Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Summer of 95]

Just looked outside and it's yet more sleet, with temps feeling warmer than they did this afternoon- don't hold out much hope for sticking snow even after dark tomorrow at this rate.

[echobase]

BBC WEATHER FOR MONDAY.................Heavy Snow

2°C 36°F -1°C 30°F East South Easterly7mph 11km/h 94% 987mb Very poor More info for Monday's weather Last updated at 19:40, Wednesday 17 February ???

Did I miss something! Had my view fixed on Thurs/Friday !!

[Hailsowen]

So let me get this straight ,

We are no lookin at the 10cm talked about all day by the pros and we are now lookin at 1-3cm mainly on high ground?

If thats how it is count me out its onions (sori but has to be said after too many disapointments)

There's still chance. The snow depth at the end of the day is currently anyone's guess, but there's more potential than there was today.

[kold weather]

So it seems the precipitation will start off as rain everywhere tomorrow afternoon and turn increasingly snowy from the west. Initially the main snow risk tomorrow evening will be in Herefordshire, Worcestershire and Warwickshire. As the night goes on though this risk will transfer eastwards to Northamptonshire, Leicestershire and Lincolnshire.

This is according to the NAE.

Yeah thats seems right to me, during the daytime any precip will fall as a wintry mix probably dependant on the heaviness away from high ground. Once the eveing time comes around the colder air will slowly cool things down and the front edge will turn to snow and eventually the whole front will probably turn to snow during the late overnight hours as temps widely go the right side of marginal.

Going to be very much a wait and see set-up, and hopefully the system takes its time in reaching you guys.

Saturday could yet turn out to be yet *another* marginal event but things are very fluid in these evolutions.

[echobase]

I said 1-3" (inches), not 1-3cm.

Onions ?? Sorry for the one liner but.......................

Where`s Andy?? There is a real prospect for snow.... Soon??

Edited February 17, 2010 by ECHOBASE1975MK6

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Onions ?? Sorry for the one liner but.......................

I no lol i used the sh@t but the comp changed the word for me , not sure if its my settings or the forum settings !!

[A.J]

Well, whatever happens, I've made my mind up..I'm going to make sure I get home for 2pm, and then pop down the pub, just in case....I mean, being stuck in the pub, unable to get back home because of blizzards? It would be a tragedy in the making... :lol:

[A.J]

...and 18z NAE seems to be taking things further SE again, precip accs look considerably lighter, and timings seem to be delayed by several hours....This run suggests central/East Midlands up to The Wash seem to be in the firing line for accumulating snows, IMHO differing increasingly from the 18z GFS run which shunts the heavier precip further west and north.....It'll be interesting to see the 00z runs in the morning to finalize the finer details

GFS 18z precip...

GFS 18z precip type....

NAE 18z precip....

[echobase]

Well, whatever happens, I've made my mind up..I'm going to make sure I get home for 2pm, and then pop down the pub, just in case....I mean, being stuck in the pub, unable to get back home because of blizzards? It would be a tragedy in the making...

Beef, Pork, Lamb and Chicken prepped for the weekend....... Snuggled up now with Mrs Echo!! Both off all weekend, pub within walking distance !!! Bring it on....

[NorthantsSnow]

The NMM is not as good as the NAE for Northamptonshire, taking the system a little too far north. It's at odds with the NAE though in the track.

Oh well. A disappointing end to the day. Guess I'll just hope for the best and see what materialises on the big day.

[A.J]

The NMM is not as good as the NAE for Northamptonshire, taking the system a little too far north. It's at odds with the NAE though in the track.

Oh well. A disappointing end to the day. Guess I'll just hope for the best and see what materialises on the big day.

I've just ran the 21z NMM loop, and on first glance, it looks to be splitting the difference between 18z NAE and GFS...It takes the heavier precip slightly further north than NAE, but pushes it out to the east coast well before GFS.....My money is on the NMM

[Costa Del Fal]

Some smallish changes are still occurring so we need to see tomorrow's runs first i think. Best of luck for tomorrow though!

[J10]

NMM showing a period of moderate rainfall with perhaps some sleet mixed in before in slowly transitions into snowfall. The west Midlands could be looking a couple of hours, maybe more of rain and/or sleet before the decrease in temps and the dewpoint start to have an affect on the falling precipitation. Not much of a concern across the north-east Midlands due to the timing of the arrival of the precip. Higher ground over Wales doesn't look to experience much rain or sleet so here is not as marginal.

