7th Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Report

[philglossop]

A small thunderstorm rumbling up the channel at the moment- only 1 flash and 2 rumbles so far.

[Robbie Garrett]

You need to take into consideration the rotation of the low centre which is around the SW approaches at the moment.

As the evening goes on it will organise the randbands into clumps and begin sucking them more into the swirl...where that sends the rain is anyone's guess

Yeah, fully aware of that - I was looking at the Metoffice F215 charts,and the Trough seems to be more north than forecasted, and if I am correct the band of weather should be pushed more northernly direction than what it was 3-4 hours ago.

Let's see but I haven't seen a night thunderstorm since I was little!

[TonyH]

If you live in Lichfield, then you're not in the No Storm Club....Lichfield has had more than one storm this year!

I told him that a month back!

[TheToastPeople]

Stop eating all the rain Milton Keynes!!

[Snowangel-MK]

Stop eating all the rain Milton Keynes!!

It hasn't rained here !!

[Static Prevails]

It's raining here in Chesterfield. That's normally a miracle to achieve as well.

[D-J-V]

Hey Folks,

I am down in Brighton, what dya reckon...worth getting in the car in a bit and finsing a hill to watch these things roll by?

Just looking at whats coming up from the channel in a NNE direction.....

[Harry]

Yeah, fully aware of that - I was looking at the Metoffice F215 charts,and the Trough seems to be more north than forecasted, and if I am correct the band of weather should be pushed more northernly direction than what it was 3-4 hours ago.

Let's see but I haven't seen a night thunderstorm since I was little!

Ah right cool, apologies - there's such wide ranging knowledge on here you never know how to pitch a response

Going to be an interest 2-3 hours radar watching!!

Noticed a couple of thunderstorms firing across the Channel initiated by the approaching Low

[TonyH]

No TL but really torrential downpours in the area this afternoon.

While we were out the WS2300 recorded a rain rate of 102mm/ hour @ 1552, with 3mm in just 7 minutes.

On checking the reply of my NW radar- the cell causing this downpour was very narrow, less than 2 miles wide!

Edited August 7, 2011 by Tonyh

[Harry]

Hey Folks,

I am down in Brighton, what dya reckon...worth getting in the car in a bit and finsing a hill to watch these things roll by?

Just looking at whats coming up from the channel in a NNE direction.....

Not a clue matey, lol!

Regional BBC forecasts very keen for thundery action tonight, however with the advancing low the precip is rapidly intensifying/decaying at different moments - clumps are moving E on minute, then NE, then North!

There is reasonable confidence heavy rain/T'storms will come along the coast if not slightly further inland, so wouldnt worry to much about going for higher ground tbh

H

[TheToastPeople]

It hasn't rained here !!

Really? Damn, the rain seems to vanish just before it reaches mk and has been all day! whats going on!?!

[A.J]

Hate to say it, but looks like things are starting to die down in the west midlands/wales...showers/storms look to be decaying and losing identity...hope I'm wrong!

[lewisosd]

Is it going to be worth a trip down to Felixstowe tonight? Closest I can get really without racking up to many miles in my car!

[Robbie Garrett]

Ah right cool, apologies - there's such wide ranging knowledge on here you never know how to pitch a response

Going to be an interest 2-3 hours radar watching!!

Noticed a couple of thunderstorms firing across the Channel initiated by the approaching Low

I don't know everything though, just basic Aviation Met - which has come in handy in saving my life on probably a many of an occasion! Especially with a TSRA up your bum! (Thunderstorm and Rain)

It should be good fun tonight, I have no work tomorrow so fancy watching it a bit tonight - there's a lot of that stuff in the upper atmosphere at the moment, Altocumulus etc - I'll take a picture in a minute, isn't that generally a sign of TS later in the day??

[Costa Del Fal]

Massive downpour at about 7:20. Radar showing Lightning present too.

[Harry]

I don't know everything though, just basic Aviation Met - which has come in handy in saving my life on probably a many of an occasion! Especially with a TSRA up your bum! (Thunderstorm and Rain)

It should be good fun tonight, I have no work tomorrow so fancy watching it a bit tonight - there's a lot of that stuff in the upper atmosphere at the moment, Altocumulus etc - I'll take a picture in a minute, isn't that generally a sign of TS later in the day??

Altocumulus can indicate mid level instability, more so Altocumulus Castellanus though which is a decent precursor!

Skies here are clearing some what after being packed with Ac earlier....going to be quite a pleasant sunset I reckon

EDIT - PHWOOOAR rapid intensification in the channel at the moment!!

It's beginning to look a little like the centre of the low is shifting position to be off the south coast (or a second centre of rotation forming) - if that happens that's pony! If not, then I'm hoping it might make some tracks inland!

Edited August 7, 2011 by Harry

[Chris K]

The clouds have suddenly slowed down so much theyre hardly moving now its weird! Really dark (although sunset is approaching) and raining. Showers breaking out around Plymouth and curling around the centre of the low pressure but not sure if theres much chance of it reaching here. The rain south of Portsmouth/Isle of Wight looks interesting!

[Marcus_surfer]

Huge torrential downpour here earlier, the winds gusted around 30-35mph and we had 15mm of rain in under 15 minutes. The lightning was so close it knocked out the internet but i've got it working again now.

[Robbie Garrett]

Altocumulus can indicate mid level instability, more so Altocumulus Castellanus though which is a decent precursor!

Skies here are clearing some what after being packed with Ac earlier....going to be quite a pleasant sunset I reckon

I'll take a photo in a minute, see what you think!

[Staffordshire]

I told him that a month back!

Well if distant rumbles count as a storm I have had one, but that dosent really cut it.

[Harry]

Going to get soggy on the IoW in a mo!

I dare say Stormyking will be on shortly

[A.J]

Well if distant rumbles count as a storm I have had one, but that dosent really cut it.

It looks like I had my yearly storm allowance in one evening, may 9th, mind you, I call it The L'oreal Day - Because it was worth it! :lol:

[Staffordshire]

It looks like I had my yearly storm allowance in one evening, may 9th, mind you, I call it The L'oreal Day - Because it was worth it! :lol:

hehe, you're in Stafford right?

[A.J]

hehe, you're in Stafford right?

a few miles to the south...Penkridge -snow shield capital of South Staffs!

I wish I was back in my hometown of Brixham today, my sis has reported 3 thunderstorms today!

[Harry]

Must be looking nice along the S Coast...I can see high topped clouds, very dark looking, way off to the WSW and SW (that's the scope of my new view of the 'interesting' directions in Rochester )

Edited August 7, 2011 by Harry