Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[kold weather]

Yep Nick to take the 12z GFS at face value when its well known to have bee over progressive in the past is a totally foolish error to make IMO, its the same with any model really...

Saying that it does remain very uncertain this early week period, I'd not say anything is nailed on at the moment quite honestly!

Best concentrate on tonight, goodness knows why thats not getting attention when there could well easily be a couple of inches from it!

[Nick L]

Yep Nick to take the 12z GFS at face value when its well known to have bee over progressive in the past is a totally foolish error to make IMO, its the same with any model really...

Saying that it does remain very uncertain this early week period, I'd not say anything is nailed on at the moment quite honestly!

Best concentrate on tonight, goodness knows why thats not getting attention when there could well easily be a couple of inches from it!

I certainly feel sorry for the poor souls doing the Countryfile forecasts tomorrow.

[Costa Del Fal]

Tonight is being ignored by many i think too much. A good inch or two is likely here and further North. The timing is perfect for us too.

Monday looks likely to see snow here right now but obviously the extent of the PPN around the low is uncertain thus we need to see this evenings and tomorrows runs really.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I'm surprised how much snow is left, after my high of 6.6C, dew points and upper air temps must be low, no snow on paths, but still on grass, in places still around 1cm, even still on roofs/sheds etc facing N

[andy_leics22]

tonight looking good, its very similar to the 28th Dec 2000, when a low moved in from the west, I got 3 inches from 3-6am, not expecting that much this time but its virtually the same

28th Dec 00

that then could be it, mondays snow looks off, not moving this far north, then Tues into Wed snow on leading edge before the atlantic rolls in on wednesday

That event was epic here. It started snowing around 6:30am, lasted till around 9am and gave us a nice 4-5 inch dumping I would like a repeat of that tonight!

Tonight is being ignored by many i think too much. A good inch or two is likely here and further North. The timing is perfect for us too.

Monday looks likely to see snow here right now but obviously the extent of the PPN around the low is uncertain thus we need to see this evenings and tomorrows runs really.

I agree, I am pretty optimistic about tonight. The timing looks good, the PPN should reach the Midlands by around 4-5am and the temp should be around 0c so it's good timing. Shame it will melt during the day tomorrow when it clears away but it will be nice to see.

[Harsh Climate]

I certainly feel sorry for the poor souls doing the Countryfile forecasts tomorrow.

Id put my bottom dollar on them being wrong!

Time and time again Ive seen brilliant countryfile forecasts, with large blobs of snow on the graphics, for it all to be nothing/rain when the event comes... Good job I know not to trust them, otherwise there would have been lots of dissapointment.

Just like the met office weather warnings, I said 2/3 days ago that yorkshire should have a warning for sunday rather than monday (which I think was pretty obviouse), only untill now (1 day before the event) have they changed it! An advanced warning 1 day before the event is extremly dire in my views. ok rant over lol....

[Potent Gust]

Be interesting to see what happens tonight. Just went to buy some wine and to my surprise I was greeted by a wintry shower.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

That event was epic here. It started snowing around 6:30am, lasted till around 9am and gave us a nice 4-5 inch dumping I would like a repeat of that tonight!

I agree, I am pretty optimistic about tonight. The timing looks good, the PPN should reach the Midlands by around 4-5am and the temp should be around 0c so it's good timing. Shame it will melt during the day tomorrow when it clears away but it will be nice to see.

was good yeah, and tonight does look good, hopefully not too much melt out of sun, still have thursdays now, after 2 days in late Feb

[kold weather]

Tonight is being ignored by many i think too much. A good inch or two is likely here and further North. The timing is perfect for us too.

Monday looks likely to see snow here right now but obviously the extent of the PPN around the low is uncertain thus we need to see this evenings and tomorrows runs really.

I suspect a lot of people's heads have been turned so to speak by the big events some of the models have progged and somewhat ignored what is a real good shot at some moderate snowfall tonight, as I've said before probably 2-4cms looks quite possible in the early hours of tomorrow morning and as you say timing is good.

As for Monday, as you say its a really uncertain evolution on Monday, there are some real tiny changes that could make a big difference. Hopefully the 12z NAE is close to the mark however.

[Costa Del Fal]

I suspect a lot of people's heads have been turned so to speak by the big events some of the models have progged and somewhat ignored what is a real good shot at some moderate snowfall tonight, as I've said before probably 2-4cms looks quite possible in the early hours of tomorrow morning and as you say timing is good.

As for Monday, as you say its a really uncertain evolution on Monday, there are some real tiny changes that could make a big difference. Hopefully the 12z NAE is close to the mark however.

