Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[MKN]

West Midlands: Shropshire

Staffordshire

Stoke-on-Trent

Telford + Wrekin

Heavy Snow Wed 24 Feb

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of the UK. Rain spreading north may turn to snow and has the potential to give accumulations of more than 15 cm of fresh snow in places.

Issued at: 1042 Sat 20 Feb

For you lot further west :lol:

[kev238]

I must admit I always wonder whether Nottingham is classed as Northern part of Midlands. I know it is the East Midlands but it level with Stoke in terms of how far North it is.

It all looks on a knife edge for next week-- very wet or very white-- much better the further North that you are!

[Nick L]

I honestly don't know what part of the Midlands to class myself as. I am pretty much slap bang in the middle, but being north of Birmingham I am in the northern half, but more north-central. Still, I am just about inside the warning zone for Wednesday!

[Bolton67]

I honestly don't know what part of the Midlands to class myself as. I am pretty much slap bang in the middle, but being north of Birmingham I am in the northern half, but more north-central. Still, I am just about inside the warning zone for Wednesday!

We are also confused here in Northampton. technically we are in the East Mids but also border oxfordshire, Bucks, bedfordshire and Cambs. so, we could be in East Anglia or the South East.

Confused.com

[kold weather]

I used to always take a line from say Stoke across to Lincoln as my northern limit to the Midlands, still just something I was pondering.

Either way tonight is looking interesting, western Midlands have the greatest risk though the East do have a real risk as well but as I said in the EA thread it is more dependant on the timings in the east, where as the west should be ok because barring some bad model progs it'll arrive during the eveing hours regardless...

I'd guess probably 2-4cms as a general rule of thumb for tonight..watch the radar over the next few hours for the region to start showing itself over Ireland.

Hopefully this is the first snow event of a very good week for some, and as Ian F said in the SW thread, whoever cops it the UKMO are looking at totals of 25-29cms!

[laheymichele]

yes the northern limit to the midlands is stoke on trent and leek

Edited February 20, 2010 by laheymichele

[PolarWarsaw]

Tonight looks interesting i'd imagine the northern half of the region could fare quite well if im honest. Monday looks very very marginal, that usually spells disaster for me. Middle of next week also has potential.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

still got snow left even at 5C, should be snow in early hours, but monday warnings taken off meto for all areas

[Nick L]

still got snow left even at 5C, should be snow in early hours, but monday warnings taken off meto for all areas

They have been moved to Sunday I think Mark. The Sunday warnings weren't there before.

[Potent Gust]

Hopeful of another covering through the night. Still got lying snow from Thursday in my back garden. Finally looks like turning milder for the start of March. But what a winter!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

They have been moved to Sunday I think Mark. The Sunday warnings weren't there before.

Yeah but I would have thought it should be for both days, as the monday threat is still there, bbc give me heavy snow, although gfs precip charts not convincing

lol wouldnt like to be in Devon currently metcheck , many want a warm summer but not that warm

Edited February 20, 2010 by mark forster 630

[Gord]

I'm suprised no one has mentioned how beautiful it is today. Blue skies and fluffy clouds...although not that warm it feels nice in the sun. Makes me look foward to the first 15C of the year. By this time next week I'll be looking fo it in the models.

I say forget snow for now and get outside today and enjoy it. We'll talk about the white stuff again this evening!

[Nick L]

A rogue, light snow shower here now.

[Bolton67]

I'm suprised no one has mentioned how beautiful it is today. Blue skies and fluffy clouds...although not that warm it feels nice in the sun. Makes me look foward to the first 15C of the year. By this time next week I'll be looking fo it in the models.

Agreed!

Having just spent the last week in Tenerife with temps of 25c-27c , I'm now wanting spring to come banging through the door with temps of 14c-16c . not a great welcome home i got in the early hours of this morning with snow in Northampton.

Been a great winter for cold lovers but enough is enough now.

[Cornflake Girl]

We had a fresh dusting of snow this morning and it has literally just started sleeting here.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Some lovely decorative shower clouds amongst the blue sky, with lots of light greyish-blue and yellow tones to them.

[azores92]

Some lovely decorative shower clouds amongst the blue sky, with lots of light greyish-blue and yellow tones to them.

NAE 12z holds a lot of promise for the midlands over the coming days, whereas the 12z gfs shows the lows progressing too far west, and eventually heights build over europe, and subsequently the uk. not a great run really

this made me laugh: weatheronlines uk forecast

Tuesday

Another windy, cold and wet day across the southern half of England and the whole of Wales. The precipitation turning more persistent across Wales and southern England.HOUSES WILL BE TURNING HEAVY into the afternoon over southern England, this falling as snow through Wales and the Midlands. There is the threat of significant snowfall over Wales and the Midlands. A few snow flurries through northern England and much of Ireland. Scotland will have more broken cloud, a few snow flurries on the hills. Highs of 2 to 6C.

houses will be turning heavy?

