East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion 2

[kold weather]

I wouldn't worry too much about tomorrow, the models have been pretty consistant with the set-up in terms of the precip side of things, if anything they have been slightly cooling things down as they get a better grip as to just how cold it'll be. Looks to me like the Thames Valley will probably sturggle to get any snow settling, areas further north have a better shot as do areas a little to the south but this is the first of probably at least 3-4 snow chances even if the most progressive set-up is correct.

You're right, that was a dumping, but an exceptional one of the kind we had not seen for 18 YEARS

Also, that was something that was CLEARLY forecast by the BBC, Met Office etc, advanced extreme warnings were issued 4 or 5 days earlier. It was not based on hopeful speculation.

I'm from SW Essex (right near Lakeside) and I've seen a decent amount of snowfalls over 3 inches ove rthe past 6-8 years, I admit they may not in general be quite as impressive as those that were seen in the colder winter phases we went through in the 60s and 80s but I can name at least Jan 2003 (I think), Feb 2003, Jan 2004, Feb 2005, (Maybe March 05 from a cold front) Feb 2007, April 2008 and Obviously Feb 2009...compared to some areas we've been quite lucky!

[snowking]

Just to add might be worth keeping an eye out on the suffolk/essex coast in the next hour or so

NW Radar showing a small stream of showers heading that way (WSW) from the north sea, fairly moderate in intensity too

Maybe an early surprise for a few of the lucky ones

SK

[Hammer]

Just to add might be worth keeping an eye out on the suffolk/essex coast in the next hour or so

NW Radar showing a small stream of showers heading that way (WSW) from the north sea, fairly moderate in intensity too

Maybe an early surprise for a few of the lucky ones

SK

Yes watching them on dutch radar, perhaps Clacton way.

[moogyboobles]

I've got my driving test Friday in Chelmsford! Wondering if it'll be snowed off!

[kold weather]

Will be interesting to see what that little train of showers does and whether they make it to the coast, could well give some snowfall to some that weren't expecting it, could be a small region that gets a light dusting as temps are more then cold enough.

Anyway I'd expect a period of an hour or two of snow at least but in these set-ups snow can last a good few hours longer then the models expect when the winds come off land as it does ahead of the system.

Tomorrow is the first out of probably 5 days where the snow risk looks decent...

[Tn9]

I've got my driving test Friday in Chelmsford! Wondering if it'll be snowed off!

Ask your driving school if you can take their Range Rover,just too be on the safe side :lol:

[snowking]

Looking at the radar now the two separate fronts are starting to become clearer as depicted on the FAX charts

http://cache.netweather.tv/fax/PPVE89.png

Looks at the moment that the occlusion is slightly weaker....however that should re-intensify as the sun comes up tomorrow as it heads into cambridgeshire and the home counties looking at various outputs

It should mean that we get a spell of purely sleet/snow though before we get the more general rain/sleet/snow mix as the warm front moves through

SK

Edited December 16, 2009 by snowking

[Paul Sherman]

Yeah although temps are still hovering around 1c the dewpoints are more than favourable at about -4c. Have seen that train of showers and looks to hit the coast somewhere between Clacton and Maldon. They are certainly shifting as well

Paul S

[Ocean Transit]

Finally can see the stars and temperature dropping. -0.2 deg. C.

[danm]

You're right, that was a dumping, but an exceptional one of the kind we had not seen for 18 YEARS

Also, that was something that was CLEARLY forecast by the BBC, Met Office etc, advanced extreme warnings were issued 4 or 5 days earlier. It was not based on hopeful speculation.

Actually, the event last Feb wasn't entirely accurately forecast. In the days leading up to it, they kept talking about the main snow event being the low pressure system moving up from northern France. What actually gave us in the London/South East area 95% of the accumulated snow during that spell was the Thames Streamer event of the Sunday night. They didn't forecast that happening until the day itself, and even then it turned out to be much more significant than they were forecasting. We had about 7/8 inches of snow in North East London from that streamer event, and then the next day the snow from France was very light and patchy, and ended up turning sleety and then to rain by the afternoon.

