August CET

[summer blizzard]

15.9C to the 11th

Yesterday came in at 14.5C

Last night was milder at 12.1C, however maximas are quite supressed today, so no move likely. We could fall to 15.7C in the next couple of days and then it looks like a run of days where movement of the CET will be minimal. I wouldn't be suprised to see 15.7C or 15.8C as the value as we head into the final 3rd of the month.

14.5C must be the coolest since early June??

Going by a mixture of the models and BBC forecasts, a possible drop over the next few days is likely, with no movement sunday-tuesday before we see another drop from wednesday, possibly quite a large one given the forecasts from the GFS and GEM models which have a trough pretty much on top of us supressing maxima before a northerly push.

I am confident of a CET below 15.5C to the 20th.

[North-Easterly Blast]

It can happen, the best example of recent times I can think of was August 1984. The second half was hot with a CET of about 18.9 compared to overall CET of 17.6 for that month.

The second half of August 1955 also had a CET of around 19.1 or 19.2, which I believe is the warmest second half of August on record. The monthly mean CET for that month ended at 18.1, as the first half was less warm than the second half.

Also what about August 1987. That had a cool first half at around 14.7, and the second half was warmer at 16.5, ending the CET for that month at 15.6.

However, two Augusts in recent years, 2005 and 2008, have had warmer second halves than the first, although not by a large amount.

Edited August 12, 2010 by North-Easterly Blast

[AderynCoch]

The second half of August 1955 also had a CET of around 19.1 or 19.2, which I believe is the warmest second half of August on record.

The second half of August 1947 was warmer (19.4C).

[The PIT]

Well GFS has flip flopped and the warmth has gone again. Settled spell down to one day so CET should have overall gentle down pressure on it. Until the next GFS run which may show summer again in FI.

I'm not even thinking about my guess.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks like a small drop up to the 15th where we should be on 15.7C, then going by the 12z GFS we would remain at 15.7C until the 20th, with cool days and mild nights.

[summer blizzard]

Looks like a small drop up to the 15th where we should be on 15.7C, then going by the 12z GFS we would remain at 15.7C until the 20th, with cool days and mild nights.

Surely the output would give a lower CET to the 20th, even if minima are held up, maxima look sufficiently low for the daily CET to average in the 14C's.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Surely the output would give a lower CET to the 20th, even if minima are held up, maxima look sufficiently low for the daily CET to average in the 14C's.

After the 16th, the mins looked to be generally around 12C to 14C, with maxes around 17C to 19C, not a big enough deviation from average to really move it much from around 15.7C imo.

If anything though, the 18z looks a bit warmer so perhaps a little closer to 16C by the 20th.

[The PIT]

After the 16th, the mins looked to be generally around 12C to 14C, with maxes around 17C to 19C, not a big enough deviation from average to really move it much from around 15.7C imo.

If anything though, the 18z looks a bit warmer so perhaps a little closer to 16C by the 20th.

Dunno GFS is also showing low 20's so there could be a push upwards. Taking the fact that ecm and gfs have been chopping and changing the confidence in the temps turning up as predicted has got to be low.

So anywhere between 15.5C and rather less unlikely 16.2C is still possible.

We're now entering into the period of mega heatwave to get the higher CET values predicted.

[Stu_London]

We're now entering into the period of mega heatwave to get the higher CET values predicted.

The mega heatwave in your imagination

Based on all available operation and ensemble output, still nothing to suggest that we will see any significant rises in the short term.

Very happy (again) with my punt of 15.8C

[Optimus Prime]

August would need to average 21.0c to equal the warmest summer on record (1976) at 17.76c

To equal the very cold summer of 1909 August would have to average 9.49c

[Stu_London]

Yesterday came in at 15.7C so to the 12th we remain on 15.9C

Last night was 12.0C and maxima in the CET zone today are a touch down on yesterday so tomorrows update could well be 15.8C

[BornFromTheVoid]

Dunno GFS is also showing low 20's so there could be a push upwards. Taking the fact that ecm and gfs have been chopping and changing the confidence in the temps turning up as predicted has got to be low.

So anywhere between 15.5C and rather less unlikely 16.2C is still possible.

I'd agree with that somewhat. Todays runs look a little warmer than yesterdays, but thanks to a few sub 15C days I think will hold quite steady until the 20th. I doubt we will move more than 0.3C from where we are now until then.

At this stage, anywhere between 15.2-16.5C looks good for months end, with my 15.9C smack in the middle

Edited August 13, 2010 by NaDamantaSam

[summer blizzard]

I'd agree with that somewhat. Todays runs look a little warmer than yesterdays, but thanks to a few sub 15C days I think will hold quite steady until the 20th. I doubt we will move more than 0.3C from where we are now until then.

At this stage, anywhere between 15.2-16.5C looks good for months end, with my 15.9C smack in the middle

I would pretty much agree with that, ECWMF would have days averaging between 15.5C and 16.5C generally, while GFS would have days averaging between 14.5C and 15.5C. I still believe that the GFS is more on the ball with the trough east of the UK as it was before Tropical Storm Colin entered the Jet Stream.