Edited February 20, 2010 by azores92

[Nick L]

Why is it so dead in here?!

New advisory out from the Met for Monday:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wm/wm_forecast_warnings.html

Seeing as though I am less than one mile away from the West Midlands county, I am pretty much inside that zone

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS is dreadful for next week. Looking good enough in the short term and the BBC maps suggesting perhaps prolonged heavy snow on Monday.

NAE 12z holds a lot of promise for the midlands over the coming days, whereas the 12z gfs shows the lows progressing too far west, and eventually heights build over europe, and subsequently the uk. not a great run really

this made me laugh: weatheronlines uk forecast

Tuesday

Another windy, cold and wet day across the southern half of England and the whole of Wales. The precipitation turning more persistent across Wales and southern England.HOUSES WILL BE TURNING HEAVY into the afternoon over southern England, this falling as snow through Wales and the Midlands. There is the threat of significant snowfall over Wales and the Midlands. A few snow flurries through northern England and much of Ireland. Scotland will have more broken cloud, a few snow flurries on the hills. Highs of 2 to 6C.

houses will be turning heavy?

They will be with all our 'supposed snow'.

[MKN]

I think the gfs has put a downer on things, even though it looks the unlikely bet i think everyone knows it doesnt mean it wont be right. Hopefully tonight when the 18z comes out, if things look better and the radar starts to look interesting then people should start posting there thoughts. Looks like an all snow event for most of this region tomorrow morning, the key to snow totals will come down to timing, id expect the temp to stay below 0 upto around 9am so anything falling before then should definately settle. The further west ovbviously you will be better off in that regard. Its 50/50 here on the timing id like it to be moved through here by around 10am latest. BBC shows that being the case but the NAE suggests otherwise.

5/10 cms seems about right for this, and if things go well mondays snow would only add more on top. Notice that after tonight metoffice warnings go from 5-10cms of snow to 5-10cms of fresh snow. suggests to me accumulation on top of the snow from the day before which has been lacking wednesday and thursday just gone.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

tonight looking good, its very similar to the 28th Dec 2000, when a low moved in from the west, I got 3 inches from 3-6am, not expecting that much this time but its virtually the same

28th Dec 00

that then could be it, mondays snow looks off, not moving this far north, then Tues into Wed snow on leading edge before the atlantic rolls in on wednesday

[MKN]

tonight looking good, its very similar to the 28th Dec 2000, when a low moved in from the west, I got 3 inches from 3-6am, not expecting that much this time but its virtually the same

28th Dec 00

that then could be it, mondays snow looks off, not moving this far north, then Tues into Wed snow on leading edge before the atlantic rolls in on wednesday

I wouldnt rule out monday if i were you quite yet, it seems to me that in order to know where one system is heading we need to see where the system the day before has gone to get a clearer idea. Puts f1 at +24

[Nick L]

tonight looking good, its very similar to the 28th Dec 2000, when a low moved in from the west, I got 3 inches from 3-6am, not expecting that much this time but its virtually the same

28th Dec 00

that then could be it, mondays snow looks off, not moving this far north, then Tues into Wed snow on leading edge before the atlantic rolls in on wednesday

Come on Mark, you should know better than writing everything off from one over-progressive GFS run.

Flash warning out already for tonight:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wm/wm_forecast_warnings.html

2-6cm with 10cm locally.

[camperstron]

I am still here! I've been thinking rather than posting though.

I am concerned - since thursday nights fantasy run (which I keep on thinking about and chuckling over!!) I really think that for midweek the scenario for us will be 'liquid phase snow'

I reckon that we will get a bit of the white stuff overnight sun - into Mon and that will be it.

I hope to be proved wrong, but until I'm buried under a foot or more of snow I am being cautious.

[Nick L]

I am still here! I've been thinking rather than posting though.

I am concerned - since thursday nights fantasy run (which I keep on thinking about and chuckling over!!) I really think that for midweek the scenario for us will be 'liquid phase snow'

I reckon that we will get a bit of the white stuff overnight sun - into Mon and that will be it.

I hope to be proved wrong, but until I'm buried under a foot or more of snow I am being cautious.

Last night's GFS run was even better. This mornings runs weren't too bad, the 12z is pants yes, but it's just one run.