Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Costa Del Fal]

looks like 18Z has moved it west? lets hope so, but I still feel it will be marginal

It does seem a little bit further West but the general outcome seems no different really especially for us.

[NorthantsSnow]

Things look a touch delayed on the NAE, similar to the GFS. Precipitation amounts have dropped a bit everywhere, but seem OK for most. Still waiting on the precip type charts.

EDIT: Uh oh! Main snow risk has moved to Wales now tomorrow afternoon with rain elsewhere.

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/17/basis18/ukuk/prty/10021818_1718.gif

Next frame will be better though.

Edited February 17, 2010 by NorthantsSnow

[cold stoke]

Things look a touch delayed on the NAE, similar to the GFS. Precipitation amounts have dropped a bit everywhere, but seem OK for most. Still waiting on the precip type charts.

Uh oh! Main snow risk has moved to Wales now.

http://expert.weathe...021818_1718.gif

its snowing here in stoke not sticking yet

[PolarWarsaw]

18z improved chances of seeing something a little heavier here - but imo looked a little bit more marginal which is certainly no use to me.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

miles off yet but sat 20th Feb looks like an interesting little low, similar to tomorrow

this website seems to be playing up a bit, especially this thread

[Costa Del Fal]

Changes are rather minor i think from the 18z GFS & NAE. Maybe a touch further West but nothing thats notably different to the 12z imo.

[NorthantsSnow]

Latest NAE:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/17/basis18/ukuk/prty/10021900_1718.gif

Decent chart for Herefordshire, Worcestershire and Warwickshire.

For the rest of the region pretty poor so far.

[Costa Del Fal]

miles off yet but sat 20th Feb looks like an interesting little low, similar to tomorrow

this website seems to be playing up a bit, especially this thread

The charts are loving Wales and The Midlands arent they.

[Cheese Rice]

this website seems to be playing up a bit, especially this thread

Same here glad I'm not the only one, thought it was my laptop been restarting it for last 10 minutes.

[NorthantsSnow]

This is quite a nice chart from the NAE, extending the snow risk well into Friday morning and bringing Northamptonshire into the equation:

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/17/basis18/ukuk/prty/10021906_1718.gif

Frankly, I'd bank this one right now if I could.

Edited February 17, 2010 by NorthantsSnow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

but mondays snowfest for south, still time for it to move north

[kold weather]

Yeah more marginal runs from both the 18z GFS and the NAE, indeed the low is further west it seems.

The NAE still a lot slower then the GFS in spreading the snow risk further east which is a good thing in many ways, however by the time it reaches the east Midlands it does start to weaken it seems a little. The 18z GFS is moving a little towards the NAE however.

Precip looking very good for the west Midlands BUT once again on the 18z it comes at the worst time of day for marginality issues and dew points around 1C combined with what the temp likely will be sill likely mean sleet rather then snow.

[Ben_Cambs]

Same here glad I'm not the only one, thought it was my laptop been restarting it for last 10 minutes.

Same here, its been quite slow moving around on the site! Sorry for intruding but the EA thread is dead quiet... A very interesting day for you guys tomorrow in the Midlands, so good luck!

[Nick L]

Site is fine for me.

[NorthantsSnow]

Still snow in places up to midday Friday on this run from the NAE, albeit light and mostly over Leicestershire but not exclusively so.

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/02/17/basis18/ukuk/prty/10021912_1718.gif

Interesting run. When will this be factored into the TV forecasts, does anyone know?

[Costa Del Fal]

Im getting no problems here?

[NorthantsSnow]

Yeah, the site is fine for me as well. Maybe it's an ISP problem and not a Netweather problem. Just a thought.

[kold weather]

The charts are loving Wales and The Midlands arent they.

Whats interesting is you tend to find that systems will tend to follow each other to some extent because steering currents will be roughly the same as they are tomorrow from the looks of things, the track looks a little more easterly but it doesn't look far off from the track and maybe even timing.

Just gotta hope the front holds back a little more longer then is progged.

Also worth noting the 18z is a lot less snowy, the 12z run had a wide area of 5-10cms in the Midlands, the 18z only has 2-4cms generally it seems with a small patch of 5-10cms in E.Wales, because of both lighter precip and much more marginal temps during the day which means it takes longer for the snow to fall and settle.

To be honest that seems a probable trend to me...

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

A more realistic run from the NAE- now suggesting precipitation consisting mostly of snowfall around late tomorrow evening into Friday. I am concerned, however, by how much rain falls prior to the transition to wet snowfall. But given that snowfall now looks like occuring during night-time, then I think there's a pretty good chance of temporary small accumulations over this region.

Overall, not a bad run, but uncertainty still remains.

Well the proffesionals say 10cm widely and the one i watched from jay win a live forecast an hour ago said the mids will wake up to a good blankett of snow fri morn

[Costa Del Fal]

Also worth noting the 18z is a lot less snowy, the 12z run had a wide area of 5-10cms in the Midlands, the 18z only has 2-4cms generally it seems with a small patch of 5-10cms in E.Wales, because of both lighter precip and much more marginal temps during the day which means it takes longer for the snow to fall and settle.

To be honest that seems a probable trend to me...

Tbh the GFS 18Z Precip intensity seems quite similar to me to the 12z however i agree it seems a touch more marginal but every run is going to differ ever so slightly imo.

[NorthantsSnow]

So it seems the precipitation will start off as rain everywhere tomorrow afternoon and turn increasingly snowy from the west. Initially the main snow risk tomorrow evening will be in Herefordshire, Worcestershire and Warwickshire. As the night goes on though this risk will transfer eastwards to Northamptonshire, Leicestershire and Lincolnshire.

This is according to the NAE.

[MKN]

Well the proffesionals say 10cm widely and the one i watched from jay win a live forecast an hour ago said the mids will wake up to a good blankett of snow fri morn

With a 10cm top up for sat we can dream lol

[Costa Del Fal]

Updated BBC Graphics (On the TV) dont show much change which is good.

[kar999]

I'm more concerned about the black ice tomorrow morning on untreated roads than snow later in the daytime. For my area, which looks marginal, timing will be critical as temps will be a tad too high in daylight hours I fear.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Taking GFS in isolation, I wouldn't expect much from tomorrow, perhaps the slightest of coverings at best. It's the NAE that suggests the potential for around 1-3" falls- though this being more of a risk over high ground it must be stressed. Really is a difficult one to call. My main concern now is the timing of this front and how much rain falls before any precip transitions into snowfall.

So let me get this straight ,

We are no lookin at the 10cm talked about all day by the pros and we are now lookin at 1-3cm mainly on high ground?

If thats how it is count me out its onions (sori but has to be said after too many disapointments)