Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[loopydreamer]

Ok time to bring this thread down a peg or two, the GFS ensebles are NOT even close to suggesting what the 18z op run suggests, indeed many many runs give you guys rain, and a lot take this low well NW of where both the ECM and the GFS 18z has it, in fact they are overall possibly even worse then the 12z UKMO.

Hopefully the 0z sees both the UKMO/Ens come on board with the snowier evolution suggested by the GFS/ECM.

awww kold, now you've made me all sad if i missed the last good snowfall this winter im gonna be totally gutted

[kold weather]

Thank you Darren, the voice of sanity....the vast majority of these snow events are T+96 onwards...Pure FI....Still, makes for plenty of midland snowgasms!!

Don't get me wrong I'd love to see the 18z come off, I'm an extreme weather lover above all else I spose, plus I'm well used to watching things happen that will never effect me as well thnaks to the ole hurricanes...

Still there are some big ole differences on the GFS ensembles and UKMO compared to the NAE/ECM/GFS, its quite insane really how different they are even at 48hrs, I'd feel far more excited for you guys if it weren't for such a drastic difference. Still I'm pretty certain it will get resolved one way or the other tomorrow, at least for Mondays possible set-up.

Edited February 19, 2010 by kold weather

[TonyH]

No problem Not bad for a 3 megapixel phone camera that is over 2 years old :lol:

Good photos thanks, thick in Herefordshire then.

[A.J]

Don't get me wrong I'd love to see the 18z come off, I'm an extreme weather lover above all else I spose, plus I'm well used to watching things happen that will never effect me as well thnaks to the ole hurricanes...

Still there are some big ole differences on the GFS ensembles compared to the NAE/ECM/GFS, its quite insane really how different they are even at 48hrs, I'd feel far more excited for you guys if it weren't for such a drastic difference. Still I'm pretty certain it will get resolved one way or the other tomorrow, at least for Mondays possible set-up.

but the consequences of this, if it came off, would be almost unthinkable....hundreds of thousands probably without power....people unable to leave their homes to buy basic essentials...old age pensioners stuck in their homes, distribution networks ground to a halt, transportation paralyzed....sensationalist post?.....not if those snow depths played out!....Thank goodness, its pure FI, and very unlikely to play out

[Costa Del Fal]

NMM brings in 2 or 3 hours of Heavy snow here on Sunday morning.

[Herefordweather]

Quite funny you should post those pictures of the higher ground Andy in Herefordshire.

Here is Hereford we had a minor covering at the least and you could just tell that say 100m ASL higher than here would of been pasted as it hammered down.

[loopydreamer]

NMM brings in 2 or 3 hours of Heavy snow here on Sunday morning.

oooohh nice! lets hope that comes off!

[snowking]

Ok time to bring this thread down a peg or two, the GFS ensebles are NOT even close to suggesting what the 18z op run suggests, indeed many many runs give you guys rain, and a lot take this low well NW of where both the ECM and the GFS 18z has it, in fact they are overall possibly even worse then the 12z UKMO.

Hopefully the 0z sees both the UKMO/Ens come on board with the snowier evolution suggested by the GFS/ECM.

Hi Darren,

Completely agree with the above and I think after such a cold dec/jan people need to remain realistic, not because its the 'christmas pudding' or any of that same old jargon, but purely because we are now headed towards spring, the solar strength is increasing and models at the moment clearly are struggling - as nick pointed out over on the MO thread the NWP output isnt matching the expected upstream signals much at the moment. By following every model run we run the risk of going back to the good old days of snowwatch!

However one thing i'd be interested to get your views on. Forgive me if i'm talking out of context here because i'm not 100% sure what sort of range people are talking about here, but surely within the T+72 or even +96 sort of range we should be looking more at the operationals (and particularly the higher resolution GFS) than the ensembles given the uncertainty surrounding the track as its the operationals with their higher resolution which are more likely to be nearer the mark WRT the track of such systems as those this week. I completely understand where you're coming from in terms of very little support and the ensembles cannot simply be disregarded, but surely the operationals will be a better guide currently in the shorter term than the ensemble members

Forgive me and ignore the above if the discussion was based more around the mid term!

Kind Regards

SK

[kold weather]

but the consequences of this, if it came off, would be almost unthinkable....hundreds of thousands probably without power....people unable to leave their homes to buy basic essentials...old age pensioners stuck in their homes, distribution networks ground to a halt, transportation paralyzed....sensationalist post?.....not if those snow depths played out!....Thank goodness, its pure FI, and very unlikely to play out

Without a doubt it'd be one of the more severe events in the last 30 years I'd have thought if that came off.

