Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 20:

[snowy owl]

Evening

Boy is feels chilly out there, definitley still on the cold side.

Well in the shorter term, Thursday and Friday look to be of interest in our neck of the woods. Snow is a very distinct possibility and its also Very interesting that we seem to be heading for the possibility of even more cold in the longer term! Can't quite believe this winter tbh.

Off to have a closer inspection of the charts.

[Gilly]

Well the northerly is most definitely on - the big question is how much, if any, snow will fall.

I've been watching this feature for a few runs now, and the position has been constantly changing, but this has real potential for frontal snow in central and eastern Scotland, possibly western also though it looks fairly marginal there.

LS

Working in Kingussie on Friday - Drumochter could be interesting then!

Yes agreed, potentially the Northerly is on........but I think it will be initially NNW.

As for precipitation......well much could depend on how far west it reaches and whether it will be snow or sleet.

The North Sea and East Coast areas will certainly be the benificaries of a few showers. Just hope that it does include us further to the west.

I never really know what Joe B's on about...He did forecast severe cold for 2003, I believe. But, I think he forecasts severe cold every year...

He likes to think positive!!

[LomondSnowstorm]

I believe the main PPN threat for central areas and inland eastern areas is from a front moving in on Thursday night/Friday morning, and how far east this gets is still up for debate. This has potential though - uppers below -5 east of Glasgow with a very heavy band of PPN moving southeast. A slight northeastwards adjustment is all it would take for a 12th March '06 type snowfall, but equally a southwestwards adjustment would leave many with no snow! After +168 is still up for grabs, with the mean heights for 8-14 days suggesting an easterly, GP suggesting more cold zonality from northwesterlies (so many near misses last year with those setups that we're bound to see one of those come off!) and the models running with either a surface cold high pressure system http://charts.netwea...264/h500slp.png or a setup with very warm (uppers +10!) southerlies followed by either an easterly or a low pressure system moving southeast http://212.100.247.1.../ecm500.240.png

My bet is on GP's forecast, as BFTP backs it up nicely as well, with some chance of an easterly by mid- month as the MJO tracks towards phase 8/maybe 1.

LS

edit: Blast says on model forum to ignore FI at the moment as he reckons a greeny high will set up. Not sure if he's right but certainly there are signs pointing in that direction other than the actual model output itself!

Edited January 25, 2010 by LomondSnowstorm

[Northernlights]

A lot of discussion about the potential snow at the end of the week but we have still a lot of snow still lying especially a few miles inland a couple of photos to show this and the damage caused to a lot of trees by the snow. Glenferness to Carrbrdge road just opened last week. At home there are still a lot of scars of snow with a couple of north facing fields still with 75% cover up to 10 inches deep with the more open fields completely thawed. Postie made it up the farm road today after an absence of 2 weeks because of sheet ice which has now more than half thawed. This brings back lots of memories of winters in the sixties when snow would fall around New Year and remain in sheltered spots throughout various freeze/thaw cycles to perhaps the middle of March, I thought in the last couple of decades this type of winter had gone forever but something has certainly changed this winter although I had noticed a cooling trend in the last few years. I might still be able to make a snowball from a drift remaining behind a north facing dyke in the middle of March this year if this keeps up.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Could not agree more.

We still have 4" lying in the garden (bit of a frost hollow) although maybe 90% melt to 200 m here, but the higher levels of the borders are still completely white; they had to plough the A68 at Soutra again the other night.

That's over a month of lying snow in the borders - over double last year with much more still around.

I love global warming

[Gilly]

Thanks LS......a very good update on possibilities.

Yes NL I was up in that area at the weekend and I too noticed there had been a lot of damage to trees, as much as after a storm!

We wait in anticipation for the arrival for the white stuff this weekend.......

Wet miserable morning here at 2C

[snowy owl]

Northernlights, very insteresting to see your photos. The Lammermuirs here are covered but most of the snow has gone at lower levels although shady parts are still holding some ice/snow.

