August CET

[BornFromTheVoid]

15.9C to the 15th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 17.2C. Minimum for today is 11.1C and maxima looks like being around 22C so probably not much change. A drop then the following 2 days or so looks likely down to 15.7C, before we see the CET shoot up next weekend, possibly as high as 16.3C by the 22nd. Once again the cool north westerly is being pushed back into FI...

[Stu_London]

CET to the 15th - 15.9C

Yesterday was 17.2C and last night was 11.1C

The working week is likely to pan out around or just above 16C on average, so either 15.9C or 16.0C by friday.

Thereafter, the ensembles offer the best clue, with a warmer phase being followed by a cooler phase likely for the last third of the month.

Overall nothing to suggest that CET will plummett or skyrocket as we get towards the end of the month.

I am expecting some downward revision as some of the minimums in the last week look too high when compared with observations at official stations within the CET area.

[The PIT]

15.9C to the 15th should be 16C by tomorrow should be around 16.1 - 16.2C by the end of the week. If the GFS is right in FI land it could be a slow rise after that.

[Stu_London]

worth bearing in mind that 1C above average in the final week of August is about equal to average conditions in the first week of the month.

It is therefore possible for above average conditions contributing to a static or falling rolling CET figure for the month.

This is even more pronounced in September to November when average daily temps fall 3C-4C during the course of each month

[coram]

CET to the 15th - 15.9C

Yesterday was 17.2C and last night was 11.1C

The working week is likely to pan out around or just above 16C on average, so either 15.9C or 16.0C by friday.

Thereafter, the ensembles offer the best clue, with a warmer phase being followed by a cooler phase likely for the last third of the month.

Overall nothing to suggest that CET will plummett or skyrocket as we get towards the end of the month.

I am expecting some downward revision as some of the minimums in the last week look too high when compared with observations at official stations within the CET area.

Make your mind up Stu. One minute you're infering that a warm last third is possible, the next your guessing that a cooler last third is likely. I think your first guess is nearer the mark, with the GFS progressively backing this up. 16.7 is my guess for the final figure.

[summer blizzard]

15.9C to the 15th

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 17.2C. Minimum for today is 11.1C and maxima looks like being around 22C so probably not much change. A drop then the following 2 days or so looks likely down to 15.7C, before we see the CET shoot up next weekend, possibly as high as 16.3C by the 22nd. Once again the cool north westerly is being pushed back into FI...

I agree with this comment, though perhaps not quite as high as 16.3C, both friday and sunday have a lot of cloud around which may dampen maxima, though saturday looks warm and humid with sunshine. Next monday we see the models split, GFS wants its persistant cooler pattern, while the ECWMF keeps a warmer one.

[Stu_London]

Make your mind up Stu. One minute you're infering that a warm last third is possible, the next your guessing that a cooler last third is likely. I think your first guess is nearer the mark, with the GFS progressively backing this up. 16.7 is my guess for the final figure.

I think you may have misread my posts.

I was merely discussing the statistical probabilities when analysing the last third of the month originally. What I actually think that we will see a continuation of what we have seen so far in August which is conditions never deviating that far from average with any warmer interludes offset by slightly below average periods.

Your guess of 16.7 is, of course, still possible, though given that the met office is likely to chop off at least a couple of tenths of a degree when they recalibrate, I would say it is right at the top end of the range and is more likely going to be at least half a degree too high.

[The PIT]

Well GFS is beginning to look a warm or very warm run. Just outside the reliable time frame some very warm nights in the offering. So if it's right areas in the CET zone could averaging 20c for the 24 hr period. Still limping out and again only a few days ago the models were showing a below average run.

[Optimus Prime]

I was merely discussing the statistical probabilities when analysing the last third of the month originally. What I actually think that we will see a continuation of what we have seen so far in August which is conditions never deviating that far from average with any warmer interludes offset by slightly below average periods.

It's either going to be warm average or cold. Can't see there being a mixture of the lot with just a few weeks to go.

[Milhouse]

If i was to make a prediction now i'd say we'll finish average or just below.

[damianslaw]

The CET has been remarkably static during the first half of this month and I can't see much movement in the coming days. At the half way stage you have to call on a very near average CET. I do believe there will be some signficant downward corrections by the months end, recorded values seem to have been consistently higher than expected so far.