In an easterly flow, these snow events can suddenly pop up. I remember the Jan 2003 Thames Streamer event, which gave about 4 inches of snow, was only forecast the night before. Anything can happen, and we'll have to wait and see how it all plays out.

Edited December 16, 2009 by danm

[kold weather]

Yep Snowking, the models strengthen the front just as it passes through our region. I personally would hope given the output that we can keep the warm front to our north until we can get nightfall.

This has two benefits, firstly it keeps the snow going for longer and also means the colder air digs in that bit harder thanks to the night time cooling occuring.

Its worth noting the UKMO 12z run weakens the front to nearly nothing with just a small dusting in the south east...hopefully that doesn't happen, then the warm front comes down and brings rainfall. Worth watching for the chance of backedge snow as well...

[SMU]

By my estimation we are around 2 hours away before the PPN starts to effect the Norfolk coast-

things just starting to liven up on the radar-

Steve

[Paul Sherman]

Yes here too have 1/8 Cover Now with Stars above and temp of 0.1c - Dewpoint still -4c

If those showers make it - should be an added bonus before tomorrows general rain/sleet/snow mix

Paul S

*Steve those training showers are on a course for the Essex Coastline between Maldon and Ipswich ??

[snowking]

Yep Snowking, the models strengthen the front just as it passes through our region. I personally would hope given the output that we can keep the warm front to our north until we can get nightfall.

This has two benefits, firstly it keeps the snow going for longer and also means the colder air digs in that bit harder thanks to the night time cooling occuring.

Its worth noting the UKMO 12z run weakens the front to nearly nothing with just a small dusting in the south east...hopefully that doesn't happen, then the warm front comes down and brings rainfall. Worth watching for the chance of backedge snow as well...

A busy day ahead of us tomorrow radar, temperature and window watching....and they say blokes cant multi-task

Very much so seems as though the precip will be heading in a little earlier than forecast never the less the gap between the two fronts is broadening so as you say we can only hope tomorrow the warm front hangs back.....noticeable how the forecasts today have gone from 30 mins-1 hr of snow this afternoon to 1-2 hours of snow in this evenings forecasts with even the NMM having overcooked the temperatures and dews by about 2c today

The official start of winter for me tomorrow!

SK

Edit: Just seen steve's post - look at the growth beginning to take place out in the north sea on the eastern flank of the occlusion - hello mr convection our old friend

Edited December 16, 2009 by snowking

[SMU]

Yes here too have 1/8 Cover Now with Stars above and temp of 0.1c - Dewpoint still -4c

If those showers make it - should be an added bonus before tomorrows general rain/sleet/snow mix

Paul S

*Steve those training showers are on a course for the Essex Coastline between Maldon and Ipswich ??

yes- hopefully they will recurve through bexleyheath...

really exciting times ahead-

Steve

[Tn9]

Sorry to be off topic,but we know the yanks dont muck about with their storms,be it thunder or snow,this storm last week dumped huge amounts in a big area,makes us looking for showers a bit humbling really :lol:

As a deep freeze settled over much of the central and western United States, snow sat on the surface, left over from a massive storm that made its way across the country. Acquired December 9, 2009, this image combines observations by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites. In the mountainous western states, the surface appears as a patchwork of white and brown, especially in Nevada. Large areas in Idaho, California, Arizona and New Mexico appear completely snow free. Arizona’s Grand Canyon carves an earth-toned path through an otherwise snowy landscape. East of the Rocky Mountains—the difference in terrain is most obvious in Colorado—the snow cover is more uniform as it rests on mostly flat land. Snow cover stretches from Kansas northward to the Dakotas.

[wellington boot]

Yep Snowking, the models strengthen the front just as it passes through our region. I personally would hope given the output that we can keep the warm front to our north until we can get nightfall.

This has two benefits, firstly it keeps the snow going for longer and also means the colder air digs in that bit harder thanks to the night time cooling occuring.

