Model Output Discussion

[Cheese Rice]

It's becoming very tedious now!! enough is enough.

Looking at the models, HP still dominates us next week. cold and frosty at night, chilly during the day but feeling pleasant in any sunshine.

Boring in other words.

We always complain that we don't get any sunshine and after a particularly cloudy Feb any sunshine is most welcome, although I would prefer a easterly/Northerly before the sun gets too strong making conditions more marginal.

[J10]

I suspect any milder weather will be from mild sw's with plenty of rain, I think we are better of in dry and sunny weather.

Indeed

Long may the current weather continue.

We always complain that we don't get any sunshine and after a particularly cloudy Feb any sunshine is most welcome, although I would prefer a easterly/Northerly before the sun gets too strong making conditions more marginal.

For western areas it has been a drier and sunnier winter than eastern areas, both in terms of anomalies and actual figures observed.

http://www.meto.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/#

[La Bise]

It's becoming very tedious now!! enough is enough.

Looking at the models, HP still dominates us next week. cold and frosty at night, chilly during the day but feeling pleasant in any sunshine.

Boring in other words.

Go out, enjoy the sun, do something!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Go out, enjoy the sun, do something!

I'm not sure what his problem is - all winter he was talking about how bad cold and snow is and how he'd rather have undisruptive weather - this is as benign as weather gets i'm afraid!

[guitarnutter]

Go out

He lives in Northampton

[Cheese Rice]

I think some people are forgetting we have until October for warm-hot Sunny days, no point wishing winter away early, you will miss it once it's gone.

[Avain]

I think some people are forgetting we have until October for warm-hot Sunny days, no point wishing winter away early, you will miss it once it's gone.

Although we have not had the snow (In the south at least) for as long as the 1963 winter, certainly we seem to have retained the cold for as long, I'm wondering what impact it will have on the Birds and Gardening etc, already Sand Martins have been seen here, but are there sufficient insects around to feed on? You get what your given with weather of course, but I will be glad when it starts to warm up a bit and not just for my own sake, although there is little sign of it happening on the current charts, though the 06z 180 GFS looks quite good, it's way off in the distance.

Edited March 7, 2010 by Avain

[The PIT]

Well again no sign of a coming warm spell. Pleasant by day cold by night only later on in the week does cloud start ingress. Going to be interesting watching how the models develop in the comings days. If GP is right we should see more hints of northerlies being the main theme.

[Polar Continental]

Well again no sign of a coming warm spell. Pleasant by day cold by night only later on in the week does cloud start ingress. Going to be interesting watching how the models develop in the comings days. If GP is right we should see more hints of northerlies being the main theme.

The GEM continues with the northerly theme, now at T132. The GFS and ECM also show something of a northerly, but both those models project it to quickly collapse and allow a milder westerly flow to follow as the Jet migrates northward towards southern England.

The GEM however forecasts the northerly to be a more potent and longer lasting feature, as high pressure remains to the northwest.

Probably the most likely outcome, as this matches GP’s continuing theme of below average temperature through March.

GEM at T132

GEM at T156

[yamkin]

The GEM continues with the northerly theme, now at T132. The GFS and ECM also show something of a northerly, but both those models project it to quickly collapse and allow a milder westerly flow to follow as the Jet migrates northward towards southern England.

The GEM however forecasts the northerly to be a more potent and longer lasting feature, as high pressure remains to the northwest.

Probably the most likely outcome, as this matches GP’s continuing theme of below average temperature through March.

GEM at T132

GEM at T156

Trend setter GFS 6Z on 6th March also showed a Northerly around the same time frame.

Today's ECM 0Z 240h is showing a Northerly

[TEITS]

I didn't look at yesterdays output but I must admit after looking at the 0Zs my first reaction was "oh no not more cold weather"!.

Im not convinced of the N,ly shown by the GEM but equally im not convinced about the UKMO output. A N,ly of some kind does look likely but how strong, prolonged remains to be seen or will it be a brief N,ly following by a toppler bringing a return of W,lys.

I will say this though. If the N,lys do occur during this month then it obviously won't help those below average SSTs. I pity anyone taking an early summer holiday along the Norfolk coast this spring/summer. When a warm spell does eventually arrive there could be massive temp differences between the coast/inland. Any early bathers will have a shock!!