[summer blizzard]

GFS18z is a shocker, not one above average day until the 29th.

[The PIT]

GFS and ECM runs once again show a warmer solution. Keeps the confusion and guessing going.

[Gavin P]

Eden's Manley is down to 15.5 already this month. From there, you wouldn't rule out a sub 15 CET, IMO.

I think a pretty big reduction can be expected by Hadley at the end of the month...

Edited August 14, 2010 by Gavin P

[BornFromTheVoid]

15.8C to the 13th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Today's minimum is 12.3C, but once again todays max temperatures look very low, so another drop by tomorrow to 15.7C I'd say.

After the drop tomorrow, it looks like a gradual rise to 15.9C or 16C by the 20th. On the 12z GFS, it looks like turning very warm after that, though I guess that's FI by that stage.

[summer blizzard]

15.8C to the 13th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Today's minimum is 12.3C, but once again todays max temperatures look very low, so another drop by tomorrow to 15.7C I'd say.

After the drop tomorrow, it looks like a gradual rise to 15.9C or 16C by the 20th. On the 12z GFS, it looks like turning very warm after that, though I guess that's FI by that stage.

Looks can be desptive as the GFS12z shows. Looks to me to be fairly cool until thursday, possible small drops, GFS then brings in warmth for next friday-sunday, however maxima would be supresed because it has rain slap bang over the south east before bringing a northerly lasting until the 27th. In conclusion, nothing settled on the horizon, and potentially some exceptional rainfall totals. I am ever more confident that a below average August is once again ours and sub 15.4C (2007) is odds on..

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks can be desptive as the GFS12z shows. Looks to me to be fairly cool until thursday, possible small drops, GFS then brings in warmth for next friday-sunday, however maxima would be supresed because it has rain slap bang over the south east before bringing a northerly lasting until the 27th. In conclusion, nothing settled on the horizon, and potentially some exceptional rainfall totals. I am ever more confident that a below average August is once again ours and sub 15.4C (2007) is odds on..

I suppose we'll see. After tomorrow, the only thing that looks significantly below average is the night of the 18th as far as I can see. It does look very cool though after the 21st but I feel as though the northerly is getting pushed back ever so slightly. What would your guess be by the 20th so?

[BornFromTheVoid]

15.8C to the 14th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday came in at 15.9C. The max for yesterday was 19.6C, which seems much to high to me, I thought it was closer to 17C?

Anywho, todays minimum is down as 12.2C and max tepms today look like being over 21C so could see a small rise by tomorrow. Seems as though the GFS has been consistently ~2C too low with it's mins lately as well.

Edited August 15, 2010 by NaDamantaSam

[Gavin P]

15.8C to the 14th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday came in at 15.9C. The max for yesterday was 19.6C, which seems much to high to me, I thought it was closer to 17C?

Anywho, todays minimum is down as 12.2C and max tepms today look like being over 21C so could see a small rise by tomorrow. Seems as though the GFS has been consistently ~2C too low with it's mins lately as well.

Yes, I'm very suspicious about these updates over the last few days. I reakon we could see an end of month correction of as much as 0.4c.

Edited August 15, 2010 by Gavin P

[summer blizzard]

I've had a close look at the long range models, and while they show differing solutions in FI, there is a pattern for the next week.

Today and tommorow may see small rises so that the CET is around 16.0C to the 16th, afterward the tuesday to thursday period looks quite cool with the first <5C isotherm into western England which should result in some pretty low maxima and minima, so a possible drop to the 19th to 15.7C, afterward the models differ, with GEM not bringing in any warmth, ECWMF bringing in warmth for friday-sunday and GFS bringing warmth for friday-monday, afterwards GFS and GEM both go for cooler weather, though ECWMF keeps a fairly mild pattern.

[The PIT]

15.8C to the 14th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday came in at 15.9C. The max for yesterday was 19.6C, which seems much to high to me, I thought it was closer to 17C?

Anywho, todays minimum is down as 12.2C and max tepms today look like being over 21C so could see a small rise by tomorrow. Seems as though the GFS has been consistently ~2C too low with it's mins lately as well.

We got 19C yesterday in late afternoon sun so 19.6C elsewhere wouldn't surprise me.

[BornFromTheVoid]

We got 19C yesterday in late afternoon sun so 19.6C elsewhere wouldn't surprise me.

I think northern and north eastern England were warmer than the majority of the CET zone yesterday. That's just the impression I got from glancing at the xcweather site a few times during the day at least. After the CET update I checked their temperature animation earlier to make sure I remembered correctly it seemed to back up what I thought.

Suppose we'll see when the corrections come in end of month, if I still remember this!

[The PIT]

If the GFS is right after this week CET could start rising again. Overall this week it should stay the same more or less as the cool spells should be offset by some warmer spells. The warmer runs seems to be more frequent than the cooler runs so this maybe the trend for the rest of the month then maybe not.