Southern England Regional Discussion Thread

[Beasterly]

Pressure here is dropping quite quickly too. 992.4mb at the moment

[WhiteFox]

BTW, everyone should look at this page: http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ and look at the pressure chart. It shows the centre of the low sitting just south of Lizard Point at 9.38pm.

[Kiwi]

5.7c at 8.00pm

4.3c at 9.50pm

Wind changed from SSE to East!!!

Pressure down to 992

Anybody with knowledge care to translate please?! Looking promising?

Yes looking promising

temp here also starting to drop

5.9c at 8.30pm

4.8c at 10pm, dewpoint 1.8

Wind will continue to go around to NE, then N with temps continuing to drop. As long as the precipitation keeps going I reckon we'll have some form of snow by dawn (bit worried by the precipitation though, as it looks to be clearing down in Cornwall already)

[Sungirl]

Of course a pressure drop represents to centre of the system moving closer. As for temps, It's too early. Forecasts don't predict any changeover until the early hours as the system starts moving out and the colder air digs down. I don't suppose you have the dewpoint and wetbulb temps? Just as important as air temperature.

dewpoint 2.7 (got a min of 1.3 and max of 4.6 - don't know what that means)

wetbulb 3.6

temp 4.2 and dropping

hpa 991

Does that help? - thanks for the reply

Info from here... http://www.weatherfamily.org/bracknell/wxhome.html

Edited December 15, 2011 by Sungirl

[kold weather]

Pressure will continue to fall over the next few hours, depending on the track there is an outside chance of it going sub-980mbs.

Anyway rain really coming down for CS England at the moment. NAE isn't that great for the area though the northern section of the region would probably do quite well.

As for change-over, wait till the system is about 100 miles to your east, then you've got a chance.

[gottolovethisweather]

Wind will continue to go around to NE, then N with temps continuing to drop. As long as the precipitation keeps going I reckon we'll have some form of snow by dawn (bit worried by the precipitation though, as it looks to be clearing down in Cornwall already)

I have exactly the same worry as well but initially the forecasts were for the precipitation to still be about come tomorrow's rush hour, hence my worries about the ICE during tomorrow morning.

The Nick Sussex link from the MOD thread, which I reproduced earlier still looks hopeful though.

All to play for still I would hope.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[WhiteFox]

dewpoint 2.7 (got a min of 1.3 and max of 4.6 - don't know what that means)

wetbulb 3.6

temp 4.2 and dropping

hpa 991

Does that help? - thanks for the reply

Info from here... http://www.weatherfamily.org/bracknell/wxhome.html

Looking for a dewpoint of zero or below and wet bulb below 1 for any chance of snow. As KW says, that isn't likely to happen until the centre of the system has passed to the south and then you're hoping for the PPN to keep going. If we see some development of PPN as the cold air digs in then there's a chance. Otherwise, it the conditions are right for snow, but It's dry!

I have exactly the same worry as well but initially the forecasts were for the precipitation to still be about come tomorrow's rush hour, hence my worries about the ICE during tomorrow morning.

The Nick Sussex link from the MOD thread, which I reproduced earlier still looks hopeful though.

All to play for still I would hope.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

It's a developing system, and the fax charts show an occlusion trailing the system, so that *may* suggest the PPN picking up as the colder air cuts in. Maybe not though!

[Sungirl]

PPN? *blushes*

[sclarke]

Not sure we'll get anything in Southampton......anyone else have any thoughts on our chances? I'm thinking more of a rain/sleet event here.

[Mark Neal.]

A relative who lives in the cotswolds this side(oxon) says it is snowing in Charlbury.

[Isolated Frost]

PPN? *blushes*

Precipitation Feel free to ask any questions, our friendly bunch will be first to reply!

[gottolovethisweather]

It's a developing system, and the fax charts show an occlusion trailing the system, so that *may* suggest the PPN picking up as the colder air cuts in. Maybe not though!

Thanks, can you keep us informed of the latest on this where possible, that'll be much appreciated. I have NW v5 radar so can track it on that but I would still like to know where we are in real time, if possible.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

PPN? *blushes*

precipitation, nothing rude!

[Sungirl]

Precipitation Feel free to ask any questions, our friendly bunch will be first to reply!

Thank you I am on a steep learing curve for a yearling member!!! And last year was just observing... This year I am trying to educate myself more so please excuse all the Qs... I feel I've learned a lot already in a couple of days... Kind of think if you are interested in something they immerse yourself and you will learn.

thank you

[gottolovethisweather]

Precipitation Feel free to ask any questions, our friendly bunch will be first to reply!

Too quick for me IF, what's your thoughts on this region's potential.

[Sungirl]

lol didn't think anything rude!!! Just didn't know, and you lot seem so clued up... I am a beginner but keen to learn

[Kiwi]

It's a developing system, and the fax charts show an occlusion trailing the system, so that *may* suggest the PPN picking up as the colder air cuts in. Maybe not though!

Thanks happy with that ......and on looking at the netweather radar there looks to be more ppn brewing to the west of the Scilly Isles. (Clear area looks to be centre of the system)

temp 4.6c dewpoint 2.0c

Edited December 15, 2011 by Kiwi

[Mark Neal.]

Temperature dropped down to 3.0c was 3.8c - 45 mins ago. Dew point is now @ 1.4c. Hopefully see a few flakes, can't really see much else! 18z is a downgrade for my area

[Isolated Frost]

Too quick for me IF, what's your thoughts on this region's potential.

Quicky from me but I'd say around 2-6am some snowfall, at times heavy, away from 10-15 miles from the coast generally. A bit of elevation always helps, I think you're fine... by 5-8am the snow reaches the coast but it's generally lighter and more marginal

[katemart]

BTW, everyone should look at this page: http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ and look at the pressure chart. It shows the centre of the low sitting just south of Lizard Point at 9.38pm.

what???!!! Does that really show 105 mph???? Must be a typo, shirley?????

[Mark Neal.]

Dew point has dropped from 1.4c to 0.6c in last 15 mins. A trend?

[gottolovethisweather]

Quicky from me but I'd say around 2-6am some snowfall, at times heavy, away from 10-15 miles from the coast generally. A bit of elevation always helps, I think you're fine... by 5-8am the snow reaches the coast but it's generally lighter and more marginal

Top man.

Take note guys n gals and we'll see what happens. I'm not reporting my temps as such at the moment as they're not moving much, for now.

gottolovethisweather

[Dorset_Weather]

Pressure still falling rapidly 980.8mb falling at -3.4mb/h

Wind 21.1mph gusting 22.8mph

Temp at 6.3c rising 0.3c/h, DP 5.3c

Rain 9.9mm at a rate of 10.4mm/h

[stewfox]

Temperature dropped down to 3.0c was 3.8c - 45 mins ago. Dew point is now @ 1.4c. Hopefully see a few flakes, can't really see much else! 18z is a downgrade for my area

Have you just seen the BBC forecast your in line for a duming like me

[katemart]

Not sure we'll get anything in Southampton......anyone else have any thoughts on our chances? I'm thinking more of a rain/sleet event here.

50:50 for wet snow around rush hour, i would say: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snow;sess=

But I aint giving up on hopes of a blizzard until after the 12z

PS - what about that gust??? http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

[Mark Neal.]

Have you just seen the BBC forecast your in line for a duming like me

Yes but the 18z has precipitation further north and east where the most snow will fall, soon will see. I will be lamp-posting watching/radar for a few hours yet.