Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 3

[LomondSnowstorm]

Tomorrow is going to be very interesting. Western areas finally progged to see frequent snow showers - but the interest for us in the east is exactly how well these get blown inland. I can think of many instances recently with rain showers forecast only for the widely spreading west across the central belt. A morning of radar watching ...

[/ quote]

Very much so. It looks possible that quite a few showers will make it east, especially later in the day when the wind swings to more of a westerly for central areas. The Met Office do mention it in their forecast for eastern areas tomorrow so I think it could be quite an interesting day. I for one prefer convective snow showers to frontal snow as there is much less certainty and more scope for upgrades, like Thursday's event. Also, with most frontal snow you end up with rain at some point spoiling the snowfall, or the mild air moving in straight after, while with convective situations snow can stick around for longer. In any case, it looks like those in western areas will finally see some significant snowfall tomorrow, unless the curse of the Met Office warning comes into play!! Oh, and well done to those in the Western Isles who appear to be getting a better dumping from this evening's showers than most people have had from an easterly and a band of frontal snow from the north!! Minima watching tonight will be very interesting, I reckon, though records are not under threat just yet.

LS

[Snowplough33]

Tomorrow is going to be very interesting. Western areas finally progged to see frequent snow showers - but the interest for us in the east is exactly how well these get blown inland. I can think of many instances recently with rain showers forecast only for the widely spreading west across the central belt. A morning of radar watching ...

[/ quote]

Very much so. It looks possible that quite a few showers will make it east, especially later in the day when the wind swings to more of a westerly for central areas. The Met Office do mention it in their forecast for eastern areas tomorrow so I think it could be quite an interesting day. I for one prefer convective snow showers to frontal snow as there is much less certainty and more scope for upgrades, like Thursday's event. Also, with most frontal snow you end up with rain at some point spoiling the snowfall, or the mild air moving in straight after, while with convective situations snow can stick around for longer. In any case, it looks like those in western areas will finally see some significant snowfall tomorrow, unless the curse of the Met Office warning comes into play!! Oh, and well done to those in the Western Isles who appear to be getting a better dumping from this evening's showers than most people have had from an easterly and a band of frontal snow from the north!! Minima watching tonight will be very interesting, I reckon, though records are not under threat just yet.

LS

I take from this that you fairy sure that we will get a run of Westerly winds? Going into Sunday night and Monday, what do you expect the wind to do and greatest snowfall risk to be?

[snow1975]

Clear skies, temp -5C and dropping.

[Polar Gael]

Hmmm, the frontal snow was good while it lasted - but it moved through speedily.

Still, at least we have a covering and it's icing up nicely this evening.

Should be a cold one overnight before some beefy showers give us a bit more to play with tomorrow and Monday.

ECM & GFS 12Z pointing towards the cold hanging on until at least Christmas - very reminiscent of old school winters.

After that, well it's all FI, isn't it... :lol:

Edited December 19, 2009 by Polar Gael

[LomondSnowstorm]

ame='LomondSnowstorm' date='19 December 2009 - 18:53 ' timestamp='1261248839' post='1655237']

I take from this that you fairy sure that we will get a run of Westerly winds? Going into Sunday night and Monday, what do you expect the wind to do and greatest snowfall risk to be?

It does look like we'll have westerlies for a time as the low pushes south. Firstly, the GFS at 6pm tomorrow showing the low pushing further southwest, bringing westerlies to central areas:

The UKMO is quite different even at this range, bringing the low further south earlier, meaning the winds begin to turn to an easterly and the snow risk transfers to the East of Scotland by tomorrow evening:

In terms of snowfall risk, I think the northwest of Scotland, including all of the Hebrides, Mull etc. has to be favoured tomorrow, as well as Glasgow, Renfrewshire, Ayrshire etc and possibly the central Highlands and Morayshire. There is a significant, though lesser, risk of the showers moving across the central belt as well, particularly later in the day. Since showers are so hard to predict, some places mentioned will see much more snow than others, though places on the western side of the Highlands and central and western lowland areas should see most. Accumulations are possible almost anywhere, with some favoured lowland areas receiving 6 inches, with 2-4 inches quite widely in the west. Tomorrow night, the risk appears to shift to the east of Scotland, but again this will be very much the case of radar watching close to the time. Beyond that, it's precipitation FI!!