Really now depends on how heavy any snowfall will be. The ground will be rather wet so it's going to have be heavy if there are to be accumulations across the west Midlands.

Excellent runs tonight from NAE, GFS and NMM, all increasing the westward extent and increased intensity of any precipitation for tomorrow, looking very promising indeed for inland upland parts of Wales.

[Costa Del Fal]

Excellent runs tonight from NAE, GFS and NMM, all increasing the westward extent and increased intensity of any precipitation for tomorrow, looking very promising indeed for inland upland parts of Wales.

What are your thoughts for us tomorrow?

[TEITS]

Excellent runs tonight from NAE, GFS and NMM, all increasing the westward extent and increased intensity of any precipitation for tomorrow, looking very promising indeed for inland upland parts of Wales.

Looking at the precip totals for tomorrow its only SE parts of Wales that look at risk. The main core of precip is suggested to be SW Midlands/SE Wales with the NE limit around Lincs.

Parts of the E Midlands/ W parts of E Anglia are more at risk during Thurs night into Friday.

[Costa Del Fal]

Looks quite likely that it will at least start off as rain/sleet tomorrow then turning to snow later.

[PolarWarsaw]

Not very excited at all if im honest. Marginal conditions are awful when its come to my very localised area, i live within 300M's of a power station in the lowest part of a town already in a valley. I think my house is about 55M asl. Im expecting a period of sleety rain followed by some transitonal wet snow. Leaving things very wet and grim looking. At least if you have low expectations, you cant be dissapointed.

[kold weather]

Yep Eye only really parts of Wales have a decent shot tomorrow, very good agreement on the 18z models about the evolution, hopefully the front holds back a few hours, it really could make the difference between some places getting 1-2cms and some getting 5-7cms...

We shall see...

[snowmadchrisuk]

I Hope the NNM model is wrong because It takes the Snow risk North of Leicester and keeps the heavy stuff during the day over Wales . These last minute changes are doing my head in . The NAE is much better though.

[MKN]

The nmm and gfs are absolute disasters the nae is fantastic still but im not at all confident now, so many times getting shafted by these changed with just 12 or so hours to go. Hopefully bbc forecasts this morning will be taking into account all the very latest data they hsve to hand otherwise they will be wide of the mark if the gfs and nmm are correct. Only 1 set of runs to go really until we will have it on our doorstep so if no improvement on the 06zs then its game over

Edited February 18, 2010 by SnowTornado

[kar999]

I was expecting frost this morning but temps and dewpoints are +1 with some occasional light drizzle... or mizzle even!

Yesterdays charts showed snow to be very marginal but havent checked todays. It needs to have shifted NW for me to get anything and outside daylight hours I suspect,

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Have a look how slow moving the front is folks, its a slow moving front , get suck under a slow moving heavy snow front and your get loads of snow , also dont worry if the heavy snow goes into wales first cause its moving from west to east so it just means whats over there has got to come over us so it may look they have the good tuff to begin with but by the time it gets to us it will be later which is a good thing.

[A.J]

Have a look how slow moving the front is folks, its a slow moving front , get suck under a slow moving heavy snow front and your get loads of snow , also dont worry if the heavy snow goes into wales first cause its moving from west to east so it just means whats over there has got to come over us so it may look they have the good tuff to begin with but by the time it gets to us it will be later which is a good thing.

It looks like GFS & NMM up against the NAE today....NAE hasnt really budged, but both NMM & GFS have moved everything North & West.......hmm quick edit...BBC Breakfast weather at 8:15 seems to forecast the precip more in line with the NAE model...A fascinating day of radar/sky watching beckons

[Strider]

I think for the Midlands there are really 2 major questions -

a) At what time precisely is the wind direction expected to change?

Will the snow "run out of puff" in south wales before getting here?

[dogs32]

It looks like GFS & NMM up against the NAE today....NAE hasnt really budged, but both NMM & GFS have moved everything North & West.......hmm quick edit...BBC Breakfast weather at 8:15 seems to forecast the precip more in line with the NAE model...A fascinating day of radar/sky watching beckons

im not sure what I will get but I reckon you certainly will see 4 inch's +

Temp as slightly dropped here with a Thundery looking sky which I havent seen since last Summer