7th Aug 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Report

[Jane Louise]

Omg well done Phil. I've had nothing but a light shower here.I doubt I won't even see anything tonight either.still camping in hope of a storm grrrr

[Chris K]

Cool and overcast/grey gloud lingering about. Clouds seemed to have 'flattened'. Think ive missed out again on anything interesting bar a few rumbles of thunder. With nothing predicted in the near future either it doesnt look good..

The only hope I have left of seeing anything is if something swings round to us when the surface low passes by along the channel. Doesnt look like it though. Congrats to people who made it out of the NSC haha. At least ive managed to hear those 5 distant rumbles of thunder this year ey?

[TheToastPeople]

This just missed me by a few miles http://www.cliftonweather.co.uk/images/cam1.jpg

[JamieUK]

Seeing as there is not much going on here, I found a live cam for Warsaw, Poland, which looks to be hit by a big thunderstorm soon. http://www.ittv.pl/efuzja/

Edited August 7, 2011 by JamieUK

[Coast]

Well, pleased to see that the charts, models and forecasts all came good so far today and those areas that were highlighted first thing seem to have enjoyed the storms!

Have just watched the 18.00 hrs BBC South East Today forecast and Kaddy Lee Preston ( :wub: )

has just confirmed that we are in for the next round of light shows during the overnight period, again as hoped for first thing today!!!!

Going to be tired in the morning, but like lets hope its worth it!

Oh boy, is there going to be some rain!!!

Spout threat too far to the South?

[A.J]

There must only be 3 or 4 of us now, I wonder if jane is out ...

If you live in Lichfield, then you're not in the No Storm Club....Lichfield has had more than one storm this year!

[Weather Wizard]

Does anyone know what happened to ESTOFEX today???

[A.J]

Looks like some healthy radar echoes are passing through Bridgnorth heading towards Codsall then Cannock...passing just to my south!

[Phelpsy]

well im still in the nsc! consoling myself with lemon cheesecake slices lol! looking dark to my south south west now.

[Chris K]

Dark clouds approaching fast from my S/SW. radar picking up heavy rainfall heading along the Severn Estuary. Think ive heard very distant rumbles but nothing definate yet.

[Coast]

Good grief, it's marginal later, but it might just give us a few claps and flashes around 21.00 to 23.00 hrs:

[Lynxus]

I suppose we can only hope that these skywarn people have it right for severe weather later tonight..

Unlikely, but fingers crossed.

[Coast]

I suppose we can only hope that these skywarn people have it right for severe weather later tonight..

Unlikely, but fingers crossed.

Absolutely!

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #042

ISSUED: 1300UTC SUNDAY 7TH AUGUST 2011 (GJ/SM/DP)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

SOUTH WALES

SOUTHWEST ENGLAND

SOUTHERN ENGLAND

SOUTHEAST ENGLAND

MIDLANDS (ALL REGIONS)

EAST ANGLIA

IN EFFECT FROM 1300UTC SUNDAY 7TH UNTIL 0300UTC MONDAY 8TH AUGUST 2011

UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE UK WITH SURFACE CENTRE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN UK DURING THE EVENING GENERATING INTENSE CONVECTION

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTS...FUNNELS...WEAK TORNADOES...LIGHTNING...HAIL

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONFIDENCE OF A POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO ACROSS SOUTH WALES, SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ENGLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE THERE EXISTS A GOOD CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, PERHAPS WITH SOME SEVERITY, AS PER WATCH AREAS. AN UPPER COLD POOL OF -22C/500MB IS GENERATING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH THE HAIL/LIGHTNING RISK IS ONLY MODEST THERE ARE GOOD CHANCES FOR FUNNELS AND STRONG GUSTS AROUND SOUTHERN COASTS AND INLAND OF SUCH. FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARDS, A SURFACE LOW CIRCULATION MOVES INTO SOUTH WALES AND THE SOUTHWEST OF ENGLAND GENERATING SOME VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS AND A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ENGLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT, INSPIRING HEAVY PRECIP CORES WITH RAIN RATES POTENTIALLY UP TO 30MM PER HOUR. THIS WATCH MAY BE UPDATED OR UPGRADED.

I still think the biggest threat is a high level thunderstorm with funnels etc just over the other side of the Channel

[Stormraider]

Looks like some healthy radar echoes are passing through Bridgnorth heading towards Codsall then Cannock...passing just to my south!

Aye, dark to my south... so very close!

[lewisosd]

Big area of rain heading my way on radar. Produced strikes earlier (16:30) as it was coming between Oxford and London. Wondering if this is going to blow up one last time before heading out to sea?

[Chris K]

I suppose we can only hope that these skywarn people have it right for severe weather later tonight..

Unlikely, but fingers crossed.

I can see how it could develop along the South Coast, but im losing any hope of it managing to reach far north enough if it did happen. Will just have to see what happens! Getting darker and darker above me now think we're about to get a heavy downpour.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

raintoday radar seems knackered? see an anvil to my ENE

[Costa Del Fal]

Radar quite alive over the West Midlands now.

[Harry]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/2172?area=ME1

Bugger!!! Doesn't look that cushty for my area, looks as though it could be an E/S Kent show!!

I am tempted to go for a drive though....I'm desperate for some night time lightning!

Either way, no-one does thunder forecasts like it - Kirkwood's not a patch on our Kaddy

Edited August 7, 2011 by Harry

[Staffordshire]

If you live in Lichfield, then you're not in the No Storm Club....Lichfield has had more than one storm this year!

I can ssure you I have seen no lightening whatsoever, I've heard some distant rumbles, may 9th being one of them, my friend in burntwood about 4-6 miles down the road just clipped that storm...

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Missed us all but was a showery day Not expecting much tonight good luck all

[Staffordshire]

Radar quite alive over the West Midlands now.

Anything heading my way?

[Gord]

Lots of showers rattling through here now and some very stormy looking skies.

[TheToastPeople]

Another shower fading away on the radar as it gets close. £$&%! Heading to my friends flat in a bit so might see some distant flashes as it gets dark, good luck to the lucky ones!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I am some what confused or being really stupid..Probs the second one..But what is actually "meant" to be thunderstorms tonight? Or are we still waiting for it to "happen" as there is a lot of precipitation in the channel heading my way..Is that it?