Edited December 19, 2009 by LomondSnowstorm

[Guest]

Well that's my kids in bed after a very rumbunctious tea-time and bath-time. What a rammy. Nothing beats having wee kids (5 & a half and 18mnths old )

Now it's beer time and cold/snow watch time. Bring it on!!!

Where's the showers?? :lol:

Who can say?! it's just going to keep getting colder for a wee while yet...

The low dew points are outstanding too currently 0º/-5ºC here :lol:

That's going to give quite a frost. Although I remember one of the really hot days in summer here the temp was something silly like 26C while the dew point was -2C....seriously, how weird is that??

In terms of snowfall risk, I think the northwest of Scotland, including all of the Hebrides, Mull etc. has to be favoured tomorrow, as well as Glasgow, Renfrewshire, Ayrshire etc and possibly the central Highlands and Morayshire.

Don't forget our sorry bottoms in Inverclyde, the wee made up council area to the NW of Renfrewshire and to the direct N of Ayrshire :lol:

[Mondy]

-5.7c and tumbling :lol:

[Methuselah]

Snow showers have arrived!!! :lol:

[LomondSnowstorm]

Don't forget our sorry bottoms in Inverclyde, the wee made up council area to the NW of Renfrewshire and to the direct N of Ayrshire

I really shouldn't forget Inverclyde, half my family is from Gourock! I think if you're not right on the coast you should do fine for snowfall tomorrow. The only place I'm going to say with any certainty that won't see snow showers tomorrow daytime is Brechin - south of the grampians, east of the Perthshire hills and far from the sea - what chance does it have from a WNWesterly ?

Edited December 19, 2009 by LomondSnowstorm

[Snowplough33]

It does look like we'll have westerlies for a time as the low pushes south. Firstly, the GFS at 6pm tomorrow showing the low pushing further southwest, bringing westerlies to central areas:

The UKMO is quite different even at this range, bringing the low further south earlier, meaning the winds begin to turn to an easterly and the snow risk transfers to the East of Scotland by tomorrow evening:

In terms of snowfall risk, I think the northwest of Scotland, including all of the Hebrides, Mull etc. has to be favoured tomorrow, as well as Glasgow, Renfrewshire, Ayrshire etc and possibly the central Highlands and Morayshire. There is a significant, though lesser, risk of the showers moving across the central belt as well, particularly later in the day. Since showers are so hard to predict, some places mentioned will see much more snow than others, though places on the western side of the Highlands and central and western lowland areas should see most. Accumulations are possible almost anywhere, with some favoured lowland areas receiving 6 inches, with 2-4 inches quite widely in the west. Tomorrow night, the risk appears to shift to the east of Scotland, but again this will be very much the case of radar watching close to the time. Beyond that, it's precipitation FI!!

I agree with your thoughts, but I am quite surprised that in the short range they are not agreed on the track of the Low. I guess that this is the reason on Beeb 24 weather they have the whole of Scotland snowing on Monday, as they are also unsure of the track. Also MO warning for Monday covers all areas for the same reason. Will be intresting times for us on the east side....wind direction could make the differance of a few inches. Here's hoping.

[Polarlow]

I really shouldn't forget Inverclyde, half my family is from Gourock! I think if you're not right on the coast you should do fine for snowfall tomorrow. The only place I'm going to say with any certainty that won't see snow showers tomorrow daytime is Brechin - south of the grampians, east of the Perthshire hills and far from the sea - what chance does it have from a WNWesterly ?

Absolutely chucking it doon we sna` here in the Glebe !!!!!

