Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I think for the Midlands there are really 2 major questions -

a) At what time precisely is the wind direction expected to change?

Will the snow "run out of puff" in south wales before getting here?

We dont the wind direction to change, you can have stong northerly winds with a low arrivng from the south , u should no that

[stevomatt]

What do u guys think about how much if any Northamptonshire east mids will get

thanks

[A.J]

im not sure what I will get but I reckon you certainly will see 4 inch's +

Temp as slightly dropped here with a Thundery looking sky which I havent seen since last Summer

Where I am, approx 15-20 miles NW of Brum, my heart says NMM is bang on, and a dumping is on its way....my head says NAE rules the roost, and some light rain/sleet will be all she wrote

[locneverstop]

Does anybody know when MO update their warnings? I feel if MO stick to their guns and don't back down then odds on it'll happen.

Slightly worried about the level of the isotherm. We need heavy PPN to drag it down to the surface.

[Essan]

Just seen a few odd flakes coming down in Evesham to add to the handful of snow grains that fell overnight - so a snow day even if nothing else happens! But I think this afternoon good be interesting

[I remember Atlantic 252]

seems miles too warm, warmer than this time yesterday, not very optimistic now at 2°C, bbc charts look awful, may not be as good as yesterdays wet snow

[Costa Del Fal]

I think the NMM may be slightly over doing it on how far North West this goes. Then again i think the NAE has it slightly too far South East so somewhere inbetween perhaps. Thankfully, either way, as long as any snow is heavy enough, i am fortunately in a location where i should do well enough this evening.

[Serendipity]

Below freezing here - for dp and regular temp.

[locneverstop]

Is the system we're looking for the one lying to our South on the radar?

If so it's moving a bit quick...

[azores92]

i honestly think this will be another non-event for the west midlands. id love to be proved wrong, but:

1) the fact it is likely to rain/sleet first means this is providing a poor basis for any settling snow

2) the number of times marginal events have let us down in the past, i feel this is just another one of those events, conditions arent at their best, the weather front is likely to arrive mid afternoon, perhaps a tad later. besides, given progged temperatures for tomorrow, if it did settle, we'd be lucky to see it last past tomorrow morning.

[Costa Del Fal]

Quite a few snow reports from the South West this morning however i think they will decrease in a few hours when it begins slightly too warm imo.

[locneverstop]

i honestly think this will be another non-event for the west midlands. id love to be proved wrong, but:

1) the fact it is likely to rain/sleet first means this is providing a poor basis for any settling snow

2) the number of times marginal events have let us down in the past, i feel this is just another one of those events, conditions arent at their best, the weather front is likely to arrive mid afternoon, perhaps a tad later. besides, given progged temperatures for tomorrow, if it did settle, we'd be lucky to see it last past tomorrow morning.

Rain/Sleet first may not have any bearing. I remember a past event where it rained heavily for half an hour before it turned to snow and we still ended up with 4+ inches.

What we need is for the precip to be heavy enough to null the effect of the wet ground.

Edited February 18, 2010 by locneverstop

[Costa Del Fal]

Indeed there have been quite a few events where snow follows rain and i was like 'any snow will never settle now'. November 18th 2007 or aound the date brought rain and sleet all day then some heavyish snowfall in the evening brought a covering almost instantly.

However there are times when the snow never sticks.

Edited February 18, 2010 by Blizzards

[azores92]

Rain/Sleet first may not have any bearing. I remember a past event where it rained heavily for half an hour before it turned to snow and we still ended up with 4+ inches.

What we need is for the precip to be heavy enough to null the effect of the wet ground.

no but given rule of thumb, if the initial precip of rain/sleet is heavy, it is providing a poor basis for any settling snow. the snow may still settle, but the snow will likely just melt onto the warm moist ground. elevation is obviously helpful in these situations.

[Costa Del Fal]

-15c in Tulloch Bridge last night. Bit nippy.

[azores92]

dont you just hate the words wintry mix, makes my spine tingle

[locneverstop]

no but given rule of thumb, if the initial precip of rain/sleet is heavy, it is providing a poor basis for any settling snow. the snow may still settle, but the snow will likely just melt onto the warm moist ground. elevation is obviously helpful in these situations.

I do agree, dry ground would be much more helpful. I was just pointing out that we may not need it, if conditions are just right. That's a big 'if' though!

[Costa Del Fal]

dont you just hate the words wintry mix, makes my spine tingle

You just wait until we hear the word 'Mini tornado' again this year...

[azores92]

You just wait until we hear the word 'Mini tornado' again this year...

[locneverstop]

You just wait until we hear the word 'Mini tornado' again this year...

That makes my blood boil! Big difference between 'tornado' and 'funnel cloud'.

Did anyone ever catch that youtube video of the tornado in netherton? Hilarious!

Edit: the audio is a must with this

Edited February 18, 2010 by locneverstop

[Tom D]

I saw a funnel cloud from my back garden at home in Hertfordshire last June during that day when some really intense storms broke out. I'd never seen anything like it, it was a fantastic lightning display, I've got some pics of it here if anyone's interested. Can't wait for summer after looking at those photos, haven't seen a decent convective shower for far too long!

Anyway, back to today and I'm refusing to get too hopeful for actual accumulations. If the precip arrives around 4-6pm then I feel it will be too wet to settle, but if it hangs around for a while after dark I guess that could increase chances of sticking.

Edited February 18, 2010 by Tommyd1258

[locneverstop]

I saw a funnel cloud from my back garden last June during that day when some really intense storms broke out. I'd never seen anything like it, it was a fantastic lightning display, I've got some pics of it here if anyone's interested. Can't wait for summer after looking at those photos, haven't seen a decent convective shower for far too long!

Anyway, back to today and I'm refusing to get too hopeful for actual accumulations. If the precip arrives around 4-6pm then I feel it will be too wet to settle, but if it hangs around for a while after dark I guess that could increase chances of sticking.

Amazing those are! I think I'll have to start taking photographs this year...

I think we will see at least something even if it is a dusting. Watching the radar this morning the front seems to be growing, with what I think is some convection in the channel? I'm hoping it'll stall on approach this afternoon and not steam roll straight through...

[Costa Del Fal]

That makes my blood boil! Big difference between 'tornado' and 'funnel cloud'.

Did anyone ever catch that youtube video of the tornado in netherton? Hilarious!

Edit: the audio is a must with this

LMAO, only in Netherton.

[Crimson_Sprite]

I saw a funnel cloud from my back garden last June during that day when some really intense storms broke out. I'd never seen anything like it, it was a fantastic lightning display, I've got some pics of it here if anyone's interested. Can't wait for summer after looking at those photos, haven't seen a decent convective shower for far too long!

Anyway, back to today and I'm refusing to get too hopeful for actual accumulations. If the precip arrives around 4-6pm then I feel it will be too wet to settle, but if it hangs around for a while after dark I guess that could increase chances of sticking.

FANTASTIC PICS!!! Beats my summer storms anyday!!! Nice One!

[locneverstop]

LMAO, only in Netherton.

My personal favourite is mum...MUM!