South West England Cold Spell Discussion

[03jtrickey]

Quote from John Holmes on the Model Thread:

"I'll no doubt be as popular as a skunk in a very small bag but it has to be said. I've just posted this in the Yorks etc thread as there seems a lack of realism in there also-no doubt in the other regional threads.

I find some of the comments on this regional thread and the model thread pretty amusing.

What we have this morning was correctly predicted about 5 days ago. The deep cold going and being replaced by +ve daytime temperatures, slight precip and that of sleet or at best wet snow, frost unlikely after late Saturday evening.

What have we got-precisely that-so why the consternation?

I've plotted outputs from Extra and NMM daily and its not done at all badly-it has failed to get the minimum values I've had but other than that its done okay.

I suggest a closer and more objective look at the models for some people and an acceptance that the various models will show slightly different end solutions. The trick is being objective and plotting a 'middle' path. That way there is less chance of thinking something is going to happen when the reality is its not going to.

As to what is likely through the latter end of the week then its not going to get mild anywhere other than the far SW. Will the cold return, whatever that means. If you mean the bitter cold with -12C 850's, then that currently looks unlikely as there is no source of such cold air. That is not to say it cannot develop as a result of the weather most of Europe and Scandinavia has experienced for the past 7-14 days-it can. In the meantime we have to live with a more traditional British winter scene-heavy snow in places, especially over high ground with a more wintry mix for southern lower lying areas and the lovely fluffy snow many of us had for several days becoming rather slushy by day and horribly icy when we get an overnight frost.

I'll go now before I get lynched!"

I think this is a really good post.

Temps getting above freezing today - I think any snow from now on is going to become increasingly wet, and a slow thaw by day probably meaning the existing snowcover will turn messier as the week goes on. Still the possibility of some wet snow moving in from the SW Tues/Weds. What I've liked about this winter so far is that the snow hasn't melted during the day. That's probably about to change...

Edited January 10, 2010 by 03jtrickey

[Wilxy]

I cant see much exciting weather happening in the south now looks like becoming a bit milder aswel next week but we will see.

[dogs32]

i didnt expect this today,,,no this rate

[rowieboyz]

snowing here, a cm or 2 top up by the looks of it.

how much snow are we expecting? i thought the worst was going north? according to the bbc forecast.

jase

[snow go zone]

We are however winning one of the cold winter contests at the moment apart from lack of snow, A BIG ROUND OF APPLAUSE PLEASE FOR THE COUNTY WITH THE MOST GRIT STILL!!

Was very dissapointed when I woke up this morning! Snowing when I went to bed at 2.00am and the radar looked good! Looks like work tomorrow!!!

[BristolBlizzard]

off out for a walk in snow here , all you getting lots of snow enjoy

[Cakie]

Light snow all morning but temps are up, seems that things are beginning to thaw a bit

[dogs32]

enjoy it Pat

I hope it doesn't move south - personally looking forward to a thaw now - temp risen to 0.9C lol

I know people are going to think Im a moaner but I cant wait for spring..

Im so out routine since xmas I might as well put the xmas tree up..

Happy xmas everyone

I need to get back to normality or Prozac..lol

[Bristawl Si]

Quote from John Holmes on the Model Thread:

I think this is a really good post.

Temps getting above freezing today - I think any snow from now on is going to become increasingly wet, and a slow thaw by day probably meaning the existing snowcover will turn messier as the week goes on. Still the possibility of some wet snow moving in from the SW Tues/Weds. What I've liked about this winter so far is that the snow hasn't melted during the day. That's probably about to change...

I beg to disagree with John's post actually. a few days ago the forecast for today (i.e model output) was showing persistent, heavier, more organised snow for the day, coming up from the continent to affect southern england and the midlands. What we have in North BTL is the 'man upstairs' shaking his head about and dandruff falling!

With regards today's forecast, as predicted on the Beeb forecasts yday eve is about right for our area. I know WIB has commented on the heavier stuff in N.Devon as a surprise, but the graphics on late forecast last night did show a big white blob going thru' West Dorset and into Devon and then into Cornwall. For our area specifically it showed slightly heavier pulses of snow in the north of our region i.e. Cheltenham, Cotswolds and into S.E. wales. So pretty spot on at the mo i'd say.

[Mumbles]

Light snow flurries here in Sherborne at present with temps on the up at 1.5....feels alot colder.

Do you reckon we'll see more heavy snow this way??

take care all x

[yipikiaye]

snowing here now temp at 0.0 c lol

[Jayfromcardiff]

No thawing here lol.

[dogs32]

No thawing here lol.

no thawing here

happy xmas Jay

though the temp is 1.5 now

maybe Spring is around the corner

Edited January 10, 2010 by dogs32

[Bristawl Si]

Snowing heavier here now.