As for the NMM, worth noting it will generally go along with the GFS, so if the GFS is wrong about sunday, more then likely the NMM will be wrong as well...certainly big differences..

Also despite what some may think, I'd rather you guys up there get it on Sunday since I've gotta get a train journey back to Chichester and the NAE would make that journey rather difficult!

[mackerel sky]

The 18z would probably be a snow to rain event for southerly parts of the Midlands on Sunday, though for more northerly parts it would be very good indeed with probably 5-7cms I'd iamgine...

Always dodgy taking the GFS 'precipitation type' forecast at face value I find in these parts. I struggle sometimes to associate the ensembles with the automated output... the automated output for 21hrs last night based on the 12z had only 850s of -1C, moderate rain, yet the ensemble graph for Northamptonshire looked more like -3 to -4C and obviously in the +6hr timeframe you wouldn't expect much scatter. Basically the end result was a fair old dump of snow. The GFS automated output isn't great in marginal setups, seems to automatically flag up anywhere with 850s less than -4C (in heavier precipitation) as snow, and -2C as rain. You can't really expect it to predict surface temperatures and dewpoints that accurately. Numerous occassions the GFS 'precipitation type' charts have implied rain or sleet, yet just like yesterday it was all snow. In such instances the Met Office seem to call it much better - and fair play to them with regards last night - their early warning was correct, and not the usual issue the flash warning once its already snowing heavily across a particular area.

Off to a friends wedding in Aldrige near Walsall tomorrow, fortunately only an hour in the car, because it will be absolutely lethal on the roads here first thing with frozen slush and dampness.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

still got snow from thurs night in places, yesterdays snow lying on roofs, had a sprinkling last night, a good chance of snow early tomorrow

00Z looks good for monday and the bbc

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

still got snow from thurs night in places, yesterdays snow lying on roofs, had a sprinkling last night, a good chance of snow early tomorrow

00Z looks good for monday and the bbc

Hi mark , i wouldnt want the 00z to be right cause if it is then the only thing we'l get monday is sleet, the ppn type shows this, i no things can change and we really need it to , the -5 air is sitting north of us , i no we dont need it to be -5 exactly but we need it as close as we can , i think things will alter still somewhat and its always good to see the bbc graphics looking good for us , which falls into line with the metos warning .

[Kirk Langley]

Thought I would share this with you from Weather On Line, doubt it will happen but still 25cm?

Tuesday 23/10

A cold day across Britain with many areas dry, sunny and frosty this morning. As heavy rain moves up from the south there is a risk of heavy snow for the West Country in the afternoon, fine for the rest of Britain. Heavy snow is expected to spread into much of central and southern England and Wales with a risk of widespread disruption. With strong winds some drifting is likely with the potential of up to 25cm in places. Highs of 1 to 4C.

[Nick L]

Thought I would share this with you from Weather On Line, doubt it will happen but still 25cm?

Tuesday 23/10

A cold day across Britain with many areas dry, sunny and frosty this morning. As heavy rain moves up from the south there is a risk of heavy snow for the West Country in the afternoon, fine for the rest of Britain. Heavy snow is expected to spread into much of central and southern England and Wales with a risk of widespread disruption. With strong winds some drifting is likely with the potential of up to 25cm in places. Highs of 1 to 4C.

With what the GFS has been suggesting 25cm would be nothing compared to what was being forecasted for the end of the week. Absolute insane period of model watching we are going through - long may it continue!

[conor123]

It seems the 18z the second day in a row then shown mega snow events for us.

Shame i missed it, the 00z is alright i guess but the 06z is rolling out now so no point taking it seriously.

What are we thinking then tonight? the fact there will be a clear start to the night with temperature's dipping widely to -2/-3c will help and dewpoints and 850pHa remains favourable for the Northern half of the region. However things look borderline for the rest of us.

Monday looks very similar to Thursday, only everything arriving much earlier so probably not much in the way of settling snow and not that much precipitation reaching here anyway.

[kold weather]

06z is the worst case in many ways now, because the low weakens too much and we don't get any drag down from the north, the result??

cold rain for much of the country, any snow risk is much further north on the 06z bar maybe some brief snow on early Monday...certainly not what you guys want though in the Midlands at least till Wednesday...

After that the whole pattern will reset to some extent, would be a shame to ruin such a great set-up because we can't get colder air down inbetween the lows...