Indeed, i think at this rate there will be a few surprised people when they wake up in the morning however it will probably melt quite readily in the daylight hours. As i went out this morning i could really notice that the sun makes things feel quite warmish now.

Regarding Monday i think the outcome will be fairly close to what the BBC/Meto/NAE thinks-something quite similar to Thursday.

[Bolton67]

I suspect a lot of people's heads have been turned so to speak by the big events some of the models have progged and somewhat ignored what is a real good shot at some moderate snowfall tonight, as I've said before probably 2-4cms looks quite possible in the early hours of tomorrow morning and as you say timing is good.

As for Monday, as you say its a really uncertain evolution on Monday, there are some real tiny changes that could make a big difference. Hopefully the 12z NAE is close to the mark however.

KW- the midlands is a huge place..from stoke to northamptonshire.

as for 2-4cms what area of the midland are you talking about??

[Strider]

Hi guys, just trying to catch up here.

Are we expecting ppn to bubble up from the Irish sea and head on over to the Midlands?

[Tom D]

I'm not in Leicester for the weekend, but I agree that it's looking good for this region tonight. Much better than I realised actually, as the METO/BBC were showing this precip to be rather broken and light but it seems it may be heavier than thought before.

Also looking good for Monday morning.

After that, things looking as bit less good as Wednesday might be too far north for this region, but the far northern midlands could do well at this stage. Time for things to change as always with a few days between now and then.

[A.J]

Yep, I'm looking forward to a nice covering tomorrow morning....Hopefully enough for snowman!

[loopydreamer]

Indeed, i think at this rate there will be a few surprised people when they wake up in the morning however it will probably melt quite readily in the daylight hours. As i went out this morning i could really notice that the sun makes things feel quite warmish now.

Regarding Monday i think the outcome will be fairly close to what the BBC/Meto/NAE thinks-something quite similar to Thursday.

well...im hoping for a nice snowfall in the early hours tomorrow! im on the night shift tonite so i'll be keeping an eye out between 03:00-06:00! im xtra hopeful because i missed the snow the other day! i was in kent visiting parents! good luck all

[beccaboo]

Hey All!!!

I'm in Long Eaton, whats my chances for snow tonight and what sort of time??!!!!!

[kold weather]

KW- the midlands is a huge place..from stoke to northamptonshire.

as for 2-4cms what area of the midland are you talking about??

Probably a decent chunk of it given the system wil lbe moving more or less W-E, maybe a little less in the east, esp far east where temps maybe a little high for settling snow but exact timings are gonna be key!

[Arctic Hare]

I'm surprised how much snow is left, after my high of 6.6C, dew points and upper air temps must be low, no snow on paths, but still on grass, in places still around 1cm, even still on roofs/sheds etc facing N

Yes, it's pretty similar here. My back garden looks very odd: the top half (which catches the sun) has been green all day, yet at the bottom end (where it's stayed shady) there's over an inch lying still!

As far as tonight goes, I'm hopeful of seeing something here, especially as it's below freezing now (-0.6°C), though I would be very surprised if we managed the 8cm that December 2000 brought. Not that I'd complain!

[Nick L]

Looks like some very potent showers coming into view on the NW radar, should be some fun and games later.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Looks like some very potent showers coming into view on the NW radar, should be some fun and games later.

Hi mate, i meant to ask did you go to the Cardiff-wba game lol, i was there impressed by your supporters.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Looks like some very potent showers coming into view on the NW radar, should be some fun and games later.

I'm hoping, down to -0.7°C now, can hope for a Dec 00, but will settle for a 31st Jan this year 1 inch with everything white

[Nick L]

Hi mate, i meant to ask did you go to the Cardiff-wba game lol, i was there impressed by your supporters.

Nah lol. Well we were chuffed that you played the liquidator at half time though...

[Serendipity]

The showers are moving slightly NE yes? So the big clump will miss most of the midlands...

[kold weather]

Looks like some very potent showers coming into view on the NW radar, should be some fun and games later.

Yep thats the start of the frontal development occuring there Nick, models suggest it should continue to get more precip filling in the holes over the next 3-6hrs, then cross Wales and reach the west Midlands early in the morning. This is probably the perfect time of day for such a feature to arrive in a marginal set-up as the night time cooling has helped out.

So for the next 6hrs or so, keep an eye on those temps and dews...

[Nick L]

I'm hoping, down to -0.7°C now, can hope for a Dec 00, but will settle for a 31st Jan this year 1 inch with everything white

I'm not worried at all about the temperatures - it will hit at the perfect time. Looks like precipitation will be both intense and fairly prolonged so a couple of inches should be easily achievable.