Edited March 7, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[bluearmy]

the northerly around T144 is likely to be transient. the ecm is closer to the current preferred extended ens output of stronger northerly just after mid month. GEM may be a little overdone but the scandi trough cannot be underestimated - its been as much a part of our past few months as the blocking to the north.

[glosteroldboy]

After Monday is it looking much more normal British weather next week, i.e cloudy/grey/murky? Still looks dry which is a bonus and probably lose the frosts?

[nick sussex]

Still alot of uncertainty regarding the end of the week with this possible northerly,it does however look shortlived , the GEM and a major switch from the NOGAPS 06hrs run which pulls the Scandi trough further west look the best for a cold shot.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

Interestingly the NOGAPS has followed the earlier GEM quite closely.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

I think for northern areas a better chance of at least getting a little snow, especially the ne and eastern Scotland, still the UKMO doesn't want to know and the ECM is halfhearted.

Unbelievably theres heavy snow forecast for east of here with as much as 10cms generally and as much as 40cms for the eastern Pyrenees, expecting some lighter snow here but the winter just doesn't seem to want to end for central and southern Europe. To be honest I'm ready for some spring warmth which down here can be very pleasant.

[weather_it_will]

Staying cool for my region, and after the 15th there is no agreement on any mild weather,

but looks like it's remaining cold but less frosts at night.

[Thundery wintry showers]

My stance on HP- welcome as long as there's plenty of sunshine, boring otherwise, but this looks like staying as a "sunny" high. Sunshine and frosty nights for most parts over the next 4-5 days then, although we have to watch for the possibility of some cloud coming into southern areas on the southern flank of the high. The latest GFS run does not suggest much in the way of cloud. After that, the end is (temporarily?) in sight with a brief northerly outbreak, and I won't be surprised if this upgrades nearer the time, though at the same time it could stay as that transient 36 hour thing shown by the GFS.

I would like to mention that the impact of SSTs is being rather overstated here. SSTs will have been well below normal during the springs of 1947 and 1955 but it didn't stop the subsequent summers from being scorchers. In recent times one could point to 1996 as an example of very cold late-spring SSTs but most places being warmer and sunnier than average during the summer.

As some others have remarked, nothing above average temperature-wise for the foreseeable future.

[The PIT]

My stance on HP- welcome as long as there's plenty of sunshine, boring otherwise, but this looks like staying as a "sunny" high. Sunshine and frosty nights for most parts over the next 4-5 days then, although we have to watch for the possibility of some cloud coming into southern areas on the southern flank of the high. The latest GFS run does not suggest much in the way of cloud. After that, the end is (temporarily?) in sight with a brief northerly outbreak, and I won't be surprised if this upgrades nearer the time, though at the same time it could stay as that transient 36 hour thing shown by the GFS.

I would like to mention that the impact of SSTs is being rather overstated here. SSTs will have been well below normal during the springs of 1947 and 1955 but it didn't stop the subsequent summers from being scorchers. In recent times one could point to 1996 as an example of very cold late-spring SSTs but most places being warmer and sunnier than average during the summer.

As some others have remarked, nothing above average temperature-wise for the foreseeable future.

According the country file forecast it isn't going to be a sunny high. By Tuesday it will be mainly cloudy so temps below average by day but very likely to be above by night so temps could end up being near average. A cold front later in the week may re-introduce clearer weather when it moves south. So a boring week coming up by all accounts. Can't stand dull grey rubbish.

Edited March 7, 2010 by The PIT

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The suggested northerly in the models would probably be less cold if it happens than the current gloriously cold and sunny easterly!

You can't get better cleaner air and visibility than this and after the incessant rain and gloom of the second half of Feb in the south of the UK, this pattern is exactly what was wanted

[Snowyowl9]

The suggested northerly in the models would probably be less cold if it happens than the current gloriously cold and sunny easterly!

You can't get better cleaner air and visibility than this and after the incessant rain and gloom of the second half of Feb in the south of the UK, this pattern is exactly what was wanted

Yep totally agree that N-ly shown will be less cold than what we have today unless we have something like this.