Edited February 20, 2010 by kold weather

[Costa Del Fal]

Looks like a wet week coming up but not of the white variety for most of the time!

NMM especially but also the NAE still seem keen to bring in some heavy snow for a few hours at around 3-6am tomorrow.

Edited February 20, 2010 by Blizzards

[MKN]

Looks like a wet week coming up but not of the white variety for most of the time!

NMM especially but also the NAE still seem keen to bring in some heavy snow for a few hours at around 3-6am tomorrow.

I dont think a snowy week can be ruled out yet as really its to far away to say, Im waiting to see tonights 18z before looking to then. In the more immediate time frame and some heavy snow looks likely tommorow morning as you said probably better time of arrival for your area although looks like some very heavy stuff could hit here around 6-8am which is still 10x better than the 1-2pm that it has the last couple of days. I think another covering to top us up once again is definately on the cards for those north of northampton. If we could follow that up with a week as the 18z last night suggested we have a good foot or more in some places.

As for the 06z be interesting to see where the ensembles have the series of low pressure systems heading, im not expecting much agreement, with one 100miles further south and another 60 miles further north and so on.

Edited February 20, 2010 by SnowTornado

[Bolton67]

I think another covering to top us up once again is definately on the cards for those north of northampton.

[kold weather]

Yeah I wouldn't rule it out and the north of the region still looks pretty good IMO, and any SE adjustment to the lows will put the W.Midlands right back into the main frame again so to speak.

However we have other events before then to watch, starting with the early hours of tomorrow which look quite possible to give a 2-5cms covering depending on exactly how fast it whips through and whether you get the wrap around come back through.

The northern part of the Midlands still really needs to watch very closely IMO...

[MKN]

UK regions: North West England

Wales

Yorkshire & Humber

West Midlands

East Midlands

Heavy Snow Sun 21 Feb

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting much of Wales, the Midlands and southern parts of northern England. Snow will spread eastwards during the morning, giving widespread accumulations of 2 to 6 cm, and perhaps up to 10 cm locally, clearing away from all but eastern England by early afternoon.

Issued at: 1029 Sat 20 Feb

[conor123]

UK regions: North West England

Wales

Yorkshire & Humber

West Midlands

East Midlands

Heavy Snow Sun 21 Feb

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting much of Wales, the Midlands and southern parts of northern England. Snow will spread eastwards during the morning, giving widespread accumulations of 2 to 6 cm, and perhaps up to 10 cm locally, clearing away from all but eastern England by early afternoon.

Issued at: 1029 Sat 20 Feb

Oh great, they had to go and ruin our snow risk didn't they :lol:

[A.J]

Yeah I wouldn't rule it out and the north of the region still looks pretty good IMO, and any SE adjustment to the lows will put the W.Midlands right back into the main frame again so to speak.

However we have other events before then to watch, starting with the early hours of tomorrow which look quite possible to give a 2-5cms covering depending on exactly how fast it whips through and whether you get the wrap around come back through.

The northern part of the Midlands still really needs to watch very closely IMO...

Thanks for the update Darren.....

Its easy to forget that the 'Midlands' is a huge swathe of the country, and the GFS 06z shows the north of the region (north of Birmingham) would receive substantial snowfall, south of that area would receive a rain/wintry mix, with an emphasis on rain the further south you are...Plenty of time for that to all change, and eyes are focused first on tonights possibilities :lol:

[MKN]

East Midlands: Derby

Derbyshire

Lincolnshire

Nottingham

Nottinghamshire

Heavy Snow Wed 24 Feb

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of the UK. Rain spreading north may turn to snow and has the potential to give accumulations of more than 15 cm of fresh snow in places.

Issued at: 1042 Sat 20 Feb

Hopefully regions slightly further south will be added to that :lol:

[kold weather]

Thanks for the update Darren.....

Its easy to forget that the 'Midlands' is a huge swathe of the country, and the GFS 06z shows the north of the region (north of Birmingham) would receive substantial snowfall, south of that area would receive a rain/wintry mix, with an emphasis on rain the further south you are...Plenty of time for that to all change, and eyes are focused first on tonights possibilities

Where about would you class the northern limit of the Midlands before it becomes the north BTW, just south of Manchester maybe?

Ensembles show its VERY tight for you guys in the Midlands, all you need is the slightest drag down of the colder air to get snow from the front, the 06z doesn't quite get there really for most of the region, but its close enough to need very careful watching, esp for the more northern parts.