Its worth noting the UKMO 12z run weakens the front to nearly nothing with just a small dusting in the south east...hopefully that doesn't happen, then the warm front comes down and brings rainfall. Worth watching for the chance of backedge snow as well...

Hang on, which front are you talking about? I can't see any weakened fronts bringing dustings in the south east on the ukmo!?

ukmo - ppn - 36

ukmo - ppn - 42

ukmo - ppn - 60

Those are some nice blues in the south eastern corner.

Edited December 16, 2009 by wellington boot

[kold weather]

Showers still coming down the North Sea, if I didn't have an early morning run I'd be very interested to see how close they get to my location, some are in for a surprise, granted they are fairly small in terms of spacial coverage.

Hopefully the GFS is right about the front not weakening too much as the UKMO has the warm front becoming by far the stronger of the two and by the time that comes down temps are fairly unfavourable for snow. Probably a wait and see game, the front looks a little patchy at the moment mind you so maybe a little hit and miss before the stronger warm front comes through and it likely turns to sleet and rain for most places bar maybe the very lucky ones!

[Ocean Transit]

About 45 minutes until the next update from Exeter then I'll head to bed me thinks

Temperature continuing to drop, although more sharply now. -0.7 deg. C. Can see Bradwell power station in the distance lit up from the window. Normally on a Easterly when it disappears snow is rolling in

Edited December 16, 2009 by Ocean Transit

[Tn9]

yes- hopefully they will recurve through bexleyheath...

really exciting times ahead-

Steve

Sheerness,isle of Sheppy,i reckon

[kold weather]

Hang on, which front are you talking about? I can't see any weakened fronts bringing dustings in the south east on the ukmo!?

ukmo - ppn - 36

ukmo - ppn - 42

ukmo - ppn - 60

Those are some nice blues in the south eastern corner.

Yep but thats all associated with the warm front which will be in the main rain unless the timing of it changes...the front thats ahead of the main warm front is the one that is likely to give snow, the models don't do much with it but you never know, I'd have thought as long as the first front doesn't fizzle out totally odds are pretty decent for snow.

[Met4Cast]

Sheerness,isle of Sheppy,i reckon

I'm in the Isle of Grain so I'm keeping a very close eye on these showers, I was going to head off to bed but decided to check the radar before I did, wish I hadn't now, I'm not going to be able to go to bed until I see whether these showers hit me or not, we could have a potential streamer developing here me thinks.

[wellington boot]

Yep but thats all associated with the warm front which will be in the main rain unless the timing of it changes...the front thats ahead of the main warm front is the one that is likely to give snow, the models don't do much with it but you never know, I'd have thought as long as the first front doesn't fizzle out totally odds are pretty decent for snow.

Ok I think I'm just being more optimistic and more south-east minded than you are. I'm only looking at the south east here, since you were mentioning the front fizzling out in the far se. And down here, I only see one period where we lose the cold air, which is tomorrow evening. I'm hoping that the fact that it will be dark from 4 oclock onwards, along with the icy temps of today and yesterday and the lying frost and so on, plus any evaporative cooling which might take place if the snow really gets going, will make snow out of that band of ppn. Possibly too optimistic I know.

[Tn9]

About 45 minutes until the next update from Exeter then I'll head to bed me thinks

Temperature continuing to drop, although more sharply now. -0.7 deg. C. Can see Bradwell power station in the distance lit up from the window. Normally on a Easterly when it disappears snow is rolling in

Yea me too ,i used to do that too,from where i lived in Chatham as a kid ,i could see Kingsnorth power station to the NNE of me and when i could not see the lights and the little flashing red light on the chimney anymore you knew another shower was on its way lol

[wellington boot]

By my estimation we are around 2 hours away before the PPN starts to effect the Norfolk coast-

things just starting to liven up on the radar-

Steve

You're surely not expecting it to start pushing through for real yet are you? The models suggest that will happen into and through tomorrow.