August CET

[summer blizzard]

based on the current models there is NO way it'll be upto 16.7c to the 31st. Perhaps 16.2c before adjustments. 15.9c final figure.

Pretty much agree, GEM, GFS and ECWMF all agree that the CET will drop back below average next tuesday-thursday, even if we get a suprise heatwave in the last few days, after ajustments we are still looking at a below average outcome. It does not look like we will beat 2007 now, however we are likely to beat the 16.1C set in 2006.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The 12z GFS is a little cooler during the upcoming warm spell. It gradually drops further below average as we progress thereafter. If it goes as shown, and we have the downward corrections expected I'd say the most likely landing zone is now between 15.6C and 16.4C before corrections and 15.3-16.1C after.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Both GFS and ECM looking much cooler this morning, downgrading the warmth this weekend and subsequently it looks like we'll only climb to 16.2C over the weekend, before dropping quite fast afterward, to 16.0C by the 25th now.

[Stu_London]

CET to the 18th - 15.9C

Yesterday came in at 14.7C

Last night was 11.9C

tomorrow should stay at 15.9C but could nudge back up to 16.0C (to 2 decimals we are at 15.94C)

Beginning to think my punt will be on the high side and somewhere in the mid 15s might be the order.

[damianslaw]

The odds on a below average month appear to be increasing by the day... Can't see anything other than a slightly above CET at best uppermost limit probably 16.4 degrees. Suspect final outcome between 15.5 and 16.

[summer blizzard]

With the CET at 15.9C to the 18th, we are likely to see a rise to 16.2C by monday, however all models agree on a cool week until friday when they begin to diverge, however by then, the CET should be around 15.8C, so a below average month is looking about 80% certain.

[BornFromTheVoid]

15.9C to the 19th.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 15.6C. Todays min is 14.5C, maxes look around 22C today so a rise to 16.0C is likely. We will probably peak at around 16.3C on the 22nd before what looks like a gradual slide back for the rest of the month.

I'd say a finsih somewhere between 15.6C and 16.2C before adjustments looks likely.

[TonyH]

15.9C to the 19th.

http://hadobs.metoff..._info_mean.html

Yesterday was 15.6C. Todays min is 14.5C, maxes look around 22C today so a rise to 16.0C is likely. We will probably peak at around 16.3C on the 22nd before what looks like a gradual slide back for the rest of the month.

I'd say a finsih somewhere between 15.6C and 16.2C before adjustments looks likely.

Yet again I am likely to be just a few points on the high side with my judgement guesswork!

[The PIT]

Yup GFS has swung back too a cooler outlook after playing with a warmer one for a while so if it's correct we're back to a below average August again.

[summer blizzard]

CET has risen to 16.0C, however we should see a good drop this week and a stabilisation over next weekend.

[BornFromTheVoid]

16.1C to the 21st.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 17.7C. The minimum for today is down as 13.0C. The GFS has really done the mins terribly lately. For the last week or so it had been forecasting the mins for the last two nights as about 17.5C and 16C, but they actually ended up as 15.0C and 13.0C! Thats quite bad by any standards..

Anyway, max temps today look like being around 21-22C so we should just about reach 16.2C, though it will be close. Will stay steady for the next day, then the fall begins. We should be at 16.0C by the 25th, and 15.7C by the 28th.

I'd say somewhere between 15.5-15.9C before corrections.

[summer blizzard]

16.1C to the 21st.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 17.7C. The minimum for today is down as 13.0C. The GFS has really done the mins terribly lately. For the last week or so it had been forecasting the mins for the last two nights as about 17.5C and 16C, but they actually ended up as 15.0C and 13.0C! Thats quite bad by any standards..

Anyway, max temps today look like being around 21-22C so we should just about reach 16.2C, though it will be close. Will stay steady for the next day, then the fall begins. We should be at 16.0C by the 25th, and 15.7C by the 28th.

I'd say somewhere between 15.5-15.9C before corrections.

Lets hope that minima are lower than forecasted this week, even the BBC are commenting on a chilly night tuesday into wednesday, Lerwick is already in the cool air and is forecasted 6C tonight.

I agree with your assesment, and i expect the final figure to be 15.4C before ajustments because aside from thursday and friday which could develiver some small upward movement, all other days look cool.

[summer blizzard]

If GFS12z were to believe the only day that could develiver a rise is thursday and friday would develiver a drop, low 15's looking likely especially after what could be a big ajjustment. Only a 0.2C difference at the moment.