Currently -4.1c

Edited December 19, 2009 by Polarlow

[NorthernRab]

Snow showers have arrived!!!

Aye Pete, -5'C with a dewpoint of -6'C in the wee gentle snow shower we just had. Certainly any of the snow that is on its way across Siorrachd Rois will be sticking around <_<

[skifreak]

hi, do you have a link to those weather stations?

The Loch Morlich and lower ski area and mid-station weather station on CairnGorm are on this page, with links to wind/temp graphs over the past 48hrs, plus tabular data as well:

http://www.winterhighland.info/snowreports/index.php?resort=cg

Summit AWS (Meto):http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/city?&IP=86.176.133.233&3&PRG=detail&TIME=std&LANG=en&WMO=03065&ART=temperatur&LEVEL=140

Summit AWS (HW Uni): http://www.phy.hw.ac.uk/resrev/weather.htm (not real time atm)

Temp is starting to climb a bit having bottomed out at -10.5c on the lower slopes, maybe some cloud coming in meaning the snow showers might make it to the Cairngorms overnight? <_<

[Snowlover2]

Absolutely chucking it doon we sna` here in the Glebe !!!!!

Currently -4.1c

-4.1°C here too with a windchill temp of -8.0°C

[LomondSnowstorm]

Absolutely chucking it doon we sna` here in the Glebe !!!!!

Currently -4.1c

Either the netweather radar is broken or someone's telling porkies!!

Only -2.2C here, though Cupar tends to do better out of 'frost situations' anyway .

I wonder if your name sake might make an impromptu appearance in the next day or two. Seems a bit unlikely but you never know I suppose. What chaos would that bring to the Met Office I wonder??

LS

[Hairy Celt]

Snow showers coming in now, temp -2, dp -4. A bit nippy out.

Look out for elderly neighbours tomorrow, a few minutes checking that they've no problems with access, heating, pipes, etc. will be well spent.

[Snowlover2]

Snow showers coming in now, temp -2, dp -4. A bit nippy out.

Look out for elderly neighbours tomorrow, a few minutes checking that they've no problems with access, heating, pipes, etc. will be well spent.

Its now -4.4

[Stuart]

Snow showers here at last

[Snowlover2]

Its now -4.4

Tumbling fast now -4.6

[snowmess]

-4.6°C at the moment, with Dew Point at -8.9°C :shok:B)

Edit: -4.7°C now...

Weather Station

Edited December 19, 2009 by snowmess

[Zenarcher]

Hi all,

Over the last hour there I went out around the island and took the camera and recorded heavy hail, sleet and snow showers bashing against the car never seen anything like it. Will try to post up the video on youtube later. There's a very high hill to get over to get back to the town where I live and on the way up a few cars have got stuck luckily I made it ok. Very dangerous roads here.

Edited December 19, 2009 by weathermaster

[Snowlover2]

-4.6°C at the moment, with Dew Point at -8.9°C

Lol SNAP. where are you?

[Guest]

I really shouldn't forget Inverclyde, half my family is from Gourock!

Half of MrsCatch's family is from Greenock. Do you have the saying in your family that anything squinty is "all up and down like Gourock"??

Temps of -3C and dew point of -7C at Glasgow Airport, one of my nearest weather stations...very very icy outside

'mon the snow showers

Edit: I'm about 10 miles inland ESEE from Gourock, behind hills which are +1000ft.....my trusty snow machine in a NWly.... :)

Edited December 19, 2009 by CatchMyDrift

[Snowlover2]

-4.6°C at the moment, with Dew Point at -8.9°C

Edit: -4.7°C now...

Weather Station

same one im using lol

[Mondy]

OT, but festive all the same :-)

http://ak.imgag.com/imgag/product/preview/flash/pdShell.swf?ihost=http://ak.imgag.com/imgag&brandldrPath=/product/full/el/&cardNum=/product/full/ap/3173936/graphic1

-5.9c here now