Atlantic Storms - January Part 2

[Liam J]

Shap Cumbria hit 82mph @ 23.00hrs and Keswick 68mph, this is exceptional for this location recording 70-80mph gusts. (78mph @ 22.00) Not seen for many many years.

Edited January 4, 2012 by Liam J

[snow raven]

Does anyone think this has the potential to be worse than the storm the UK experienced yesterday?

[knocker]

The peak of this front should be more or less between midnight and 3am, so yeah. I reckon a lot of people have a right to be concerned given the MetO failed epically only 2 days regarding Scotland and their lack of nowcasting which every amateur could see was about to hit that part of the world. they ought to build a couple of windows in that Exeter shed of theirs, might help make up a few minds or two.

Does anyone think this has the potential to be worse than the storm the UK experienced yesterday?

I don't. But then I'm not your favourite person to comment.

Edited January 4, 2012 by Liam J

[Lenticular]

i think one of the reasons that the south is getting quite a good pasting from this system is that the compression from the High to the SW was underestimated, the isobars are quite tight for a long way out from the centre of the low, and the centre is not as well defined as yesterdays?

[scotteboi]

judging by some of the posts on here, essex is getting it quite hard, if it keeps up, it could cause thousands of pounds worth of improvements!...

Very good!! Can I just have the money?

[Insert Name Here]

Thank goodness its calmed right down here and we only have 62mph gusts at drumalbin and 53 at prestwick. Its about time I had a quieter night.

[Team Jo]

It really is a loud old night out there, bins crashing down the road, lots of banging noises, it goes quiet for about 2-3 minutes then there are strong gusts which rattle the windows. Love this type of weather in the winter! The Atlantic has certainly awakened in the last 2 months

Doh! Sorry to hear that, thats the bad part about this weather I suppose

It's cool, it needed re-doing anyway -might kickstart the old man into a trip to B&Q!

[AderynCoch]

Some screaming gusts here at the moment.

I don't think overall it will be as bad as yesterday, but that's like saying Justin Bieber's not as bad as Crazy Frog.

[Team Jo]

Come on Folks, be nice please!

[gottolovethisweather]

Does anyone think this has the potential to be worse than the storm the UK experienced yesterday?

Stay on here Ms Snow Raven and you'll probably find out.

I'm attempting a longer lurk than most nights but I may have to pick up the pieces of this thread in several hours time.

The latest as of 2330 courtesy of weatheronline is here - http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&UP=0&R=310&TYP=windspitze_km_h&ART=tabelle&LANG=en&DATE=1325719800&KEY=UK&LAND=UK&CONT=ukuk&SORT=3&UD=1

Anybody know where the CF currently is? To me it looks like its stretching west to east through Kirkby Lonsdale, Thirsk and Pickering at this moment.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[Aaron]

Poor show Met O.. quite severe here, things blowing all over..

[Cheese Rice]

Twitter is the best source for information it seems.

On BBC Look North/Paul Hudson/National rail etc we are seeing tweets on travel problems...

Northern Rail-INFO: Trains to and from Ilkley are suspended because of a tree on the overhead wires. Buses have been requested

Paul Hudson- Very unpleasant out there this evening, torrential rain across Dales river catchment areas, and gusts 54mph at Bingley, 56mph Ribblehead.

Look North- North Yorkshire Police say the A66 is closed while a tree has fallen on to the A19. Several lorries have also been blown over in high winds

Look North- A powercut in #Meanwood #Leeds is affecting more than 200 homes

North Yorkshire Police- @NYPolice are advising motorists to only make essential journeys due to severe weather. They've had a high number of weather related calls

To see what is happening in your area type your city into the search bar and anything that has been tweeted (posted) with your city in the sentence will pop-up, obviously not all weather related, but you can search anything so you can narrow it down.

http://twitter.com/#!/search-home

[Lenticular]

ESTOFEX did issue a warning about this event last night but i still think the high to the south west is having a greater effect hence the bigger wind field.

Storm Forecast

Valid: Wed 04 Jan 2012 06:00 to Thu 05 Jan 2012 06:00 UTC

Issued: Tue 03 Jan 2012 23:24

Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for a broad area from the British Isles to NW Germany and S Sweden for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A very active baroclinic pattern will persist over most of Western and Northern Europe. Very deep low pressure system with central pressure below 970 hPa will progress from Southern Sweden towards Southern Finland during the forecast period. Weakening dynamics, e.g. strenght of the mid and upper level jet will have an adverse effect on the low, which is already well occluded and is expected to slowly fill. Another strong disturbance has started forming over the Atlantic, fueled by 80 m/s westerly to northwesterly 300 hPa jet-streak. Short wave developing in the exit region of the jet-streak will amplify during the day, as ridge begins to build over the Atlantic with prevailing flow becoming more northwesterly in nature. Again, deep low pressure system will be the result with very strong low level wind fields, especially in its warm sector. Center of the low will likely pass just to the north of the British Isles towards Southern Norway and Denmark.

