East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion 2

[Tn9]

I'm in the Isle of Grain so I'm keeping a very close eye on these showers, I was going to head off to bed but decided to check the radar before I did, wish I hadn't now, I'm not going to be able to go to bed until I see whether these showers hit me or not, we could have a potential streamer developing here me thinks.

Blimey,you will only need an inch out there and thats you cut off lol,cor it dont arf get bleak

[kold weather]

Ok I think I'm just being more optimistic and more south-east minded than you are. I'm only looking at the south east here, since you were mentioning the front fizzling out in the far se. And down here, I only see one period where we lose the cold air, which is tomorrow evening. I'm hoping that the fact that it will be dark from 4 oclock onwards, along with the icy temps of today and yesterday and the lying frost and so on, plus any evaporative cooling which might take place if the snow really gets going, will make snow out of that band of ppn. Possibly too optimistic I know.

I think the most likely situation for all of us will be snow on the leading edge of the warm front (as well as whatever is left of the first front) then it turns readily back to sleet and rain as the warm front passes through and the system develops stronger and develops a more noteable 'warm sector' with dew points that are very much marginal indeed.

Saying all that what tends to happen is the snow hangs on for a little longer then the models are expecting it to, very much a case of wait and see with this one!

[Met4Cast]

Blimey,you will only need an inch out there and thats you cut off lol,cor it dont arf get bleak

Haha I know. I fear it could be a few hours before it reaches our shores, and knowing my luck if I go to bed it'll hit here, but if I stay up it'll miss, its my day off tomorrow anyway so it doesn't matter too much.

[Sno' problem]

Are you in Essex or Chichester Kold? Or is there a Chichester in Essex I have never heard of? (Not being rude by the way, just slightly baffled)

The ppn heading towards the Thames Estuary is about to hit land, anyone there to report?

Edited December 16, 2009 by Sno' problem

[Ocean Transit]

LONDON/STANSTED EGSS 152258Z 1600/1706 VRB03KT 6000 BKN020 BECMG 1600/1603 4000 BR PROB30 1603/1609 0300 FZFG BKN001 BECMG 1609/1612 -RASN -SN BKN006 TEMPO 1612/1624 BKN004 PROB30 TEMPO 1612/1619 1000 SN BKN001 BECMG 1616/1619 RADZ

Rather messy, a bit of everything thrown in

[Met4Cast]

If you run through tomorrows weather on the MO site

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_weather.html

It shows it staying as snow and not really turning to rain

[SMU]

If you run through tomorrows weather on the MO site

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_weather.html

It shows it staying as snow and not really turning to rain

where are you in north kent?

Steve

[Ocean Transit]

Hot off the press...

FAUK18 EGRR 160200

VALID DEC 16/0300Z TO 16/0900Z.

SE ENGLAND AND E ANGLIA: GEN FINE BUT WITH ISOL FZFG PATCHES AND BKN

ST AT FIRST. BECMG BKN TO OVC STSC, AND BKN LYR AC, WITH OCNL RASN

(ISOL SN) SPREADING S DURING THE MORNING WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS

LIKELY. SMALL RISK OF EMBD CB AND TS SEA COT FAR E ENGLAND. SN WILL

DIE OUT LATER, WITH EXTENSIVE BR AND LOW CLD DEVELOPING. VIS GEN

GOOD AT FIRST, BECMG POOR TO VERY POOR IN SN LATER, AND VERY POOR IN

HILL FG THROUGHOUT.

Can't publish Thursday night's charts for copyright reasons but excellent prospects for Thursday night (EA/SE) from the UKMO. 5CM for a many Eastern parts of Kent and Essex. Details will change no doubt but looking good into the London area as well as East Anglia.

Expect routine advisories from the UKMO around 11AM this morning for Thursday night into Friday

(Saturday not looking so good with higher threat of rain/drizzle - forget about that for the time being as it will most likely change!)

Happy days...

Edited December 16, 2009 by Ocean Transit

[Met4Cast]

where are you in north kent?

Steve

Isle of Grain, right on the N Kent coast, I'm not really expecting much in the way of snow tomorrow, I think probably sleet at best considering I'm on the coast

[Sno' problem]

Can't publish Thursday night's charts for copyright reasons but excellent prospects for Thursday night (EA/SE) from the UKMO. 5CM for a many Eastern parts of Kent and Essex. Details will change no doubt but looking good into the London area as well as East Anglia.

Happy days...

Thanks for that OT, much appreciated!

Isle of Grain, right on the N Kent coast, I'm not really expecting much in the way of snow tomorrow, I think probably sleet at best considering I'm on the coast

There is a 'finger' of ppn heading right towards you now, should (famous last words) be with you soon. Intrigued to know what it falls as if it does get there.

Edited December 16, 2009 by Sno' problem

[Met4Cast]

There is a 'finger' of ppn heading right towards you now, should (famous last words) be with you soon. Intrigued to know what it falls as if it does get there.

Yeah I've been watching that for the last 2 hours haha, its getting quite close now although it does seem to be stalling slightly

The Netweather radar says that its snow, although how accurate that is I don't know. Air temperature is -3.2c and Dew Points are at -4c, so its certainly cold enough for it to be falling as snow.

[Sno' problem]

The Netweather radar says that its snow, although how accurate that is I don't know. Air temperature is -3.2c and Dew Points are at -4c, so its certainly cold enough for it to be falling as snow.

Exactly what I was thinking. It surely has to fall as snow, though it would be handy if the ppn picked up in intensity when it hits land, might give us an idea of how things will pan out for us in the next few days.