Edited August 22, 2010 by summer blizzard

[damianslaw]

I'm expecting at least a 0.2 degree deduction this month perhaps 0.3 or even 0.4, with this mind and a preety cool few days ahead something close to 15.5 degrees is likely to be the finishing number which will result in a cooler than average month. It has been a very poor month for high maxima - I think 27 degrees has been the highest so far and Heathrow hasn't seen anything above 25 degrees. Much of the north has only seen 70f on one day at best - very very poor for August - it has been minima which has prevented this month being appreciably below average.

Edited August 22, 2010 by damianslaw

[Milhouse]

Even if we do end up with a final figure of 15.5c it would still give a Summer CET of 0.3 above average and the warmest for 4 years.

[BornFromTheVoid]

16.1C (16.15) to the 22nd

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 17.0C. Minimum for today is 13.1C, max temperatures look around 19C, so we'll either stay steady or rise to 16.2C if maxes get much above 19C.

Going by the 06z GFS, after that we begin to drop, 16.0C by the 25th, 15.7C by the 29th and 15.6C by the 30th. As things can change quite a lot at that range, I'd say between 15.4-15.8C the likely finishing point before corrections, making my 15.9C too high

[Optimus Prime]

And my 15.0c too low.

Climate-uk has Scotland averaging the highest against the average mean at 0.1c above average. Wales is the lowest at 0.6c below normal and also Northern Ireland and Ireland 0.5c below. West seems to have been coolest relative to the average with North and South near normal.

Edited August 23, 2010 by Optimus Prime

[Gavin P]

16.1C (16.15) to the 22nd

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 17.0C. Minimum for today is 13.1C, max temperatures look around 19C, so we'll either stay steady or rise to 16.2C if maxes get much above 19C.

Todays maxima seems to have been held down at around 16-18c because of the rain and showers that's been about.

[TonyH]

I'm expecting at least a 0.2 degree deduction this month perhaps 0.3 or even 0.4, with this mind and a preety cool few days ahead something close to 15.5 degrees is likely to be the finishing number which will result in a cooler than average month. It has been a very poor month for high maxima - I think 27 degrees has been the highest so far and Heathrow hasn't seen anything above 25 degrees. Much of the north has only seen 70f on one day at best - very very poor for August - it has been minima which has prevented this month being appreciably below average.

Just inter:ested as to how you know there will be adjustments and by how much? Clever stuff.

[damianslaw]

And my 15.0c too low.

Climate-uk has Scotland averaging the highest against the average mean at 0.1c above average. Wales is the lowest at 0.6c below normal and also Northern Ireland and Ireland 0.5c below. West seems to have been coolest relative to the average with North and South near normal.

Sounds about right - the influence of a predominate airflow from between south west and north west.

[BornFromTheVoid]

16.1C to the 23rd

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 15.7. Minimum for today is 10.3C and the max looks like being between 17 and 18C so a drop to 16.0C by tomorrow is possible. After that 15.8C by the 27th, 15.5/6 by the 30th and finishing on 15.5C. Due to the GFS handling minimas terribly lately, I'd say a finishing point is most likely between 15.4C and 15.7C before corrections, so a real chance of beating 2007.

[Gavin P]

16.1C to the 23rd

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Yesterday was 15.7. Minimum for today is 10.3C and the max looks like being between 17 and 18C so a drop to 16.0C by tomorrow is possible. After that 15.8C by the 27th, 15.5/6 by the 30th and finishing on 15.5C. Due to the GFS handling minimas terribly lately, I'd say a finishing point is most likely between 15.4C and 15.7C before corrections, so a real chance of beating 2007.

Coolest August since 1993 still looks viable, with corrections?

Edited August 24, 2010 by Gavin P

[summer blizzard]

Coolest August since 1993 still looks viable, with corrections?

Indeed, we should get at least a 0.2C correction, possibly more and there is a chance we may match 2007 before ajustments anyway.

When was the last time June had a higher CET than August?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Indeed, we should get at least a 0.2C correction, possibly more and there is a chance we may match 2007 before ajustments anyway.

When was the last time June had a higher CET than August?

1993 I believe. June CET 15.0C, August 14.6C.

[Snowyowl9]

It looks close to maybe getting the coolest august since 1993.

15.4c in 2007 but there were colder nights then.

Surpressed max for the south with a east or NE-ly and wet next 3 days,then cooler NW-lys and chilly nights.

I would`nt like to bet either way.