Looking forward to some more snow but hopefully not too much sun/mon as my daughter is going into hospital overnight and i need to take her in and home again.

Great summary LS, lets hope it keeps up today.

[blitzen]

I see EITS is getting rather excited on the model thread over the projected beasterly! He even referred to synoptic similarities to 1947! If only. These projections will change a thousand times. You never know tho' Here is a piece on the 1947 winter in Kent, but it was pretty much the same over the whole of the country:

No drooling now!

Edited January 26, 2010 by Blitzen

[Highland Snow]

I see EITS is getting rather excited on the model thread over the projected beasterly! He even referred to synoptic similarities to 1947! If only. These projections will change a thousand times. You never know tho' Here is a piece on the 1947 winter in Kent, but it was pretty much the same over the whole of the country:

TEITS and the Beast from the East! There's something worrying going on there.

[snowy owl]

Oh eck! i remember the Beast from the East stories from previous years on Net weather!! help!

Certainly the models throwing some interesting scenarios about an easterly but some seem to think that it may not quite reach that evolution?

Lots to get through before then though. so looking forward to the weekend to see if we hang on to any snow?! or just a few flurries?

[Big Innes Madori]

Oh eck! i remember the Beast from the East stories from previous years on Net weather!! help!

Certainly the models throwing some interesting scenarios about an easterly but some seem to think that it may not quite reach that evolution?

Lots to get through before then though. so looking forward to the weekend to see if we hang on to any snow?! or just a few flurries?

Aye Snowy Owl, I also remember reading Dave's Beast from The East posts from previous years, but this winter has been very different to those years and has already delivered the goods to almost all of the UK!

So this will be very interesting and we will probably all be following the developments over the coming days

Big Innes.

Edited January 26, 2010 by Big Innes Madori

[blitzen]

More sleepless nights anyone? :unsure: Still, have to admit I enjoyed the last lot of exciting model runs during the cold spell. I hope they are just as enjoyable/exciting in the next few days too. This time tho' with more surprises thrown in for this area as we were one of the few Scottish areas that didn't do all that well regarding snow depths. I would like one last shot at a 'biggie' before Spring sets in. That would then satisfy my cravings till next Winter.

Where's Mondy by the way? Thought he would have had some interest in the latest musings.

Edited January 26, 2010 by Blitzen

[Allyw12]

Hi all

I've been keeping an eye on the discussion the past few days, seen lots of talk about a possible snow event for Thursday/Friday. I've just been in the general model discussion thread (there are all very excited) and I've now ended up really confused, they are saying no snow Thurs/Friday now, but is that just for them or are the talking about the whole of the UK.

[blitzen]

Hi all

I've been keeping an eye on the discussion the past few days, seen lots of talk about a possible snow event for Thursday/Friday. I've just been in the general model discussion thread (there are all very excited) and I've now ended up really confused, they are saying no snow Thurs/Friday now, but is that just for them or are the talking about the whole of the UK.

The models differ slightly from run to run at the moment Ally and they do appear to be under a temporary milder sector on Friday. Eastern Scotland just hangs on to the colder uppers though. As I say, this is only a temporary blip for a few hours according to the 06z and will probably change again on the next run. Hopefully for the better! :unsure:

Edited January 26, 2010 by Blitzen

[Allyw12]

The models differ slightly from run to run at the moment Ally and they do appear to be under a temporary milder sector on Friday. Eastern Scotland just hangs on to the colder uppers though. As I say, this is only a temporary blip for a few hours according to the 06z and will probably change again on the next run. Hopefully for the better!

Hopefull, got my fingers crossed. another march 2006 would be nice !! Everyone at work wants another snow day(we're children I know) they have all given up on anymore snow, So I don't want to say anything just yet!!! I will keep watching!!!

[snowy owl]

I feel that the level of excitement on the model thread is too much!!! Help!!!

