3 Counties & E Anglia Cold Spell Discussion

[Southernman]

I see the areas have been split. What counties are with what topic please?

[Bolton67]

Whats wrong with the north?

It's full of people from Manchester

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Right i've had a look at the models and I have a rough idea of what will happen. Im sure everyone is familiar with the Met O radar and I shall use this as a guide for the intensity of the snowfall.

The fun and games begin during Saturday evening. Now intially for much of Saturday evening/sunday morning our precitation is going to be mainly light (blues on Met O radar). Now the reason the SE could see heavier snowfall is due to the ENE,ly flow enhancing the snowfall, although the NAE has backed off somewhat of heavy snow in the SE. Now during Sunday afternoon the wind veers to the E and what the models are suggesting is the heavier snow moves N. This again is due to the winds veering E,ly meaning the snowfall is enhanced due to the long fetch across the sea. Now the 18Z actually moves this snow as far N as N England but based on all the runs I have seen our region looks likely to see heavy snow. This heavy snow is likely to continue into Sunday night before we see this becoming lighter. Again the reason for this is due to the winds veering SE,ly so we lose the effects of the N sea.

Overall very difficult to predict snowfall amounts but this period does look likely to bring persistant snow. Now even if it falls at 1cm an hr the fact that we could see 24/36 hrs of snow makes large snowfall amounts possible. I do feel that snowfall amount could vary hugely across the region because whilst some are experiencing blue patches on the radar others could see spells of green. Im afraid its a case of radar watching.

I will finally add that the NAE/GFS indicate rather widespread light snow tomorrow contrary to the BBC forecasts.

Thankyou very much, more confident now than just a dusing of Snow would be happy with a top up or more I still hope. Radar at the ready.

[ickledoozer]

It was the 'just to confuse things more' bit

Well when I have I ever been simple? actually, don't answer that!!

Looks like the Beeb have added a few more white bits onto their graphics for Sunday and they are over our heads!! woo!

Edited January 8, 2010 by ickledoozer

[meltz!]

Great Analysis Dave!

One thing you left off though - The chance of Serious Drifting in areas exposed to the Strong Easterly wind, this could be more hazardous than the 15-20cm

seroiusly? as far as south beds?

[Macey]

Good shower approaching Northants soon

Looks promising

[Mrsf16]

It's full of people from Manchester

And they've got too much snow for our liking!! hahahah

[janetmh71]

stopped snowing now . . got about 9 minutes most of which was very light but the road is now white again

Janet

[Snow Obsession]

Thanks TEITS! That sounds a lot more promising than Rob's forecast - I usually enjoy his forecasts but that was not as good as usual. Light snow - pah! How picky we've become! LOL

[Bolton67]

And they've got too much snow for our liking!! hahahah

25CM in my old town

[TEITS]

I will just add that come tomorrow the period when we could see heavier snow will come in the range of the NMM, NAE models.

If the GFS runs are correct including the UKMO then expect the BBC tomorrow night to include our region for heavy snow on Sunday afternoon/night.

Rather simply put our snow gets a turbo boost due to the winds changing from ENE,ly to E,ly. The cold upper temps spreading across the N Sea on the E,ly enhances the precip.

[simon65]

leighton buzzard ..... snow .......light ........

Current data for Linslade

08 January 2010 22:40:36

Temperature (°C):

Current -1.6

Trend (per hour) +0.3

Average today -2.4

Wind chill -3.9

Humidex -4.5

Dew Point -3.2

Rel Humidity 89%

Wind (mph):

Current Gust 9.2 NE

Average Speed 3.8 NNW

Pressure (mb):

Current 1025.2

Trend (per hour) -0.1

Edited January 8, 2010 by simon65

[Snow Obsession]

seroiusly? as far as south beds?

LOL again

[meltz!]

I will just add that come tomorrow the period when we could see heavier snow will come in the range of the NMM, NAE models.

If the GFS runs are correct including the UKMO then expect the BBC tomorrow night to include our region for heavy snow on Sunday afternoon/night.