This is turning into a very dull August for extremes - symptomatic of a dominant atlantic influence.

[Isolated Frost]

I wonder what the NET would be, possibly about 0.7c under CET?

[The PIT]

Well models hinting at a above average result but we've already seen mad changes which suggested below average.

[stewfox]

This is turning into a very dull August for extremes - symptomatic of a dominant atlantic influence.

With clearing skies a large area of the CET zone should see sub 10c tonight maybe a 8c somewhere ?

Although August does look at present to be very average , temp wise, had to happen one day.

Edited August 17, 2010 by stewfox

[Stu_London]

GFS 06z has an outrun of about 17.4C for the next week (my interpretation).

This would push the CET up to 16.4C by the 24th.

FI suggests something a bit cooler for the last week - perhaps around 15C - but being FI it can be expected to change dramatically in the coming days.

[Gavin P]

I think anyone thats gone for 15.8 or 15.9 is going to do very, very well this month. :winky:

[Milhouse]

I think anyone thats gone for 15.8 or 15.9 is going to do very, very well this month.

I think my 16.6c is at the uppermost limit of where it could end up. Thats providing it stays reasonably warm until the end of the month and the cooler weather keeps getting pushed back.

[Stu_London]

16.0c to 17th

likely to be the same for the 18th

and then back to 15.9C for the 19th

[summer blizzard]

16.0c to 17th

likely to be the same for the 18th

and then back to 15.9C for the 19th

Pretty much agree with that, possibly 15.8C if minima are lower than expected tonight and tommorow (possible given that isotherm is below 5C). Weekend still looks to see a rise of the order of 0.3C, and possibly monday, before both ECWMF and GFS agree on a cooler, more unsettled pattern which swhould knock the CET back a bit, the next potential warm day being a week on friday.

It looks as though we may not beat the 15.4C from 2007 before ajustments, however i am still confident of a below average outcome.

[The PIT]

All eyes on tonight's temps although the beeb were forecasting double temps away from Ireland. Expecting now real change for today poss drop tomorrow then the GFS 12oz starts bringing in a warm spell which on this run away from the North eats well into the remaining days of the month. Yet again the models could change there mind on the next run. Could well be 16.3C by next Tuesday as some very warm nights are coupled with mid twenties day time temps.

[BornFromTheVoid]

16.0c to 17th

likely to be the same for the 18th

and then back to 15.9C for the 19th

Agreed. Going by the GFS 12z, we'd be back up to 16.0C by the 20th, 16.1 or 16.2C by the 21st, 16.3C by the 22nd, 16.4C by the 23rd. That's being quite conservative though and adjusting the the GFS's usual problems, taking it literally, we'd be at 16.5/6 by the 23rd having had our 2 highest daily averages of the summer!

[BornFromTheVoid]

16.0C to the 17th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday came in at 16.9C. Minimum is down as 9.9C for today, despite the GFS predicting it to be around 8C for the last week or so, right up till last night! Todays max looks to be around 19C, so a drop back to 15.9C likely for tomorrow. Looks like no change the next day, but then we see a few days of rises after that, ending up about 16.4C to the 22nd. A gradual drop looks likely there after, so around 16.2C by the 25th is my guess.

[coram]

GFS 06z has an outrun of about 17.4C for the next week (my interpretation).

This would push the CET up to 16.4C by the 24th.

FI suggests something a bit cooler for the last week - perhaps around 15C - but being FI it can be expected to change dramatically in the coming days.

Hi Stu,

It's looking increasingly likely that your prediction of a cool, warm or average last week will be pretty accurate. Personally, I think that next week will be slightly warmer than you anticipate, with the CET standing at 16.5 coming in to the last week. Just a hint in the models that there could be a pressure rise during the last week of the month, leading to a a settled and, in terms of temperature, slightly above average last few days. My guess for the final figure is 16.7.

[Optimus Prime]

based on the current models there is NO way it'll be upto 16.7c to the 31st. Perhaps 16.2c before adjustments. 15.9c final figure.

[The PIT]

A cooler night and a cooler day than forecast here. So things don't always go to plan. One of the reasons why you never say never. This evening GFS has swung back too a cooler outlook after this weekend.

We should have a good idea by next weekend not this one coming.