Thought i'd come back in here for some sanity! lol!.

I am remaining optimistic that things appear to be pepping up nicely for further cold - a long way to go though. Its such a shame i'm going on hol soon! lol that would be just my luck!

[Snowplough33]

I know quite alot of the GSF 12z is in FI, but its still some run to look at!!! If that comes off...........WOW!!!

There has been hints for a while on the model thread that East blast was possible and GSF has showen it a few runs now. Gonna be fun watching the development, and even short term some good chances. The low in the North Sea on Sunday/Monday be one to watch.

Fingers crossed :drinks:

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Evening all.

Just opened the door to the model thread and quickly closed it again. Nuts in there right now. People running around with all sorts of charts shouting 'easterly' and 'I predicted this years ago but nobody listened etc.'

Easterly? Where did that come from?

With just a quick look at the meto, is the predicted block in the Atlantic going to allow pressure to build from the east once the low over the Baltic on Fri sinks?

Think I'll wait and see if LSS will help bring sense from madness as usual....

Edited January 26, 2010 by scottish skier

[Snowplough33]

Evening all.

Just opened the door to the model thread and quickly closed it again. Nuts in there right now. People running around with all sorts of charts shouting 'easterly' and 'I predicted this years ago but nobody listened etc.'

Easterly? Where did that come from?

With just a quick look at the meto, is the predicted block in the Atlantic going to allow pressure to build from the east once the low over the Baltic on Fri sinks?

Think I'll wait and see if LSS will help bring sense from madness as usual....

Have to say, there is some agreement between the runs on something from the east, but its a long way off and lots WILL change. None the less.........permission to be slightly excited ???

Please be very careful in the model thread........it is about to break!! If we have a GSF 18z cold east run tonight entering the model thread may damage your computer!!!!!!BEWARE

Edited January 26, 2010 by Snowplough33

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Have to say, there is some agreement between the runs on something from the east, but its a long way off and lots WILL change. None the less.........permission to be slightly excited ???

Please be very careful in the model thread........it is about to break!! If we have a GSF 18z cold east run tonight entering the model thread may damage your computer!!!!!!BEWARE

Ha ha. You have my permission to be excited. I'll join in.

You're right about the model thread. When I went in there earlier, I got a blue screen of death with error message:

**** STOP : 0x00000007B, 0x0000000, 0x0000000, 0x0000000>

EASTERLY_OVERLOAD_ERROR

[Snowplough33]

Ha ha. You have my permission to be excited. I'll join in.

You're right about the model thread. When I went in there earlier, I got a blue screen of death with error message:

**** STOP : 0x00000007B, 0x0000000, 0x0000000, 0x0000000>

EASTERLY_OVERLOAD_ERROR

LOL LOL

[Blizzardo]

Some amazing model runs tonight with all going for potent Northerlies followed by strong Easterlies, albeit how they get from Northerly to Easterly differs a little.

The ECM run is almost a perfect run with not a hint of mild and if it was to verify there would be some heavy and widespread snowfall for much of the UK.

The GFS is slightly less dramatic compared to the ECM but would still deliver a cold spell of weather loads of snow opportunities.

There will undoubtably be some ups and downs over the coming days but it it looks like a another cold and wintery period of weather is on the way.

[sammie]

I'm kinda half super excited half irritated I can't remember the last time I felt warm.

[lorenzo]

GFS 18z run trickling out now and the cold pool develops in a similar fashion to ECM, this weekend is going to be fun - Nearly as much fun as watching the charts and Model Thread implode hopefully.

Looks like January is going to go out with some signature snowfalls

[Cheggers]

Ha ha. You have my permission to be excited. I'll join in.

You're right about the model thread. When I went in there earlier, I got a blue screen of death with error message:

Model thread must be bad!!!!! :lol:

4.5 here at the moment, might just go put some shorts on!!!!!

Where is our young Michael Fish this evening, after the warnings not going near the model thread.