There does seem to be a load of anaprop in the Thames Estuary and SW of Ipswich, which may be confusing things, but that band of ppn is definitely there, so must hit land soon.

Edited December 16, 2009 by Sno' problem

[Met4Cast]

Exactly what I was thinking. It surely has to fall as snow, though it would be handy if the ppn picked up in intensity when it hits land, might give us an idea of how things will pan out for us in the next few days.

Yeah, cloud seems to be getting a little thicker now. I really want to sleep

[Sno' problem]

Yeah, cloud seems to be getting a little thicker now. I really want to sleep

I have even less reason to be watching the radar right now, not a chance of a flake here in the next few hours, but radar watching is addictive, and gives me a chance to see how things develop real time, so I know for the future.

My knowledge is nothing compared to many of the other people on this site, but when it comes to radar watching/forecasting, I am getting pretty handy.

Anyway, that ppn is holding out in the estuary right now, gonna crash.

Good luck for the coming days everyone!

Edited December 16, 2009 by Sno' problem

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

I have even less reason to be watching the radar right now, not a chance of a flake here in the next few hours, but radar watching is addictive, and gives me a chance to see how things develop real time, so I know for the future.

My knowledge is nothing compared to many of the other people on this site, but when it comes to radar watching/forecasting, I am getting pretty handy.

Hi there weather people, well well I'm here again I'm not a weather enthusiast like you all but when it comes to snow I live it. Anyway I found this forum just before the Snow last February and I must say you guys got it right that time and I sure hope you are right this time, exciting winter ahead I hope. I'm in Hertford and it looks very very cold outside like I said I'm not a weather person any 1 give me info if Hertford can expect Snow in the next few days I would appreciate that, you guys keep up the good work. I can't sleep because of the prospect of Snow exactly what I was doing last February looking out the window and I saw the first flake around 1 a.m. that time and we got about 14 cm heavy snow. Hope we can expect more of that this Winter, my I'm just like a little kid when it comes to Snow.

[Norfolk_N_chance]

another winter and another time i've lost my netweather sign in details so im on i.d number 3 LOL.

thought i would be helpful and post a link to the roadside weather stations that local council's and the highway agency use.

My link

Im in north norfolk, only 6 miles from the weatherstation on the a148 at harpley.

hoping to do very well over the next few days, im lucky enough to be in one of the highest parts of norfolk ( we call it high LOL)

from what everybody has been saying, forums, metoffice, bbc etc etc, im guessing that east anglia is a favoured spot for snow over the next few days.

but can someone clarify something for me, are there parts of norfolk that are likely to get the 5-10cm of snow the met office are forecasting??? past experience tells me that whenever the met/bbc put weather warnings out for snow we normally end of with sweet f.a.

thank you

[SMU]

Looks like are firming up on snow potential now-

Heres my forecast of whats happening snow wise-

upgrade on the squeeze & angle of isobars-

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-0-48.png?0

Apart from tomorrow- thursday is the real fun & games-

I would say the Window for Lincs / EA norfolk is open Thurs 10pm until Friday 6pm - 24 hours ( a little convective stuff either side of this)

@ Peak intensity you can have heavy snow ~ 1 inch per hour-

Here is my snowfall MAX estimate PRE saturday-

8 inches

Suffolk, Essex , Kent & London ( ESP NE/E/SE) Slightly shorter window for convective stuff- although the system itself will have snow within it-

I guess from around 00z Thurs until 12pm Friday- ( maybe an extension either side ) - I see a good rash of heavy showers blending into longer spells of snow-

I DONT SEE A THAMES SNOW STREAMER DEVELOPING as this stage-

The most accute angle & flow we get is for around 3HRS-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs481.gif

Here is my MAX snowfall estimate PRE Saturday

7 Inches ( central - East Kent)- 2-6 elsewhere

All other counties on the peripheries of the aforementioned places will see snow- although the intensity & frequency will not be as great

1-3 inches-

This is all pre Sat- IF the evolution goes as planned we get another GENERAL 2-3 inches over the weekend-

Do the math wherever you live......Ice days frid onwards-

The 00z UKMO DOES give the SE a chance of a streamer due to the flatter flow-

Every model is upgrading the intensity of the Easterly both in wind, PPN & depth of temp- in

fact the ensemble MEAN is at -11c which aint far off what they predicted around 7 days ago.......

If you want a streamer hope the developing shortwave at 42 cuts south of london- if it goes west we dont get a flat easterly run- UKMO-

Steve

Edited December 16, 2009 by Steve Murr

[wellington boot]

I'm hoping that shortwave swinging through the south east into thursday night does something similar to march 2005, when we got 7 inches here near tunbridge wells. streamer not so helpful.

the models arent backing down, as you say, so at this point it is really a question of how much rather than if. We havent had this kind of thing in December recently - I think it will tell us a lot about the difference sea temps make. Now we have weak sun and warm sea - previously it has always been the other way round, so to speak.

[winterfreak]

It's still looking good for snowfall in our neck of the woods then? Model output seems to suggest we may have rain

Edited December 16, 2009 by winterfreak

[liltbrockie]

Well the GFS is saying about -1C temps in surrey... i have just driven to work and its been about -6C!

[yamkin]

Temps in Shirley, Croydon is a very freezing --4c

Edited December 16, 2009 by yamkin

[snowbob]

so the threat for snow in surrey for thurs has completely gone on the latest forecast. has it all changed overnight?

[snowspotter]

Not a bad start to the cold spell -6.3c here

[liltbrockie]

Maybe the dewpoints have been over estimated and it will snow later today!

[Neilsouth]

-2.9c here , oh and good morning!