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Phil UK Apprentice

Phil UK

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. UK
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. UK
Posted

Mmmm. Looks like an East / West invasion at the moment. Current conditions in Solihull, West Midlands are generally cloudy but with the Sun popping out now and then but the satellite pic for the South East looks very interesting. Heavy rain for you lot later maybe?

Could be an interesting day. :lol:

Phil.

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vortex_liam Rookie

vortex_liam

Posted
  • Location: West London - ASL 36.85m/120ft
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/stormy
  • Location: West London - ASL 36.85m/120ft
Posted

Mmmm. Looks like an East / West invasion at the moment. Current conditions in Solihull, West Midlands are generally cloudy but with the Sun popping out now and then but the satellite pic for the South East looks very interesting. Heavy rain for you lot later maybe?

Could be an interesting day. :)

Phil.

Its Cirrostratus :p

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Joey.G Contributor

Joey.G

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, humid & exciting
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

I not putting my hope up right now my best day is next sat but long way off yet

The anticipation is half the fun! Talking long way off, GFS shows a plume next monday (23rd) Dreamcasting at that range I know but nice to see :p

Its even drawn a picture:

Rtavn1924.png

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Stormyking Rising Star

Stormyking

Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
Posted

The anticipation is half the fun! Talking long way off, GFS shows a plume next monday (23rd) Dreamcasting at that range I know but nice to see :rofl:

Its even drawn a picture:

Rtavn1924.png

This would be nice even though it is so far off but it would be nice to see the last bit of summer to go off with a BANG !! :p

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

The anticipation is half the fun! Talking long way off, GFS shows a plume next monday (23rd) Dreamcasting at that range I know but nice to see :p

Its even drawn a picture:

Rtavn1924.png

What do the dots mean in that chart?

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Phil UK Apprentice

Phil UK

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. UK
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. UK
Posted (edited)

What do the dots mean in that chart?

It means, Backtrack that the darker the colours,/ dots the more intense the rain will be. :p

Phil.

Edited by Phil UK
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Alex95 Contributor

Alex95

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and heat, North Sea snow
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
Posted

Intense thunderstorm in the French Alps, 4 out of the last 5 have been stormy

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Alex95 Contributor

Alex95

Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and heat, North Sea snow
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
Posted

It's seems to be passing away now, some pretty loud thunder echoing round the mountains and about 30 seconds of extremely strong winds, probably over 70mph. Could it have been a gust front?

Scrap that, very loud crack of thunder

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

It means, Backtrack that the darker the colours,/ dots the more intense the rain will be. :)

Phil.

Thanks Phil. Much appreciated!

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted

Any storms this week for the south? cant see data for a while and not seen the models for a few days, and no ones saying any risk until next wkend ,anything changed? Thanks.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

Any storms this week for the south? cant see data for a while and not seen the models for a few days, and no ones saying any risk until next wkend ,anything changed? Thanks.

MU_London_avn.png

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Phil UK Apprentice

Phil UK

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. UK
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. UK
Posted

I think a slight chance for your part of the world today, Nimbilus. Otherwise we are looking at Wednesday night and moreover next Sunday, but too early to speculate on that at this time.

Phil.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

I think a slight chance for your part of the world today, Nimbilus.

All a bit too far East today I fear, a Kent clipper for rain possibly and everything else is in the Low Countries

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Phil UK Apprentice

Phil UK

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. UK
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. UK
Posted

That's why I said 'Slight chance', Coast. Other than that then convective, which again, seems unlikely with a front coming in from the west.

Is it me or are the Low countries nicking our storms this Summer? Looking at the radar now, I envy them! :cold:

Phil.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

Is it me or are the Low countries nicking our storms this Summer? Looking at the radar now, I envy them! :cold:

Well at least there is a period of possibility form the 21st to look forward to and see how it develops, maybe even tomorrow afternoon? :cold:

Rtavn4211.png

gfs_kili_eur54.png

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Phil UK Apprentice

Phil UK

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. UK
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. UK
Posted

I've pencilled in 18th and 22nd, given the surface pressure charts. :cold: But with it being Solihull... Probably not! dry.gif

Phil.

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Phil UK Apprentice

Phil UK

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. UK
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. UK
Posted

Never give up hope, Stuart. And besides, You lot in Scotland / borders will probably hog all the snow this coming Winter anyway. :cold:

Phil. (Starved of a proper storm since 1st May 2010!)

Think there might be a chance of some convective cells tomorrow afternoon along and ahead of waving cold front moving E across the country, as fairly moist airmass is lifted ahead of the front. Current GFS output is modelling modest instability across Midlands, EA and NE England with fairly average lapse rate, so potential for an isolated thunderstorm or two. Also, GFS models significant dry air in the mid-levels, which would enhance convective instability. Might also be a small period of CAPE and sufficient DL shear overlap around mid-late afternoon for cell organisation.

I see where you're coming from, Weather 09. But I think more for the east and south east if anything thundery does come about.

That said, I could be totally wrong and maybe I'll chalk up the number two proper storm. :cold:

Phil.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

Think there might be a chance of some convective cells tomorrow afternoon along and ahead of waving cold front moving E across the country

It's certainly modelled, we've just got to hope that the odds are stacked for us - this summer has been more disappointing than England's performance in South Africa!!!

skew0.446957641820521.png

skew0.166426179305748.png

skew0.931953867738233.png

Interestingly, UKMO has the possibility starting towards the North and West at lunchtime:

21OWS_EUROPE_MODEL-DATA_UKMO-GLOBAL_TS-THREAT_SFC_72_12Z.png

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Jane Louise Aficionado

Jane Louise

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
Posted

Tomorrow afternoon is looking good for my area according to todays storm risk on NW, but Met Office seems to think different. Also Saturday and Sunday has some potential but I'm sure it will change as the week goes on. But it's all looking good so far.:whistling:

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