DISCUSSION

... Late evening and night hours British Isles to BENELUX, NW Germany and W Denmark...

With the arrival of another major baroclinic system, model fields suggest significant dry intrusion behind the jet-streak, possibly spreading partly over the low level warm sector of the surface low. As an interesting note, dry air is expected to penetrate below 700 hPa as suggested by GFS cross sections! A strongly forced convective line seems like a possibility, especially when taking into the account very strong dynamics of the system, even though instability will likely be only marginal at best. 850 hPa flow over 40 m/s ensures very strong wind shear at lower levels and points to the possibility of severe wind gusts and tornadoes within such line. Where exactly will such a line pass is a matter of question, on which models do not agree. Therefore a broad Level 1 is introduced to cover range of possibilities. An update with even an upgrade to Level 2 might follow during the day if situation becomes more certain.

Edited January 4, 2012 by Lenticular

[weatherobsuk]

This is a FORUM catered for amateurs to discuss such weather events like we are seeing now. If you don't like Model/agency bashing then I suggest you stick to lingering onto the site/s you clearly love dearly best otherwise put up a good discussion to why you think the criticism is unwarranted. Saying such discussions is 'bloody boring' doesn't do you any favors here and lacks character.

I've given my account to why the MetO for the SECOND TIME has been a failure today, when even 12 hours ago I was mentioning on this very thread I was expecting to see windfield speeds of +20mph than forecast due to mid-level warm sectors playing out as we are seeing now and lee waves. MetO are still going for 40-60mph gusts when 70-80mph is being seen across a vast swathe..those are damaging in any circumstances and warrant a amber warning, something which ISNT out.

Your turn...

[scotteboi]

I don't. But then I'm not your favourite person to comment.

I dont agree with the METO bashing either as if it was easy or on they were on the money everytime we wouldn't all be chucking our two-penneths in about it, but this is a site for enthusiasts as well as the experts (which is why its so good!) and I suppose everyone is entitlied to thier opinion....but I always keep this old saying in mind " It is better to remain silent and to be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt" - Abraham Lincoln

Shame I dont heed it sometimes!

[Liam J]

I've deleted some posts folks, please try to stay civil to each other?

One line personal digs etc at other members won't be tolerated.

Thank you

[PurpleButterfly]

It has been roaring here since 6pm! As we are the last house and on a corner the wind sounds evil, lots of creaking and low roaring.

Very gusty out, a lot more noise and wind than yesterday.

[Richie V]

71.7Mph... Lights flickering

[martinj2]

I've just come back from Goodison Park dodging wheelie bins in the road, branches strewn everyehere and still howling gale.

This is worse or at least the same as we had other night. I reckon these gusts are 60mph +, yet we were under an amber warning for RAIN! (which we also had).

What the hell happened?

To give you some idea of the wind strength, Tim Howard scored from his own penalty box from a clearance-bounced once and went in like a rocket the other end!!

[Wivenswold]

Lights are flickering here, off to bed.

[Teesdale]

Appalling forecast from Meto/BBC. 81mph Shap, 78mph Keswick and 112mph at GDF. Not even an Amber Alert for wind. Surely once observations are made which contradict forecasts changes should be made and alerts issued. Useless at times.

[Insert Name Here]

I know it is sacrilege to some but it looks like the met office have played another blinder this evening .. .. ..

and so soon after the last time .. .. ..

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/transport/forecasters-scrambled-to-update-advice-as-conditions-worsened.16350053

Some of you guys may believe that it is beyond the pale to dare to suggest that they are fallible but they are paid a fortune and given multi million pound resources to do better than the low tech amateurs that populate this forum but it certainly doesnt seem like they do that consistently from where Im standing. I think they have lost their direction somewhat when they became the met & climate change office.

[weatherobsuk]

Wind beginning to crank up here now as the CF approaches and the winds start to swing more swly ahead of vectoring.

[Lenticular]

Stay on here Ms Snow Raven and you'll probably find out.

I'm attempting a longer lurk than most nights but I may have to pick up the pieces of this thread in several hours time.

The latest as of 2330 courtesy of weatheronline is here - http://www.weatheron...kuk&SORT=3&UD=1

Anybody know where the CF currently is? To me it looks like its stretching west to east through Kirkby Lonsdale, Thirsk and Pickering at this moment.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Looks to be around the north of Manchester in an East/West line, but from the rain radar is losing a bit of its energy. too long over land.

[scotteboi]

Lights are flickering here, off to bed.

Yep, same here, flickering started...wheres my torch?