Rather simply put our snow gets a turbo boost due to the winds changing from ENE,ly to E,ly. The cold upper temps spreading across the N Sea on the E,ly enhances the precip.

cheers teits

as poeple have already mentioned its great to have your input on this thread and most of the time you have been spot on............... been following it for three years now............ not that im any good at reading the models!!! lol

[Long haul to mild]

I see the areas have been split. What counties are with what topic please?

Beds, Bucks, Cambs, Norfolk, Peterb, Northants, Herts are on this thread.

However, I am from Suffolk and I am squatting in this thread as I feel more at home here.......(although I am keeping an eye on the SE one too in case any others from this neck of the woods post in there!)

Edited January 8, 2010 by Chalk Serpent

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Thanks TEITS! That sounds a lot more promising than Rob's forecast - I usually enjoy his forecasts but that was not as good as usual. Light snow - pah! How picky we've become! LOL

Now we have to remember that light Snow could mean MORE in the trend of present forecasting and with it being persistent it could be a good few cm also the wind taking into consideration aswell, what ever happened to the forecasters saying at the end and x could see a dusting how things have changed recently :)

[Bolton67]

Looks promising

Very promising

If they can keep that intensity we will have a nice 30 Min's

[TEITS]

Great Analysis Dave!

One thing you left off though - The chance of Serious Drifting in areas exposed to the Strong Easterly wind, this could be more hazardous than the 15-20cm

Cheers Paul and thats a very good point mate.

Im a little cautious at the moment in predicting snowfall amounts due to the NMM, NAE being out of range although the last frame of the NAE does indicate the precip increasing further N.

[ickledoozer]

Posted earlier that my parents are still here from Cornwall from three weeks ago! I actually live next door to Heathrow and spent most of my free time in Weymouth until I discovered Norfolk about 2 1/2 years ago! When I leave work on a Friday, workmates ask me where I am off to and my brain crashes! I sort of make my mind up after i've been driving for an hour or two and have reached the M25! Norfolk is the best though. I've spent over 20 years travelling for work and this region is the best for seasons. Most snow i've ever seen at 43 years old, my 10yo has seen more than I had in my mid-twenties having grown up in Cornwall

It is lovely to find somewhere that you feel you belong. I have worked in a lot of places in the UK but I'm a northern girl at heart even though I have technically never lived there!! It's where I always go when things get tough and its where I feel safest. I have never really been to Norfolk, except on the Broads and that was an exceptional summer weatherwise.

[meltz!]

LOL again

lol yes mrs m. my spelling would get see me written in red by it if i was at school!!!

drinking red wine while i read this looking out window!!

[hire17]

I will just add that come tomorrow the period when we could see heavier snow will come in the range of the NMM, NAE models.

If the GFS runs are correct including the UKMO then expect the BBC tomorrow night to include our region for heavy snow on Sunday afternoon/night.

Rather simply put our snow gets a turbo boost due to the winds changing from ENE,ly to E,ly. The cold upper temps spreading across the N Sea on the E,ly enhances the precip.

TEITS. Is NAE found under a subscription site? I've seen it mentioned often and with excellent results according to feedback on NW

[ickledoozer]

It's full of people from Manchester

Oye Bolton Boy!!!

i'm trying to stay on topic here, I don't like being told off!

Edited January 8, 2010 by ickledoozer

[stromanis]

SNOWING :)

Thanks for the great post Dave.

[Snowangel-MK]

I will just add that come tomorrow the period when we could see heavier snow will come in the range of the NMM, NAE models.

If the GFS runs are correct including the UKMO then expect the BBC tomorrow night to include our region for heavy snow on Sunday afternoon/night.

Rather simply put our snow gets a turbo boost due to the winds changing from ENE,ly to E,ly. The cold upper temps spreading across the N Sea on the E,ly enhances the precip.

Thanks TEITS - fingers crossed for another no school 'SNOW' day on Monday then ?

[Bolton67]

Oye Bolton Boy!!!