with the possible exception of the extreme North East Norfolk coast where there may be a passing shower.

Certainly cold though