Commenting on Tuesday's 'event' - looks like latest models predict far south west to be hit by snow. Devon, South Somerset, Cornwall - before the system slopes away from the UK. I guess that indicates a continuation of the cold for the rest of us, although not as cold as last few days.

Snow gone lighter again now - frustrating

[dogs32]

Is anyone else getting this fairly-to heavy snow here in Glos..

Rich if your on here whats it like in your road..lol

Edited January 10, 2010 by dogs32

[robnor1]

These weather forecasters remind me of the old racing tipping lines where they would eventually tip every horse in the race so that when a horse won they could claim to have tipped the winner even if you had 2nd or 3rd well that would nearly be right. So low and behold this morning in e.g Swindon when the weather is knowhere near the BBC Sat night forecast we get one of the professional on here saying what he came up with 5 days ago for now is more or less correct. Then there are one or two who where almost correct blah blah. Don't make me laugh especially as it is the 3rd time in 5 days that a forecast <12 hours for N Wlits has been a non event.

What pees me off slightly is the BBC forecasters just gloss over the fact that the night before's forecast did not appear - even 15 seconds of well this moved here instead of there that's why we not accurate would be nice.

Strong winds drifting snow my I have a problem.

Credit where credit is due there has been a few drizzly flakes falling in the last hour here.

[gloucesterlad]

Is anyone else getting this fairly-to heavy snow here in Glos..

Rich if your on here whats it like in your road..lol

Yep - pretty persistent for over an hour now but only settling on existing snow cover. Still.. its a Brucie bonus !

John in Quedgeley, Gloucester

Edited January 10, 2010 by gloucesterlad

[littlemissy]

I've just been outside(getting the wood in) and the snow already on the ground has frozen solid .I've managed to avoid slipping over so far but it was close.

Like dogs 32, I need my routine back.

A few flakes falling now,slight breeze.

Edited January 10, 2010 by littlemissy

[snow go zone]

Is there anyone online from Blandford area? Was wondering if you had anymore snow last night?

[yipikiaye]

Whats happened to the easterly wind which was forecast.I now got heavier snow than my last post

[dancing daisy]

These weather forecasters remind me of the old racing tipping lines where they would eventually tip every horse in the race so that when a horse won they could claim to have tipped the winner even if you had 2nd or 3rd well that would nearly be right. So low and behold this morning in e.g Swindon when the weather is knowhere near the BBC Sat night forecast we get one of the professional on here saying what he came up with 5 days ago for now is more or less correct. Then there are one or two who where almost correct blah blah. Don't make me laugh especially as it is the 3rd time in 5 days that a forecast <12 hours for N Wlits has been a non event.

What pees me off slightly is the BBC forecasters just gloss over the fact that the night before's forecast did not appear - even 15 seconds of well this moved here instead of there that's why we not accurate would be nice.

Strong winds drifting snow my I have a problem.

Credit where credit is due there has been a few drizzly flakes falling in the last hour here.

Robnor, I am sure this must be very frustrating for you, being forecast snow, then 5 minutes later no snow...but the forecasts are changing for everyone all of the time, severe weather warnings downgraded/upgraded and I think a lot of us are getting fed up. But, from the very little I know about weather forecasting snow is very much a nowcast situation, what shows on the radar isn't neccessarily what falls from the sky, being surrounded by hills can affect it, temps obviously affect the snow. I am sure snow must be every forecasters nightmare as there is no way to specifically state in which town it will fall.

Please tell me if I am talking rubbish.

Oh and for someone who said they wouldn't use the radar for longer than a few weeks a year, you can buy a subscription for one month, it's only about £3, I hhave to say though that I have become a little obsessed with it, plus it keeps showing snow for me and then I look out of the window and nothing is falling.

[snow what snow]

Heavy snow to the north of Dartmoor, Holsworthy, Whiddon Down etc but pretty bad in the east as well. Best to check on the road conditions before going. Whiddon Down is on the A30 so should be OK, but if you were going over the top I'd forget it. Princetown was blocked in the week so I would think the road was pretty impassable to 2wheel drive.

BBC Devon website has the travel updates.

just been up on the boarder of princetown, roads not good, closed off at dousland, moderate snow and strong wind

[rowieboyz]

just been up on the boarder of princetown, roads not good, closed off at dousland, moderate snow and strong wind

I drove down to Tavistock yesterday, good job I had 4x4!!!! There was a woman being towed by a land rover after getting stuck just past merrivale quarry.

Jase

[Paul T]

Cadover bridge, appraoching from Plympton for me then...

[03jtrickey]

Gloomy weather today, light snizzle and a slow thaw of existing snowcover. The wind has picked up a bit and shaken snow off the trees overnight.