1.4cmax lowest max march 2006

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2006/Rrea00120060303.gif

Today is glorious 1.9c max so far E/SE. A smiley for great would be better.

Edited March 7, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[Duncan McAlister]

According the country file forecast it isn't going to be a sunny high. By Tuesday it will be mainly cloudy so temps below average by day but very likely to be above by night so temps could end up being near average. A cold front later in the week may re-introduce clearer weather when it moves south. So a boring week coming up by all accounts. Can't stand dull grey rubbish.

Yep, looks like West (and North) is best this coming week

However those BBC Weather maps do tend to overstate amounts of cloud in these high pressures, it can show a blanket of cloud for the whole country but this doesn't show up the bright/sunny spells.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Yep totally agree that N-ly shown will be less cold than what we have today unless we have something like this.

1.4cmax lowest max march 2006

http://www.wetterzen...00120060303.gif

Today is glorious 1.9c max so far E/SE. A smiley for great would be better.

I'm not sure we can expect that kind of 2006 northerly - however on the other hand I do wonder if the models might prove to be too keen to flatten the jet over the next day or two? I can see quite a lot of supporting factors to maintain pressure fairly high to the north west and west, even if it doesn't migrate to Greenland. And pressure staying low over Scandinavia. The risk with pressure rising further and further towards Greenland of course is that it all goes too far north west and we would just go back to atlantic lows and the endless chilly rain of Feb (minus the snow potential)

In an ideal world I would be very happy if this weekends weather kept continuing for reasons as we have given. Perhaps this smiley is appropriate

Edited March 7, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Thundery wintry showers]

According the country file forecast it isn't going to be a sunny high. By Tuesday it will be mainly cloudy so temps below average by day but very likely to be above by night so temps could end up being near average. A cold front later in the week may re-introduce clearer weather when it moves south. So a boring week coming up by all accounts. Can't stand dull grey rubbish.

I agree with the opinion re. dull grey weather, but I disagree with the cloudy outlook suggested by Countryfile- I'm not sure where a large mass of cloud comes from, except perhaps the southeast for a time, and even in the SE much depends on the precise positioning of the high. Only time will tell as to who's right though!

[TEITS]

I would like to mention that the impact of SSTs is being rather overstated here. SSTs will have been well below normal during the springs of 1947 and 1955 but it didn't stop the subsequent summers from being scorchers. In recent times one could point to 1996 as an example of very cold late-spring SSTs but most places being warmer and sunnier than average during the summer.

I assume its my post your referring to.

Im not saying the SSTS will prevent any hot weather and if you read my post correctly you will see that. What im saying is any warm spells during April, May, June may see coastal regions much colder than inland locations. Now I here you saying "this is always the case with sea breezes" which is true. However what im saying is the difference between inland and coastal locations could be even more noticeable than previous years due to the below average SSTs. This could especially be the case along the Norfolk coast.

[Thundery wintry showers]

But below average SSTs can be overcome in a relatively short space of time by a warm spell of weather- just like high SSTs can be sent plummeting towards average and below after just a couple of weeks of cold winter weather, as happened last December and also happened in December 1995 following the warm autumn.

SSTs were pretty low in April 2006 following an average to fairly cold winter and a cold early spring, but in July 2006, helped by the anomalous persistence of southerlies which helped fend off the sea breezes, many North Sea coasts experienced comparable anomalies to other areas of the country with many coastal parts of NE England registering average maxima of 23-24C as compared with a long-term average of 19C.

[Cheese Rice]

Just looked at the GFS and it is a definite upgrade form yesterdays outputs, yesterdays runs showed -5 850's clipping NE Scotland/England, latest GFS shows -10 850's over Scotland and parts of N England, there appears to be a shift slightly further west as well which is giving a better northerly.

Personally I think the models are under estimating the potential northerly, I wouldn't be surprised if we see several upgrades in the coming days. With a trend to push the northerly further west and allowing a more prolonged arctic feed, compared to the brief 24 hour toppler shown on the GFS. This may not happen but if it did we would easily troughs and polar lows forming, especially as the flow is straight from the Arctic with zero modification.

Edited March 7, 2010 by 10123